The Character of Demographic Processes and their Impact on City Growth in Moscow Oblast

The character of demographic processes (population growth, natural increase, migration, age-sex structure) is analyzed for cities of Moscow Oblast both by size classes and by their location in three concentric rings around Moscow. The demographic indicators tend to be particularly negative in cities of the outer zone of Moscow Oblast, mainly one-industry textile towns, in which the high female component of the labor force tends to create an unbalanced demographic situation. Positive demographic processes are most evident in middle-size cities (20,000 to 100,000) in the green belt and suburban zone around Moscow that arose or developed mainly during the Soviet period. They are largely associated with heavy industry and scientific research and development. The analysis suggests the need for greater development of outer-zone towns, which have been lagging in growth, and a need for avoiding the existence of one-industry towns, even as part of a cluster of places.     

Migration and Occupational Choice among Young Labor Force Entrants: A Human Capital Model

Interregional variations in the conditions for entering the labor force are investigated by analyzing interdependencies between migration behavior and occupational choice for young labor force entrants. The human capital framework indicates that occupational choice depends on the costs and returns associated with entering various occupations, and that interregional variation in these costs and returns is a major reason for migration. Occupational choice and migration behavior will be interdependent if the costs and returns for particular occupations vary over local labor markets, relative to other occupations, and patterns of interdependence between the two decisions are analyzed, using a model of the joint choice of occupation and location. An empirical analysis of occupational choices and migration behavior for young people who entered the U.S. labor force in the 1975–80 period indicates that the odds for entering professional or managerial occupations varied with origin and migration behavior in systematic ways.     

Migration,common property,and communal labor: cultural politics and agency in a Mexican village

This article examines the politics of migration in an indigenous Oaxacan village (Mexico), and finds that the village acts, with measured success, to shape the timing and rhythm of migration. Villagers regard migration as necessary yet problematic. Migration provides income for village families yet undercuts traditions of community service and disrupts the integrity of local development networks that link the community to NGOs, state bureaucracies, and product markets. As a consequence, villagers engage in a cultural politics of negotiation and contestation that moulds both the meanings of migration, and the village social practices that regulate migration. Regulation operates via the setting of norms for village communal labor participation: those who do not undertake assigned tasks (cargos and tequios) face loss of usufruct of communal lands. This finding of strong sending community agency is contrasted with recent migration studies that emphasize the agency of migrant networks and transnational spaces. The paper presents a case study of migration that examines the exercise of community agency via collective labor participation, and the study concludes by calling for a greater analytical focus on the cultural politics of sending communities.     

THE LOCATION OF METAL-INTENSIVE AND LABOR-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN THE EASTERN REGIONS

The author argues against the widespread view (stated in several articles in Soviet Geography) that labor-intensive industries should be kept out of Siberia because of the shortage of labor resources in that region. Taking the specific example of labor-intensive machinery industry such as instrument-making, as opposed to steel-intensive industry, he points out that labor-intensive plants, by virtue of their smaller size, usually have smaller labor requirements than large heavy-machinery manufacturing plants. Moreover, he argues, location must not be based on total population or total labor resources of a region, but on the availability of so-called free (nonemployed) labor resources, which consist largely of women and of young people just entering upon a career. This category of labor resources happens to be greater in the eastern regions than in the western regions of the Soviet Union. In fact, one reason for the net out-migration from Siberia, according to the author, is that second and third members of households find it difficult to obtain jobs in a regional economy that is largely oriented toward male employment (in extractive industry, timber felling, etc.). The introduction of labor-intensive industries into existing Siberian industrial complexes would thus help provide employment to other household members and eliminate one reason for out-migration.     

Regional Labor Market Dynamics, Housing, and Migration

Abstract.  This study explores the impact of plant‐level labor market dynamics and housing markets on gross migration flows. The internal and the external reorganizations of regional labor markets are shown to be related. An increase in internal turnover of jobs and workers in regional labor markets is found to increase net‐migration. This effect arises mainly from a reduction in out‐migration. Housing markets constitute constraints for migration. In particular, an increase in regional housing prices and a large share of owner‐occupancy housing discourages net‐migration to a region by reducing in‐migration. In contrast, the out‐migration rate remains largely unaffected by housing markets.     

Mode‐Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization*

Abstract. Business cycles in different regions of the United States tend to synchronize. This study investigates the reasons behind this synchronization of business cycles and the consequent formation of a national business cycle. Trade between regions may not be strong enough for one region to “drive” business cycle fluctuations in another region. This study suggests that regional business cycles synchronize due to a nonlinear “mode‐locking” process in which weakly coupled oscillating systems (regions) tend to synchronize. There is no definitive test for mode‐lock. However, simulations, correlations, Granger causality tests, tests for nonlinearities, vector autoregressions, and spectral analysis reveal modest econometric support for the regional mode‐locking hypothesis of business cycle synchronization.     

EMPLOYMENT CYCLES AND PROCESS INNOVATION IN REGIONAL STRUCTURAL CHANGE*

Regional employment cycles, the demand for skilled and unskilled labor, and process innovations are analyzed in the context of an industry product cycle. Employment fluctuations caused by endogenous technological change lead to spatial decentralization of production facilities through capital relocation and spatial divisions of labor. A capital investment profile suggested by the product cycle scenario is related to employment cycles. A price system for output is outlined in terms of wages and profits over the product cycle.     

Nobody asked the mother: women and maternity on Simbo,western Solomon Islands

This article's focus is on the role of mothers in Simbo, one of the New Georgia islands in the western Solomon Islands. Mother's role is examined from the standpoint of the actual experiences of motherhood and mother's perceptions and reactions to child rearing, child care, burdensome tasks, and social participation. Anthropological studies emphasize non-Western notions of maternity or romanticize the primitive. Obscured in the process is who these women really are. Western feminist accounts of Third World women emphasize the oppression and uniformity of the "natural" mother. This characterization of Simbo women is presented as a single non-Western view and is unrelated to a global vision. Simbo women as mothers feel oppressed and are envious of Western notions of parenting, yet at the same time feel that Western child rearing deprives the child. Maternity is a state of ambivalence, where women feel both love for and oppression by children, spouses, and other women. The tasks and responsibilities of childbearing are more difficult because of increased fertility and changes in social practices. Women without children are viewed with sympathy and mild condescension. Changes in social practices are in part due to the presence of missionaries after 1903 and the over 200 year involvement of the islands in world trading. The most significant impact on women post-Christianity is the change from the emphasis on female-child relationships to male-female relationships. Pre-Christianity, marriage ceremonies stressed equality of spouses and their kin groups. New customs emphasize brideprice and the husband's authority over women's bodies. The change in power affects fertility levels, child care, women's work, and contraception. Men today do less labor relative to women and, when husbands are absent due to temporary labor migration, women may not have any help. The nuclear family is responsible for all labor. Women specifically tend the gardens and house, care for children, and care for ill members of the family. The concept of maternity changes with the stage in the life cycle. The first child is the easiest because grandmothers help with infant care. Children are both indulged and then resented when the demands interfere with activities or the children are too difficult.     

我国大学生就业城市选择意愿及其影响因素分析

引导大学生合理的就业流动是促进各类城市协调发展的有效途径。本文以不同类型的就业城市为研究对象,通过全国7个城市的1600余份调查问卷,利用多项Logit模型分析了我国大学生就业城市的选择意愿及影响因素。研究表明,大学生倾向以自身生源地为界限对劳动市场的地域进行二元划分,职业发展机遇和家庭因素在就业地的选择中最为重要,地区特质和自然生态环境的影响最弱,生源地和个人观念都与就业地的选择显著相关。在此基础上提出引导大学生就业流动的政策建议。     

Book Review

In the absence of Soviet statistics on commuting it is estimated that, as of the late 1960's, at least 10 million people commuted to work or study in the Soviet Union, or about 12 percent of the number of public-sector workers and students. Sample surveys have shown that commuting is found not only in the suburban zones of large cities, but also around small towns, and that it involves as many as 3 million residents of rural areas who travel to work in urban places. The maximum commuting radius in the Soviet Union appears to be about 50 km, with the number of commuters dropping off sharply beyond that limit. In terms of social composition, commuters tend to be mainly young men of relatively low skills. An assessment of commuting, from the Soviet point of view, lists both positive features, such as the fuller use of labor resources around a large urban center, and negative features, such as the unproductive loss of time involved in commuting over long distances.     

Migration and Changing Employment Status: A Hazard Function Analysis

The effects of different employment-status transitions on migration choices are considered from a search-theoretic perspective. A discrete-time hazard function for migration decisions is estimated on data for young males of rural origin in France. Employment-status transitions are handled as endogenous time-varying covariates. The model is estimated by distance of move. The results show that the long-distance migration hazard is significantly related to labor market variables, and, ceteris paribus, is highest among job-gainers compared to the other transition groups. The probability of contracted (long-distance) migration is found to be higher than that of speculative migration for unemployed workers, especially those who are low-educated. Evidence consistent with cumulative inertia is found for long-distance moves. Short-distance migration hazards are found to be unrelated to labor market variables (including employment-status transitions) and to display no systematic pattern of duration dependence.     

现代史学方法论视角下的人口循环理论

马尔萨斯理论在史学上被广泛应用。马尔萨斯认为人口的增长导致饥饿和社会危机,随之而来的是人口数量的减少、消费增加,随后人口数量又开始增加。人口数量的稳定波动就是人口循环周期。20世纪30年代俄国经济学家雅什诺夫在史学研究中第一次揭示了马尔萨斯人口循环理论。随后W.阿贝尔和M.波斯坦在欧洲史研究方面运用了该理论。20世纪下半叶人口循环理论得到了深入的研究,尤其受到法国年鉴派史学家布罗代尔等人的重视。随后,J.戈尔斯通的人口结构理论为人口循环理论的发展注入了新的活力。近几年以J.卡姆罗斯、P.图尔钦为代表的学者广泛采用数学模拟方法研究人口循环理论,运用这一方法可将人口循环周期分为增长阶段、紧缩阶段和生态危机阶段。此外,运用人口循环理论取得的研究成果有助于对社会和经济发展做出预测。     

Estate youth and complicated migration in Malaysia's oil palm plantations: the emotions of leaving and connecting back

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the emotional relationship young Tamil Indians have with oil palm plantations they are leaving behind or have left behind. Working in a small town in Malaysia, as well as in a large estate, we show how communal and individual aspirations of migration shape young people's mobility. While young people recognize the poverty and marginalization of plantation life, they continue to be emotionally and affectually connected to plantations through socio-cultural and spiritual practices. Post-migration we show how youth maintain estate connections, and argue that the pull back towards plantations is contrary to state-sponsored ideologies of modernization. Not all young people feel the same pull; many try to distance themselves from their estate roots through consumption and other social practices. Responding to calls for researchers emotions to be present in youth research, the paper also briefly reflects how adult emotions shape our understanding of young people's emotions of migration.     

Mass Migration and the Polynesian Settlement of New Zealand

This paper reintroduces the concept of mass migration into debates concerning the timing and nature of New Zealand’s settlement by Polynesians. Upward revisions of New Zealand’s chronology show that the appearance of humans on the landscape occurred extremely rapidly, and that within decades settlements had been established across the full range of climatic zones. We show that the rapid appearance of a strong archaeological signature in the early 14th century AD is the result of a mass migration event, not the consequence of gradual demographic growth out of a currently unidentified earlier phase of settlement. Mass migration is not only consistent with the archaeological record but is supported by recent findings in molecular biology and genetics. It also opens the door to a new phase of engagement between archaeological method and indigenous Maori and Polynesian oral history and tradition.     

劳务经济模式与地域发展对策研究——以河南省为例

论文论述了发达国家农村劳动力转移的三种模式,即英国模式、美国模式和日本模式,并以劳务经济大省河南省为例,总结出河南劳务经济发展的六种模式,即候鸟式劳务型,团体转移型,打工创业型,求学就业型,海外就业型,工业吸引型。根据国内外经验与未来发展趋势,提出了促进我国劳务经济健康发展的对策。     

Stigmatized Spaces: Gender and Mobility under crisis in South Sulawesi,Indonesia

The economic downturn in Indonesia (1997‐99) has changed the context of gendered spatial mobility in South Sulawesi. For low-income migrants in the region, the monetary crisis has not only reorganized the labor market, but it has also brought about an intensification of the stigma placed on young women's independent residence in an export processing zone. Household surveys and in-depth interviews with migrants and members of their origin and destination site neighborhoods, both before and during the economic retrenchment, illustrate that ideas about women's sexual morality are a key part of the context within which migration decisions are gendered. The article situates survey and interview findings within an overview of Indonesia's recent development history, economic crisis, and official state gender ideology. The article argues that migrants and their communities have identified the ‘prostitute’ as a female-gendered metaphor for the crisis, and finds that post-1997 narratives of women's mobility increasingly revolve around normative judgements regarding young women's independent mobility and sexual behavior.     

STEADY-STATE LABOR TURNOVER AS OPTIMAL HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR*

ABSTRACT. Models of the firm with costly labor turnover and models of migration with location-specific consumption amenities are two standard explanations of the co-existence of persistent wage differentials with extensive labor mobility. Labor turnover models postulate a worker quit function where the quit rate is inversely related to the regional wage differential in the steady state. We use amenity-consumption models of migration to show conditions under which this postulate is consistent with household utility maximization. Our model extends standard amenity-consumption analysis by making the value of amenities contingent on the “state” of the household. These household states are defined in terms of demographic, education, and health characteristics and are assumed to follow a Markov process.     

The politics of Australian yuppies

Although many popular claims are made about the social distinctiveness and political importance of yuppies (young, urban or upwardly‐mobile professionals), there is little firm evidence to support such claims. This paper uses national survey data to identify individuals who might be classified as yuppies, and examines their demographic and social attributes and political orientations. The results show that there are no substantial differences between yuppies on the one hand, and non‐yuppies (young, rural persons or young urban non‐professionals) and people aged 40 and over on the other. Moreover, yuppies tend to be liberal rather than conservative on most issues, economic ones included. These results suggest that claims about the distinctiveness and political importance of yuppies are generally exaggerated.