基于最优插值函数优选的小城镇商业用地地价空间结构分析——以西安市蓝田县城区为例

根据在西安市蓝田县城区调查的商业用地地价资料,利用ArcGis软件,从8种常用的插值方法中,以估计值与观察值的标准差最小为原则,筛选出适合于商业用地建立GRID数据的最优插值函数为克里金指数半变差函数模型,并利用该模型建立了商业用地的地价面,在此基础上对商业用地的地价空间结构进行了分析。结果表明:小城镇商业用地地价的变化呈同心圆结构,即城市中心区地价最高,向外逐渐降低。商业用地地价与道路两侧的商店密度性、临街道路的类型以及文化娱乐设施的分布密度正相关,相关系数分别为0.946、0.693和0.659;而与金融保险机构的个数以及土地所有权的性质相关性不强。     

国家精准扶贫政策对贫困农户脱贫增收的效果评价——基于双重差分模型的检验

基于重庆市武陵山区和秦巴山区贫困农户与非贫困农户的调研数据，运用双重差分模型检验精准扶贫政策对贫困农户收入增长的影响。结果表明，贫困农户在精准扶贫政策的支持下，家庭人均纯收入增长显著，与非贫困农户相比差距进一步缩小；家庭主要收入来源，由单一渠道向多渠道转变，人均种植业收入和人均养殖业收入增长最明显，二者贡献率合计达到61.87%；农户的年龄、家庭人口数量、老人小孩数量、耕地面积、耕作半径、是否发展特色产业等因素对贫困农户家庭人均纯收入影响显著。因此，发展特色产业，解决贫困农户的教育、医疗、住房和土地撂荒问题是保障贫困农户脱贫后稳定增收的关键。     

The determinants of county growth

The determinants of population and employment growth were explored from a broader interregional (as opposed to intraregional) perspective. Data for the 1970s, at the county level of disaggregation, were used to analyze the effects of economic, demographic, and climatic variables on population and employment growth in a simultaneous equation framework. The use of data from the more than 3000 US counties provides a considerably larger testing ground than those used in previous research. The point of departure was a conventional, general equilibrium model in which both households and producers are geographically mobile. The study's dependent variables refer to population, total, and manufacturing employment densities. Family income had a powerful effect in stimulating both population and employment density. A 10% increase in family income led to a 7.9% increase in total and a 9.2% increase in manufacturing employment densities. High family income must stand for high demand, and thus, firms are drawn to an area. High family income also drew households to an area. A 10% increase in family income led to a 5.5% increase in population density. High family income must represent "good" neighborhoods for households. High family income was positively correlated with population and employment density, but in other recent studies either a negative and significant relationship or an insignificant relationship were reported. Local taxes consist of the receipts of county government and those of municipalities, townships, school districts, and special districts within the county. The elasticities reported in Table 4 suggest that a 10% increase in such taxes resulted in about a 0.072% reduction in county population density during the decade. The Industrial Revenue Bonds (IRBs) and the percent of the labor force that is unionized are 2 potential policy instruments at the state level. The study results suggest that IRBs have not stimulated either manufacturing or total employment, and the coefficients were statistically insignificant in the structural equations. The elasticities imply that a 10% increase in percent union reduces total employment by 0.42% and manufacturing employment by 0.18%. The effect on population was tiny. Further, while not intended, the interstate highway program may have been a significant redistributor of population and employment but has not caused immigration of people and jobs from central cities.     

Quenching the Thirst: The Cost of Water in Fragile Environments

Public policy has often addressed the problems of water supply and sanitation from the supply side to the neglect of demand side aspects in developing countries like India. This policy has not only rendered a large number of projects financially unviable but has also resulted in inadequate coverage of aspects such as population and ecological unsustainability. This article, based on household level information from six villages in a water scarce region of India (Rajasthan state), examines inter- and intra-village variations in water use and the costs, direct and indirect, involved in obtaining water. It also estimates households' willingness and ability to pay for water, using the contingent valuation method (CVM). Using qualitative as well as quantitative methods, it is argued that it is the failure of government policy and of institutions which has led to severe water shortages in harsh environments rather than supply or financial bottlenecks per se. While the estimates of price elasticity of water use indicate the feasibility of water pricing in the rural areas, the willingness to pay estimates question the general assumption that rural households are willing to pay 5 per cent of their income/expenditure for water. Various economic and extra economic factors such as household income, low opportunity costs of women and children, and attitudes towards female labour and public goods are vital in influencing the households' willingness to pay for water.     

我国中部地区农村聚居现状及调控模式研究

本文在中部六省社会经济统计数据基础上,结合50个村529份问卷调查数据,从聚居形态、聚居空间、聚居功能、聚居主体以及聚居设施等方面对中部地区农村聚居现状进行全面分析,研究结论显示:中部地区农村聚居密度不均,规模各异,形态多样,总体分布较散;住宅占地面积较大,一户多宅现象明显,农户集中居住意愿强;生产生活形态多样化趋势开始出现,"劳务输出+传统农业"型村庄依然占主体;农户兼业行为增加,幸福感增强,但新型社会问题显现;基础设施相对滞后,公共服务有待完善。针对其现状特征及存在的问题,提出四种适宜的农村聚居调控模式,即转型升级模式、整治更新模式、保护控制模式、迁并转移模式,并深入比较分析了各类型模式的调控主体、调控对象、调控机制、调控路径差异,认为不同类型、不同区域的农村,应选择适宜的农村聚居调控模式,因地制宜,分类实施。     

SPATIAL PRICE COMPETITION WITH CONSUIMERS ON A PLANE,AT INTERSECTIONS,AND ALONG MAIN ROADWAYS*

ABSTRACT. This paper examines two-dimensional price competition on a plane, with a block metric and a square grid of main roadways. One store is located at each intersection of main roadways. Consumer locations include a uniform distribution over the plane, linear concentrations along main roadways, and point concentrations at intersections. Bertrmd-Nash mill price competition is examined first. The equilibrium price depends on the relative numbers of consumers in the three types of locations (and on travel costs per mile and the spacing between stores). If too many consumers are in each point concentration, then the price equilibrium is undermined by a high-price strategy or by mill-price undercutting. Spatial competition with price discrimination is examined next, and compared to Bertrand-Nash mill price competition.     

Educational Outcomes and House Values: A Test of the value added Approach*

Abstract. We use house price hedonics to compare the extent that homeowners value traditional measures of school quality or the “value added” of schooling. Unlike other studies, we use spatial statistics as an identification strategy. Based on our study of 310 school districts and 77,000 house transactions, we find little support for the value added model. Instead, we find that households consistently value a district's average proficiency test scores and expenditures. The elasticity of house prices with respect to school expenditures is 0.49, and an increase in test scores by one standard deviation, ceteris paribus, raises house prices by 7.1 percent.     

What about effective access to cars in motorised households?

Most Canadian urban centres are facing difficulties with public transport systems. As car ownership has increased, urban areas have experienced a long‐term decrease in per capita ridership. At present, a significant proportion of riders in most cities is considered to be transit captives, which usually refers to carless individuals or members of carless households. But, what about members of motorised households without effective or real access to a car as, for instance, two‐income households with only one car? Do these ‘restricted car users’ constitute a significant, but somewhat hidden, segment of the transit market? The initial purpose of this paper was to learn more about individuals with restricted or no‐car access who live in car‐owning households: Who are they? Where do they live? Do their numbers fluctuate significantly throughout the day? More specifically, how has car access in motorised households changed in the past two decades? Sociospatial profiles of motorised household members with restricted car access are presented for 1981 and 1996. The second purpose was to analyse restricted car access in motorised households by using a multivariate model of car access for motorised households in the Québec metropolitan area. To achieve these objectives, we developed a logical typology of forms of ‘restricted car access’ based on a combination of variables, or resources, qualifying the degree of car access enjoyed by individuals at any given moment during the day: availability of a car, possession of a driver's licence and a driver at the disposal of other household members. This typology was then applied to the 1981 and 1996 origin–destination survey data obtained from the Québec Census Metropolitan Area.     

Aggregation of Sampling Units: An Analytical Solution to Predict Variance

Geographical variables generally show spatially structured patterns corresponding to intrinsic characteristics of the environment. The size of the sampling unit has a critical effect on our perception of phenomena and is closely related to the variance and correlation structure of the data. Geostatistical theory uses analytical relationships for change of support (change of sampling unit size), allowing prediction of the variance and autocorrelation structure that would be observed if a survey was conducted using different sampling unit sizes. To check the geostatistical predictions, we use a test case about tree density in the tropical rain forest of the Pasoh Reserve, Malaysia. This data set contains exhaustive information about individual tree locations, so it allows us to simulate and compare various sampling designs. The original data set was reorganized to compute tree densities for 5 times 5-, 10 times 10-, and 20 times 20-meter quadrat sizes. Based upon the 5 times 5-meter data set, the spatial structure is modeled using a nugget effect (white noise) plus an exponential model. The change of support relationships, using within-quadrat variances inferred from the variogram model, predict the spatial autocorrelation structure and new variances corresponding to 10 times 10-meter and 20 times 20-meter quadrats. The theoretical and empirical results agreed closely, whereas neglecting the autocorrelation structure would have led to largely underestimating the variance. As the quadrat size increases, the range of autocorrelation increases, while the variance and the proportion of noise in the data decrease.     

Rainwater Tank Households: Water Savers or Water Users?

This paper provides the first published post‐installation analysis of retrofitted rainwater tanks and their effects on mains water consumption. The study aimed to determine the average mains water reductions achieved in households with recently installed rainwater tanks and compare this figure with wider community consumption. The social and cultural impacts of rainwater tank ownership were also explored to understand how rainwater is used and perceived. The results show that during the period of analysis, the drought years of 2005–2007, 7125 or 8% of Illawarra households installed a tank. Comparison of mains water consumption for two years before and after installation shows that rainwater tank households reduced their mains water consumption about the same amount (10.26%) as the wider community (10.8%). The social and cultural components reveal three main groups of households. The largest group, water users, had a desire for water autonomy and independence to continue previously enjoyed water practices that had been restricted. Among a light green group, tanks were part of a package of overtly pro‐environmental behaviours that did not necessarily change consumption patterns. A frugal group, many of whom had been raised in rural areas, were the main water savers. Perception of tank water quality was shown to be an influential determinant of how rainwater was used, particularly for connections internal to the house. This study shows that rainwater tanks have the potential to achieve significant water savings, but if water‐intensive behaviours are not modified, and rainwater tanks are not plumbed indoors, the potential of this alternative water source will not be met. Currently, rainwater tanks facilitate water users as much as water savers.     

Migrant household homeownership outcomes in large Chinese cities - the sustained impact of hukou

Homeownership by migrant households in large Chinese cities is increasingly evident and sometimes blamed for driving up local housing prices. Hukou reform grants local hukou to migrants in small cities while it allows large cities to set up hukou entry barriers to control migration. This paper explores whether migrant households’ micro-level characteristics and macro-level urban policies relating to hukou reform have any impact on their housing tenure choices. Using data from a 2009 survey of migrant households in six large cities, this study adopts logistic regression models to examine factors influencing labor migrant households’ tenure decisions. We find that household income and head of household hukou type, contribution to pension fund, and enrollment in health insurance all positively predict homeownership. Migrant households are more likely to be found in cities with larger population size. We argue that city entry barriers create new forms of institutional haves and have-nots and new forms of inequality. The sustained impact of previous hukou types suggests inherited inequalities through intergenerational wealth transfer, which calls for targeted welfare policies to mediate.     

“A Chronicle of a Death Foretold”: Urban Expansion and Land Consumption in Rome,Italy

The article analyses the long-term changes in the spatial distribution and density of the urban settlements in Rome (Italy), a compact Mediterranean city recently undergoing low- and medium-density expansion. Eight density classes were considered: no buildings, <0.5 buildings per hectare, 0.5–1.0, 1–2, 2–3, 3–5, 5–10, >10 buildings per hectare. Non-urbanized land amounted to 89% of the investigated area in 1919 and fell to 30% in 2001. Building density increased over time suggesting that both concentration and diffusion processes occurred in the study area. During 1919–2001, the building density was stable in only 37% of the investigated land. In that period, the largest part of the area (47%) underwent a low increase in building density, while 12% of the area passed from a low-density to a high-density class. Settlement density decreased rapidly with the distance from the city centre in 1919 and 1945, while a marked increase was observed in areas progressively further away from Rome since 1961. In recent years, land consumption was partly determined by the planning strategies adopted by Rome's municipality with the aim of producing a more balanced and polycentric region. More effective policies preserving the quality of the environment and promoting the sustainable development of peri-urban Mediterranean regions are needed.     

A SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL AUTOREGRESSIVE LOCAL ESTIMATION FOR THE PARIS HOUSING MARKET

ABSTRACT This original study examines the potential of a spatiotemporal autoregressive Local (LSTAR) approach in modeling transaction prices for the housing market in inner Paris. We use a data set from the Paris Region notary office (Chambre des notaires d’Île‐de‐France) which consists of approximately 250,000 transactions units between the first quarter of 1990 and the end of 2005. We use the exact X–Y coordinates and transaction date to spatially and temporally sort each transaction. We first choose to use the STAR approach proposed by Pace et al., 1998 . This method incorporates a spatiotemporal filtering process into the conventional hedonic function and attempts to correct for spatial and temporal correlative effects. We find significant estimates of spatial dependence effects. Moreover, using an original methodology, we find evidence of a strong presence of both spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the model. It suggests that spatial and temporal drifts in households socio‐economic profiles and local housing market structure effects are certainly major determinants of the price level for the Paris Housing Market.     

西安市人口分布模式初探

本文通过分析西安市区人口分布特征,发现其总趋势表现为:以新城广场为中心向四周递减。试以C·克拉克经验公式d=d₀e^-βx对1990、1982、1964年三次人口普查资料进行回归分析,分别得以下三式:
dx=50892.45e^-0.32924x
dx=51974.922e^-0.38286x
dx=55072.095e^-0.46977x
可是,从1964-1990年,市区中心的人口密度d逐渐下降,且人口密度梯度β亦随时间的推移而减缓,即市区人口分布逐渐趋向合理。     

EVALUATING THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF SCHOOL QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS: A RESIDENTIAL SORTING APPROACH

Las Vegas experienced improvements in math and reading performance between 2006 and 2011. This study evaluates the benefits of these nonmarginal improvements to Las Vegas area homeowners, using a residential sorting model. We estimate households’ preferences for multiple characteristics including the proportion of proficient students in their assigned elementary school. The estimation accounts for the endogeneity of school quality using school boundary fixed effects. The welfare estimates suggest that the school quality improvements provided substantial benefits to the area's households. We find that benefit measures derived from a hedonic price model are substantially larger than our sorting model benefit measures.     

Migration and left-behind parents and children of migrants in Cambodia: a look at household composition and the economic situation

ABSTRACT

This paper examines composition of households formed after the outmigration of a household member in rural Cambodian and correlates household types with indicators of economic condition. The paper focuses on households containing left-behind parents and the children of migrants. Excess mortality in the 1970s due to war suggests the association between migration and economic condition may be gendered. This could be exacerbated when migration leads to a skip-generation household containing a left-behind parent and a child of migrant without an own parent of the child present. Data come from the Cambodian Rural-Urban Migration Project (CRUMP), a project designed to study migration in rural Cambodia. Most households formed after a migration contain a left-behind parent of migrant. While about 22 per cent of these households contain a left-behind child of migrant, the per cent is over 60 per cent when the migrant is themselves a parent. The economic situation tends to be worst for left behind solo mothers (mothers of migrants who do not live with a spouse) and best for left-behind coupled parents of migrants. There is evidence that the combination of left-behind solo mothers living with children of migrants in a skip-generation situation is the most disadvantaged.     

ON LONELINESS

Contemporary Western societies are characterized by ‘until further notice’ relationships (and precarious or very loose social bonds), historically high levels of mobility of both capital and labour and growing numbers of single person households. As artefacts of freedom and choice these social arrangements do not inevitably give cause for concern but they may come at a price and that might involve more frequent and more sustained experiences of loneliness. This article argues that we know very little about loneliness even though some observers have described it as a new plague. The article sets out to describe the dimensions of a sociology of contemporary loneliness in terms of its social distribution, its extent and impact as well as its nature as an emotional and ontological experience. While we may be heading towards a civilization which, as Michel Houellebecq darkly hints in the recent novel The Possibility of an Island (2006), may have little further need for ‘the social’, for the time being it seems as though this problem (that would ‘rather not’ speak its name) is the cause of considerable suffering and pain.     

Buying and Borrowing in Adelaide: Mortgage Commitments of Home Buyers, 1986

In April 1986 housing finance allocation procedures were deregulated. The impact of this decision on levels of finance borrowed by households was assessed for 2562 buyers of houses and home units in the Adelaide Statistical Division during May and June 1986. Sales price and mortgage data suggest two tendencies influencing the relationship between price and mortgage. Firstly, low price purchasers have small deposits and borrow heavily to effect their purchase. Secondly, high price buyers, with large deposits, are nevertheless taking out large loans to finance housing. Levels of gearing show market socio-economic bias, low cost buyers being more likely to be overcommitted.     

THE EFFECT OF LAND‐USE CONTROLS ON THE SPATIAL SIZE OF U.S. URBANIZED AREAS*

ABSTRACT On a sample of U.S. urbanized areas in 2000, we test theoretical hypotheses of the effect of land‐use controls on the spatial size of urban areas. We find that minimum lot‐size zoning and maximum FAR restrictions expand the urban area, while maximum lot‐size zoning, urban growth boundaries, minimum square footage limits, maximum building permit restrictions, minimum person per room controls, and impact fees contract the urban area. All of these findings are consistent with theoretical predictions although the effect of urban growth boundaries and minimum square footage limits are not statistically significant.     

INVESTMENT RISK AND THE TRANSITION INTO HOMEOWNERSHIP*

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the extent to which house–price uncertainty affects the transition of renter households into homeownership. Using a 14‐year household panel from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics during the years 1984–1997 and measures of the time‐varying risk and return to owner‐occupied housing, we estimate a Cox proportional hazard model of the effect of house–price volatility on the transition into homeownership. Results indicate that house–price uncertainty has a negative and dramatic impact on transitions into homeownership. In addition, we find that the low‐wealth renters are particularly sensitive to house–price risk.