Disaggregate Migration Behavior and the Volume of Interregional Migration

Nested multinomial logit models are used to investigate migration behavior during the 1971–74 period for a large sample of the population of Ecuador. The nested form of the model makes it possible to test hypotheses about the importance of destination characteristics in conditioning the odds for out-migration. Our empirical results indicate that the odds for migration from each origin are conditioned by the expected utilities of the available set of destinations, as well as characteristics of the origins and the personal characteristics of potential migrants. The association between destination characteristics and the frequency of out-migration allows the total volumes of migration to be adjusted to interregional differences in place-specific utilities.     

Regional Out-Migration Rates and Migration Histories: A Longitudinal Analysis

A longitudinal approach to migration behavior makes it possible to identify a sufficient condition for positive associations between rates of in-migration and rates of out-migration in the same regions. The longitudinal approach centers on the intervals of time that individuals spend in a region, and these intervals can be analyzed in terms of probability distributions or the equivalent hazard functions or survivor functions. Differences in the distributions of these intervals between subpopulations whose residence in a region begins with in-migration and subpopulations whose residence begins with other events are sufficient for temporal variations in rates of in-migration to produce variations in out-migration rates in subsequent periods of time. Tests for such differences are performed using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

Analysis of Interregional Labor Migration in Spain Using Gross Flows

In this paper we study the economic determinants of Spanish interregional labor force flows from an aggregate perspective. The study is based on a matching model of the labor market applied to migration, and uses gross rather than net flows as other studies do. Among the main results, we find that unemployment increases out-migration because unemployed people search more actively, but when the unemployment rate is above a certain level this effect is reduced. We also find that the rate of change of relative wages is a significant determinant of migration in Spain.     

Employment Opportunities,Wages and International Migration in Sweden 1970–1989

In this study I focus on the impact of aggregate labor turnover and regional labor market conditions on gross in- and out-migration within the framework of a neoclassical flexible-wage (equilibrium) model and a fixed-wage (labor-market disequilibrium) model. Using annual panel data on internal gross migration flows in Sweden from 1970 to 1989, I find that regional differences in employment opportunities have the expected effects on migration. The empirical relationship between real wages and gross migration flows is found to be less congruent with theory implications, indicating that compensated regional income prospects are equalized primarily via the interaction between employment opportunities and gross migration flows. Cyclical changes in hirings are shown to have a robust and strongly significant positive scale effect on migration.     

Migration and the metropolis: recent research on the causes of migration to southeast England

"The paper focuses on one main issue: the relative importance of housing and labour market forces in explaining the volume and nature of migration to the southeast region [of England]." The author reviews recent literature in an attempt to determine "why people migrated to [and from] the southeast...[and] what the consequences of these in-migration and out-migration streams were for their respective origin and destination regions."     

The Risks and Uncertainties of Migration: an Exploration of Recent Trends amongst the Wosera Abelam of Papua New Guinea

This paper reports on ongoing research on migration and circulation between the Wosera sub-district, East Sepik Province, Papua New Guinea, and the island province of West New Britain. We examine the pressures contributing to increased family migration and longer-term, possibly permanent, migration from the Wosera. While rising resource/population pressure and stricter forms of land tenure arrangements are altering patterns of out-migration, the situation for long-term and temporary migrants in West New Britain is becoming less certain as land shortages begin to limit opportunities for further settlement and indigenous landowners become less tolerant of migrants from other provinces. We discuss these influences on migration patterns within the context of emerging social stratification of Wosera society, and consider the implications for both migrants and non-migrants.     

Poor people on the move: county-to-county migration and the spatial concentration of poverty

Poverty rates in high-poverty and low-poverty rural counties, and, thus, the spatial concentration of poverty, are affected by poverty-specific differences in in-migration and out-migration patterns. These patterns are investigated using 1985–90 county-to-county migration data from the decennial census. Effects on poverty rates of four migration flows (in- and out-migration of poor, in- and out-migration of nonpoor) are quantified, and their impacts on spatial concentration of poverty are assessed. The effect of selected county characteristics on the migration of the poor and nonpoor in nonmetro counties are estimated. The poor are as mobile as the nonpoor, and the migration patterns of both poor and nonpoor generally maintain and reinforce the pre-existing spatial concentration of poverty.     

人口流动对边境地区人口安全的影响及机制分析

本文关注我国边境人口变动和人口流动状况,着重分析了人口流动对边境人口安全的影响机制,并探讨了边境人口流动的影响因素。研究发现,①边境县域人口总体规模稳中略降,人口增速和增量持续减少;②人口净流出已逐步成为边境人口变动主要因素;③边境人口变动与流动影响程度有明显区域差异。外流风险型地区已出现明显的人口负增长和外流,人口安全缺乏数量和质量保障;相对稳定型地区人口保持低速增长,但其人口净流出水平正不断提高,有向外流风险型转变的趋势;相对封闭增长型地区人口增长较快,但流动性较弱。各类边境地区人口流出流入呈现不同特征,并受到经济、教育、城镇化、民族、政策等不同因素影响。     

UNION REPUBLIC MIGRATION TRENDS IN THE USSR DURING THE 1980s

This article examines union republic migration trends in the USSR between 1979 and 1987 and prospects for indigenous out-migration from rural areas in Central Asia. The study is based on migration data derived by the residual technique and migration data from the 1985 microcensus. Results indicate that a south-to-north and probably Russian-dominated migration trend emerged in the 1980s, one which marks an almost complete reversal from earlier periods, especially 1959-70. Although Central Asia continues to have low levels of indigenous out-migration, labor surpluses and relatively waning capital investment in Central Asia may change this situation.     

ECONOMIC REGION NET MIGRATION PATTERNS IN THE USSR: 1979-89

This article investigates economic region net migration patterns in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period. Net in-migration and net migration rate increases (compared to 1970-79) occurred in both the western and eastern portions of the Northern USSR region, while net out-migration and rate declines occurred throughout the Southern USSR. Net in-migration again occurred to Siberia, especially Tyumen' Oblast, and there was a reduced rate of net out-migration from the Nonchernozem Zone and Central Chernozem Region of European RSFSR.     

INTERNAL VERSUS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND THE ROLE OF MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION

This study disentangles the concept of relative deprivation by distinguishing feelings of individual and collective relative deprivation as sources of individual aspirations. Both concepts are then operationalised and empirically tested with regard to their relative importance in migration decision-making. Based on data from the National Sample Survey in 2008, two factors turn out to be relevant in understanding the Indian migration pattern. First, individual and collective relative deprivations are both strong predictors for out-migration, but only for short-distance, intra-state movements. The likelihood of out-migration towards international destinations is significantly higher for households with lower levels of individual and collective relative deprivation. Second, leaving aside the effects of relative deprivation, absolute deprivation plays a rather ambivalent role: while economically better-off households have a higher propensity for sending (primarily male) migrants to distant inter-state and international destinations, shorter distance out-migration is mainly dominated by female migrants stemming from poorer households.     

Rural out-migration and economic standing in a prairie setting

"This study attempts to trace the determinants of rural out-migration for a typical portion of the Canadian Prairies, namely agricultural Manitoba. In concentrating on the 'push' factors responsible for gross out-migration over the period 1966-71, the study considers aspects of several dimensions: spatial, economic, social, ethnic and demographic. However, in order to explore the ramifications of interaction between migration and these multifaceted factors, a model is construed which dwells not only on the forces responsible for out-migration, per se, but also on those capable of regulating rural economic structure and agricultural welfare."     

RURAL OUT-MIGRATION IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA

Rural out-migration from southern Manitoba over the period 1971–76 is subjected to a path-analytic model which claims that the exodus is due to unsatisfactory economic and social conditions. In particular, the model is structured so that migration and community satisfaction both depend upon the economic standing of a community. Results indicate that while economic conditions are key factors in rural out-migration, other variables, especially those representative of rural isolation, are also of great importance. These conclusions remain tenable even after allowing for feedback effects from the rural out-migration.
L'émigration rural de Manitoba du sud au cours de l'époque 1971–76 est éxposé dans un modèle « path-analytic >> qui réclame que cette émigration est attendu que la situation économique et sociale inadéquate. En particular, cette modèle énonce que l'émigration et la satisfaction de la société dépendent sur la condition économique de cette société. Les résultats indiquent qu'autres facteurs, comme l'éloignement rural, sont importants aussi que la situation économique. Ces résultats sont encore vrais quand même les effets de l'émigration rurale sont rendu compte de la région rurale.     

RURAL OUT-MIGRATION IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA

Rural out-migration from southern Manitoba over the period 1971–76 is subjected to a path-analytic model which claims that the exodus is due to unsatisfactory economic and social conditions. In particular, the model is structured so that migration and community satisfaction both depend upon the economic standing of a community. Results indicate that while economic conditions are key factors in rural out-migration, other variables, especially those representative of rural isolation, are also of great importance. These conclusions remain tenable even after allowing for feedback effects from the rural out-migration. L'émigration rural de Manitoba du sud au cours de l'époque 1971–76 est éxposé dans un modèle « path-analytic » qui réclame que cette émigration est attendu que la situation économique et sociale inadéquate. En particular, cette modèle énonce que l'émigration et la satisfaction de la société dépendent sur la condition économique de cette société. Les résultats indiquent qu'autres facteurs, comme l'éloignement rural, sont importants aussi que la situation économique. Ces résultats sont encore vrais quand même les effets de l'émigration rurale sont rendu compte de la région rurale.     

Time-series modeling of gross migration and dynamic equilibrium

Firstly, the high association between in- and out-migration is investigated in a time-series context and modeled according to three categories: 1) job transfer, 2) job search and marriage, and 3) return migration. Under certain coditions it is shown that aggregation of these migrations yields a bivariate time-series model having feedbacks in both directions. Secondly, the recent phenomenon of sharp changes in net migration seems to be discontinuous and, hence, catastrophic modeling [Casetti (1981) may be appropriate. However, this paper considers gross migration between cores (metropolitan areas) and peripheries (rest of the nation) for which a continuous function seems adequate. This is done by introducing a multivariate time-series model. This model is empirically supported, especially in Japan, divided into 32 regions, by t-tests and Durbin-Watson ratios, although it excludes economic variables such as employment growth and wage differentials. This may imply that the recent dispersal from core to peripheral regions could be explained primarily by feedback from return migrants. Finallym, provided future streams of gross migration follow the past trends given by simultaneous equation estimates, in-migration and out-migration would approach a stable state in most regions. Irrespective of random shocks in the future, in- and out-migration would tend to approach a stable equilibrium. According to the estimation of the stable states, the 45 core regions in the US would continue to lose population through net outflows while those in Japan would continue to gain. The present model may thus be valid only for short-term forecasts. By introducing feedback and lag structures, however, it does offer one explanation for the recent population turnaround.     

OUT-MIGRATION FROM MATLAB—A RURAL AREA OF BANGLADESH

Rural landlessness and pauperisation are ongoing processes in Bangladesh, forcing people to migrate to other areas or countries in search of a livelihood. The study estimates levels of and differentials in out-migration of adult Bangladeshis, and examines reasons for migration and place of destination, using longitudinally collected migration data in the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh's (ICDDR,B's) Matlab surveillance area during the periods 1997–1999 and 2006–2008. The out-migration rate increased over time (48 per cent men versus 28 per cent women). Men migrated primarily for economic reasons (73–76 per cent), and women, for familial reasons (77–78 per cent). The younger, educated and well-off were more likely to migrate to urban areas and foreign countries than their older, less educated and poorer peers, who were more likely to migrate to other rural areas. Effective steps are needed to check rural-urban migration, and its numerous adverse consequences.     

Urban bound migration and rural investment: the case of Mexico

The authors investigate an agriculturally based policy for improving rural incomes and for retarding the rural-urban migration flow. The production of agricultural goods is characterized by a production function in which output increases with increases in agricultural labor inputs, capital, public infrastructure, land, and technology. Differences among regions in agricultural technology will reflect regional differences in education, the institutionalized form of productive organization, and differences in access to technological information channeled through more technically advanced cities. To pick up the effect of out-migration changes in state agricultural labor supply and upon agricultural output, the state's agricultural out-migration rate is included together with the agricultural labor force. The gross migrant flow between 2 locations is hypothesized to depend upon a set of variables influencing the individual's perception of the economic rate of return to be gained by moving, a set of variables reflecting the individual's propensity to relocate, the labor displacement effects of investments, and the at risk population at 1 location available to migrate. It is also taken into account that individuals differ in their response to information about origin and destination wage differentials and that individuals may or may not perceive a new ecnomic gain from migration but may base the decision on other considerations. Results of a statistical analysis using data from the Mexican census of population for 1960 and 1970 are: 1) size of the rural labor force was negatively associated with agricultural wages, contrary to expectations; 2) small farmers have benefited from the expansion of irrigation in Mexico; and 3) higher urban wages attract migration, and higher growth rate of agricultural income retards rural-urban migration. With respect to the 1950-60 decade both agricultural income and rural out-migration impacts could have been substantial but both the impact on local urban growth and on the rate of in-migration to the primate city would have been slight.     

Impact of Characteristics of Origin and Destination Provinces on Migration: 1995–2000

During the second half of the twentieth century, internal migration in Turkey played an important role in the redistribution of the population, the concentration of capital in major cities, and the expansion and restructuring of metropolitan areas. To be able to explain the results of this restructuring process, it is important to investigate the provincial differences in migration determinants. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the characteristics of origin and destination provinces and the distances between them on internal migration at the end of the twentieth century in Turkey using global and local forms of regression analysis. Therefore, there are two main parts of the study. The first part includes analyzing the in-migration globally. Second, the spatial distribution of the out-migration with respect to determinants among all the provinces of Turkey is investigated. According to the results, in-migrants are correlated with the characteristics of provinces such as industrial employment, service sector employment and number of university students. Out-migration is investigated for each province according to the aforementioned characteristics of the destination provinces and the distances between them. The results of the study reveal that there are locally varying relationships in out-migration in Turkey.     

The impact of unemployment insurance benefits on the probability of migration of the unemployed

"By ignoring individual unemployment compensation benefits and conditions of job termination, past migration research has concluded that personal unemployment doubles the likelihood of interstate labor-force migration. Findings from the present study indicate that aggregating the unemployed, without adjusting for these two factors, overstates the probability of migration for the involuntarily unemployed benefit recipient and understates the likelihood of migration for the voluntarily unemployed benefit recipient. The results suggest that federal discretionary unemployment-compensation programs, which are implemented during recessionary periods, likely serve to retard out-migration of those who are involuntarily unemployed." Data are from a 1982 sample of unemployed U.S. workers.     

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic change in nonmetropolitan areas

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic growth in nonmetropolitan regions of the United States is estimated using data for 1960-1970. The dependent variables considered include in-migration, out-migration, growth in employment, and growth in income. The findings indicate that there is a definite link between the patterns of economic and demographic change in nonmetropolitan areas but that it differs in important respects from that which has been observed in metropolitan areas.