人口流动对边境地区人口安全的影响及机制分析

本文关注我国边境人口变动和人口流动状况,着重分析了人口流动对边境人口安全的影响机制,并探讨了边境人口流动的影响因素。研究发现,①边境县域人口总体规模稳中略降,人口增速和增量持续减少;②人口净流出已逐步成为边境人口变动主要因素;③边境人口变动与流动影响程度有明显区域差异。外流风险型地区已出现明显的人口负增长和外流,人口安全缺乏数量和质量保障;相对稳定型地区人口保持低速增长,但其人口净流出水平正不断提高,有向外流风险型转变的趋势;相对封闭增长型地区人口增长较快,但流动性较弱。各类边境地区人口流出流入呈现不同特征,并受到经济、教育、城镇化、民族、政策等不同因素影响。     

中国城乡协调发展空间格局与演化研究

本文从三个方面构建了城乡协调发展度指数,对中国2000-2008年31个省城乡协调发展程度的整体变化及在大区上的空间差异进行了评价和原因探讨。结果显示,中国城乡协调发展程度整体呈现上升趋势,主要原因是城乡增长率差异系数的降低,说明我国近些年的支农惠农和统筹城乡发展的政策效果显著。东部和西部地区城乡发展逐步协调,而中部和东北地区城乡发展协调度下降。东部城市和农村基本实现共同富裕,而西部是较低水平上的协调。东北地区先大幅下降后缓慢上升,中部地区的城乡协调发展度目前是最低的,变化较为复杂。     

我国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展研究

中国正处于城镇化进程加速发展时期,城市规模不断扩大,城市数目不断增加,单以非农人口比重这一标准衡量城镇化水平并不能全面反映城镇化的内涵,因此,如何理性评价当前的城镇化状态值得思考。城镇化包含人口向城镇的转型、集中、强化和分异的过程,同样也包括城镇景观的地域推进过程。在归纳总结城镇化的深层内涵的基础上,选择人口城镇化和土地城镇化为切入点,从两个不同的角度衡量我国的城镇化水平,并研究二者协调发展状态。通过时间序列演算,发现人口城镇化指数与土地城镇化指数均呈现持续上升的趋势,并且从2002年开始土地城镇化指数增长速度明显加快,并在2007年土地城镇化指数超过人口城镇化指数;空间分析的结果显示,我国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展空间格局具有水平总体偏低、阶段差距大、区域分异明显等特点。     

重庆市人口与经济发展空间耦合分布研究

本文基于2001-2012 年重庆市各个区县的人口和经济数据,计算重庆市各区县的人口地理集中度和经济地理集中度并结合耦合指数,分析人口分布与经济分布耦合特征与人口与经济空间分布类型,并运用Geoda、ArcGIS 软件对重庆各个区县人口与经济的全局和局部空间自相关分析,建立人口与经济发展耦合度模型与耦合协调度模型,分析人口与经济的空间耦合度的特征。研究结果表明：①重庆市的人口与经济整体水平有较好的发展趋势,但区域发展差异明显。②人口集中度和经济集中度总体上呈现“一圈高,两翼低”的特点。③2001-2012 年间重庆市人口与经济耦合度总体呈上升趋势,且人口与经济间的耦合作用不断增强。     

中国老年人口自评健康水平的空间分异及影响因素研究

基于2005年和2015年1%人口抽样调查资料以及2010年人口普查资料，采用ArcGIS分级制图和空间自相关分析等方法，刻画中国老年人口健康水平的时空格局及变化，并使用面板数据线性回归模型和Tobit回归模型识别影响老年人口健康水平空间分异的主要因素。结果表明：①中国老年人口健康水平存在明显的空间分异，老年人口健康水平高的地市主要分布在东南部省份、华北平原和新疆北部，老年人口健康水平低的地市主要集中在青藏高原及其周边地区；②十年间，老年人口健康水平的空间分异水平有所降低，老年人口健康水平中等的地市数量大幅增加；③老年人口健康水平呈现显著的空间正相关性，随着空间分异的缩小，空间集聚程度上升；老年人口健康水平的高-高类型区主要集中在东南部地区，低-低类型区主要分布在青藏高原及周边区域；④社会经济发展水平、人口结构、饮食习惯和自然地理因素是影响老年人口健康水平空间分异的重要因素，东部、中部和西部地区老年人口健康水平的影响因素存在显著的差异。     

旅游安全网络关注度区域差异研究——基于中国31个省市区旅游安全的百度指数

基于2009-2012年全国31个省、自治区、直辖市的旅游安全网络关注度的百度指数,采用泰尔指数测算方法,分析全国旅游安全网络关注度的区域差异特征,研究发现:1旅游安全网络关注度总体呈现出平稳增长态势,但相比我国互联网上网人数还较小;2区域间、区域内和以省际为单元的旅游安全网络关注度差异显著;3区域间旅游安全网络关注度差异是造成以省际为单元的旅游安全网络关注度差异的主要原因,区域内旅游安全网络关注度对以省际为单元的旅游安全网络关注度的贡献率很小;4西部地区的旅游安全网络关注度省际规模位序低于中部、东部地区,东部地区旅游安全网络关注度指数一直靠前;5整体上,2011-2012年全国和三大区域的旅游安全治理信息的网络关注度较高,所占比重最大;中部地区对旅游安全治理信息的网络关注度明显高于东部和西部地区;2011年和2012年东、中、西部三大区域假日旅游安全信息网络关注度所占比例较接近。     

1995-2010年中国省际人口迁移态势与空间格局演变——基于社会网络分析的视角

采用第五次人口普查、2005年人口抽样调查和第六次人口普查数据,基于社会网络分析的视角,研究了省级尺度下中国人口迁移态势与空间格局演变特征。结果显示:(1)1995-2010年间,中国人口迁移规模迅速增大,省际间人口迁移规模差异明显;上海、浙江人口迁入率显著上升,河南、安徽人口迁出率显著上升。(2)北京、上海、安徽、四川等13省是我国人口迁移网络的核心节点,人口迁移网络表现出中心性、收敛性和地区非均衡性特点。(3)京津地区、长三角地区、广东是我国主要人口辐合流场,安徽、四川、河南、湖南等中部省份是我国主要人口辐散流场。研究表明,不同地区的人口迁移有显著的空间异质性,各地应根据自身人口迁移趋势及在全国人口迁移网络中角色,科学制定区域人口政策与经济社会发展规划。     

中国博物馆空间分布特征的多尺度分析

运用数理统计和GIS空间分析方法,对2014年中国博物馆的空间特征进行多尺度分析和探究,结果表明：从全国尺度看,中国博物馆的空间分布呈现出单中心向外环状扩散和轴向扩展的“扇”型结构特征,并沿“胡焕庸线”两侧非均衡分布表现出“东南密西北疏”的分布格局;从地带尺度看,三大地区博物馆分布呈现出东部多于中部、中部多于西部的“梯度化”特征;从省域尺度看,不同类型博物馆的省域分布表现出显著的地域性和差异性特征,民办博物馆集中分布在东部沿海地区、黄河中游地区和长江中游地区;从市域尺度看,博物馆集中分布在II型大城市和中等城市,中国市域博物馆密度分布存在正的空间相关性。     

COVID-19疫情对中国节日人口城际出行影响研究

论文基于百度迁徙数据,对比 2020 年与2019年中国清明节、劳动节、国庆节3个重要节日人口城际流动差异,探讨 COVID-19 疫情对中国节日人口城际出行影响。研究指出：①2020年清明节、五一劳动节百度迁徙日均人口城际流动强度分别较2019年同期下降50.1%和45.2%,同时影响程度存在显著的空间差异;②2020年劳动节、国庆节百度迁徙日均人口城际流动强度指数分别较同年前一个节日增加了17.7%和36.7%,人口出行网络的路径权重、紧密性在持续增加。其中劳动节分析表明,疫情影响下人们倾向于短途出行,同时目的地选择更加多元化;③2020年4月份以哈尔滨市为主的局部疫情复发导致黑龙江省人口城际流入、流出水平分别下降 0.360 个单位和0.365个单位,同时对周边地区人口出行存在负向扩散影响。     

基于腾讯迁徙数据的中国“春运”城市间人口流动空间格局

“腾讯迁徙”大数据基于位置服务，实时、动态、完整、系统地描述了用户日常出行活动的轨迹。通过采集“腾讯迁徙”数据平台中2018年春运期间中国346个地级及以上城市之间的逐日人口流动数据，分“节前、节中、节后”3个时间段，利用复杂网络分析方法，从人口流动的集散层级、集散体系分层集聚特征、人口流动空间格局、网络空间特征等角度分析各时间段城市间的人口流动特征与空间格局。结果表明，腾讯迁徙大数据直观地揭示了春运期间中国城市间人口流动空间格局，3个时段人口的净流入均呈现十字形骨架支撑的菱形分布，人流集散中心主要集中在京津冀、长三角、珠三角和成渝4大城市群，与城市等级有较强的一致性。人口流动集散体系呈明显的分层集聚，城市行政级别的高低与人口流动影响力存在一定的正相关关系，大部分城市人口流动处于“相对平衡”状态。人口流动网络呈现东密西疏的分布特征和东部并联、西部串联的网络关联特征。人口流动网络局部具有较明显的“社区”结构特征，聚为3个大区级、5个跨区域级和1个地区级社区。     

Recent Change in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population and Housing Geographies

The intercensal period (2006–2011) was a time of significant policy and population change in Indigenous affairs. The aim of this paper is to document the changing distribution of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and housing geographies over that period. We use the Indigenous Region structure developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to show that Indigenous Australians grew at a rate that significantly outstrips the non‐Indigenous population with an increasing concentration of the Indigenous population on the urban eastern seaboard and particularly among older people. We present results that show that for certain measures, the housing situation of the Indigenous population in 2011 had improved relative to the Indigenous population in 2006. A smaller proportion of Indigenous households were estimated to live in an overcrowded dwelling compared with Indigenous households in 2006. There were also significant increases in the per cent of Indigenous households that owned or were purchasing their own home. Other results might be seen as less positive with community housing (a tenure type identified as having benefits in both qualitative and quantitative analysis) declining in importance. In net terms though, Indigenous households continue to experience a high degree of housing need. Compared with other households, they were 3.7 times as likely to live in an overcrowded dwelling.     

1391-2006年龙感湖-太白湖流域的人口时间序列及其湖泊沉积响应

龙感湖、太白湖是经济发达的长江中下游地区重要的浅水湖泊。本研究首先利用历史学的方法复原了黄梅、广济（武穴）和宿松三县1391-2006年的人口时间序列,这是首次将中国历史人口序列的重建深入到县一级。以此为基础,重建了1391-2006年龙感湖-太白湖流域的历史人口序列。在复原方法上,重点吸收了何炳棣等学者关于史载人口数...     

Connecting Municipal and Regional Level Planning: Analysis and Visualization of Sustainability Indicators in Bergslagen,Sweden

Sustainable development as a process towards sustainability requires collaboration among societal actors and stakeholders at multiple levels. A key issue is to provide them with that they have comprehensive and transparent knowledge base representing the state and trends of different dimensions of sustainability. This study addresses the need to analyse and present data of sustainability as a foundation for the sustainable development process within municipalities, and among them. As a case study, we focus on 18 municipalities in the crisis-struck Bergslagen region in Sweden and compare them with 101 surrounding municipalities. Data from 2001 and 2006 on 15 indicators representing ecological, economic and social sustainability criteria were transformed to a common scale through normalization around the median, and summarized. Bergslagen region municipalities performed poorer than the surrounding ones for all dimensions in 2006. The change from 2001 to 2006 was positive for economic and social criteria, while the ecological dimension developed negatively in all municipalities. We stress the need for municipalities to collaborate with each other and other actors both at municipal and regional levels, and to use sustainability indicators as a base for informed planning processes. We propose visualization of indicators using maps to support decision-making and social learning.     

The Taliban at war: inside the Helmand insurgency, 2004–2012

In seeking to explain why and how the war in Afghanistan has dragged on, most analysis has focused on the western and Afghan government effort. In this article, we examine how the war looks from the perspective of the insurgency. Using Helmand province as a case‐study, we draw on a large number of original interviews with Taliban field commanders and fighters to produce a uniquely detailed picture of the Taliban at war. In the first section, we explore how the Taliban returned to Helmand from 2004 to 2006, and show how the British made the situation far worse when they deployed forces to Helmand in 2006. In the second part of the article we examine the evolution of the Taliban insurgency in Helmand since 2006. We show how the Taliban has developed an increasingly centralized organizational structure, a more militarized shadow government and greater professionalism of field units. The overall picture that emerges is of a resilient insurgency that has adapted under immense military pressure. The Taliban have suffered very heavy attrition in Helmand, but they are far from defeated.     

当前俄罗斯人口地理变动的新特点

俄罗斯是一个地广人稀的国家。在20世纪90年代世界性人口增长的大背景下,人口持续减少,已成为影响国家发展和民族生存的重大问题,特别是其人口的发展显示出有悖于世界人口增长普遍规律的一些特征,非常值得探讨和研究。本文在对俄罗斯人口的增长、结构、分布和城市化发展特点等四个方面进行全面分析的基础上,探讨了俄罗斯人口危机产生的经济、社会和文化原因。指出解决俄罗斯人口问题的当务之急是加快发展经济,全面提高人口的生存环境质量。     

The Relevance of the 'Irrelevant': Football as a Missing Dimension in the Study of British Relations with Germany

This article has been developed and updated from a paper delivered at the Grossbritannien-Zentrum, Humboldt University at Berlin, June 2000. Traditionally, sport has been marginalized, even treated as an irrelevance, in the study of International Relations (IR). The 2002 World Cup Finals raised yet again questions about the realism of continuing to write sport out of IR, and particularly to ignore its impact upon such relationships as those between Britain and Germany. Football's role in mirroring, influencing and articulating British perceptions of Germany, at least at the popular and media level, is presented as a case-study, since the football field proved another important British_German battleground throughout the twentieth century. This trend continues. Already, three high profile football internationals played during 2000–1 as well as rivalry to host the 2006 World Cup tournament have illuminated the problematic state of the British-German relationship, particularly the fact that history, most notably world war imagery, imparts en enduring extra-sporting sub-text for any England-Germany footballing encounter.     

State policy and contraceptive choices: evidence from China 1979–2012

This study examines the relationship between China’s contraception policy and married women’s (20–49 years) choice between long-acting and short-acting contraceptive methods during two periods–1980–1994 and 1995–2012. The aim is to examine the link between strictness of the contraception policy and married women’s contraceptive choice. Using data from the 1988 and the 2006 National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Surveys, we estimated the effect of contraception policy in the tightened and the loosened policy periods using a permutation test. The results show that while contraception policy promoted long-acting contraceptive methods, many married women themselves preferred short-acting contraceptive methods. During the tightened policy period, we found married women on average were 2.7 times more likely to use long-acting methods. The effect was only 1.7 times during the loosened policy period. The effect was also parity dependent. The more stringent the contraception policy was, the more likely married women used a long-acting contraceptive method. This study provides the first ever proper estimation of China’s contraception policy effects during the two periods.     

Earliest evidence of spinal tuberculosis from the Aneolithic Yayoi period in Japan

Tuberculosis has existed from early prehistoric days to modern times. The main causative agents of tuberculosis worldwide are Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) and M. bovis, along with M. africanum, M. cenettii and M. microti; these species make up the ‘M. tuberculosis complex’. This worldwide infection has been of special interest to palaeopathologists due to its characteristic bone lesions as well as its great antiquity. Historically, tuberculosis has been recognised in Japan for more than a thousand years. However, the origin and early prevalence of tuberculosis remain unknown. In the present study, we present the earliest evidence of skeletal tuberculosis found in the Aneolithic Yayoi period in Japan (ca. 300 BC to AD 300). The skeletal remains showing typical pathological changes of spinal tuberculosis were dated to between 454 BC and AD 124 by dendrochronological methods using coburied arrow-shield board and house columns made of Japanese cedar. We discuss the early prevalence of this infectious disease and its influence on the population history of the Japanese from prehistoric to Aneolithic times. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大城市外围地区流动人口结构及其城镇建设用地使用特征研究——以深圳市平湖镇为例

文章以深圳市平湖镇为例,通过实地考察和典型调查,对大城市外围地区流动人口的结构及其城镇建设用地使用特征进行研究。发现平湖的流动人口结构较为简单,大多数是来自我国西南落后地区青壮年农村剩余劳动力,并且以务工和经商为主。由于其从业特征的差异,务工和经商人员分别集中在城镇工业区和商业区内,人口分布密度较高,人均建设用地面积严重偏低。文章认为在大城市外围地区的城市规划中必须加强对流动人口的用地需求研究,以解决大规模的流动人口与相对紧缺的城镇用地之间的矛盾,并且进一步做了平湖流动人口用地需求分析,提出其规划调整建议。     

基于土地利用数据和夜间灯光数据的人口空间化模型对比分析——以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例

人口统计数据空间化是解决统计数据与自然要素数据融合分析的有效途径。随着RS和GIS技术的发展,人口空间化方法推陈出新,但不同的方法各有优缺点,方法选择和精度保证是两个重要的问题。本文以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区2010年县(市、区)单元人口统计信息为案例,分别基于土地利用数据和夜间灯光数据建立1km栅格的人口空间化模型,再分别以县(市、区)和乡(镇、街道办)为验证单元,比较两种方法模拟人口分布的优缺点。结果表明,基于土地利用数据的人口空间化模型整体优于基于夜间灯光数据的人口空间化模型,且前者更适合于模拟人口总数居中的县(市、区),后者在人口密度梯度较大的城镇边缘有更好的模拟效果,在人口较少的地区二者的模拟效果均不太理想。本研究能够为获取高精度的区域人口空间化模型提供参考。