Fertility differentials between Korean and international marriage couples in South Korea

Amid high hopes that the rise of international marriage will boost fertility rates in South Korea, this article assesses fertility differentials between Korean and international marriage couples. Espousing the theoretical position that fertility decisions need to be viewed from a couple perspective, we seek to build a new framework that goes beyond the traditional immigrant fertility literature. To test the formulated hypotheses, we compared fertility hazards among four couple types using the 2012 National Survey on Multicultural Families and the 2012 National Fertility Survey: couples consisting of a Korean wife and a Korean husband (Korean couples), couples consisting of a foreign wife and a Korean husband (foreign-wife couples), couples consisting of a Korean wife and a foreign husband (foreign-husband couples), and couples consisting of a foreign wife and a foreign husband (foreign couples). The results from Cox regression models revealed that the wives of Korean couples experienced the highest fertility hazards for the first birth, followed by the wives of foreign-wife couples. Furthermore, wives of Korean couples took the shortest time to give birth to the second child, followed by wives of foreign-husband and then foreign-wife couples. We discussed theoretical bearings of these findings and outlined a promising line of further research.     

Korean unification: a solution to the challenges of an increasingly elderly population?

South Korea experienced below replacement fertility for the first time in 1983, which also marked the point from which fertility rates continued to decline over the next 20 years to reach a low of 1.2 in 2003. In spite of recent pronatalist policies, the fertility rate has remained near this level and has not increased appreciably. The reasons for sustained low fertility in South Korea are complex and solutions remain elusive. One option that has been suggested is reunification with North Korea, which could address the eventual decline in the population and mitigate the increasing proportion of the elderly. Although the conditions surrounding the German reunification experience were vastly different than what Korea will likely undergo, it is informative to look at Germany as a guide to the demographic parameters of reunification. Three projection models for 2015–2050 are presented; even the highest fertility models show that reunification will not be the answer to population restructuring already underway in South Korea as a result of sustained low fertility.     

Non-standard work and fertility: a comparison of the US and Japan

Using General Social Survey data from Japan and the US (N?=?5101), we examine the effect of non-standard or non-regular work status on men’s fertility. We employ a cross-national comparative approach to explore how this relationship differs both within and across the two countries. Consistent with features of the Japanese context which make it challenging for non-regular workers to realise the breadwinner role we find a negative effect of non-standard work status on men’s fertility in Japan, but not the US. Specifically, Japanese men employed as non-regular workers have the lowest chances of having a child. Non-regular work status has no such effect on men’s fertility in the US. We also find that the difference in the non-standard work effect between the two countries can be accounted for by differences in the effect of marriage, which illustrates the close connection between marriage and fertility in Japan.     

VARYING EFFECT OF FERTILITY DETERMINANTS AMONG MIGRANT AND INDIGENOUS FEMALES IN THE TRANSITIONAL AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONE OF GHANA

The transitional agro‐ecological zone of Ghana, located between the richly endowed south and the impoverished north, has attracted seasonal and permanent farm migrants, mainly from northern Ghana, who now live side by side with the indigenous people. While migrants have higher numbers of Muslims, indigenous people are mainly Christians. Although the majority of the migrants live in migrant quarters with less favourable socio‐economic conditions, they are more successful farmers and therefore wealthier. The objectives are to examine the varying effect of fertility determinants among migrants and indigenous females. This paper uses data collected in 2002 among 194 females aged 15 to 49 years. Multiple regression models are used to assess fertility determinants. Results show that although migrant households were wealthier, migrant females were more traditional. They had more children living in foster care, and a lower proportion of them approved of men participating in household activities. In addition, they were less well educated, recorded higher infant mortality, gave birth earlier and used less contraception. Furthermore, while a female's migration status is statistically significant so far as non‐proximate determinants of fertility are concerned, the same variable is not significant with respect to proximate determinants. In addition, a married female migrant would on average have almost one more child compared to her indigenous counterpart, and migrant females who had experienced the loss of a child would on average have 2.5 more children compared to their indigenous counterparts. Finally, more affluent migrant females have 0.08 fewer children compared to their indigenous counterpart.     

A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.     

A Shift‐Share Method for the Analysis of Regional Fertility Change: An Application to the Decline in Childbearing in Italy, 1952–1991

This paper applies shift‐share analysis, a tool often used in economic geography and regional science, to regional fertility change in Italy, 1952–1991. During this post–World War II period, Italian fertility declined by over 33 percent, but the decline varied widely from region to region. Moreover, the demographic originations of the decline in births are not fully understood. Using birth data for nineteen Italian regions, this analysis is able to break regional change in births into three main components: a national effect, a cohort effect, and a regional differential effect, which in turn provide insight into the roots of fertility change at the regional level. These three components of change are then further disaggregated to account for the differences between changes due to population change and those related to actual changes in birth rates (the number of children produced by each woman). Strong regional differences between the north and south of Italy are demonstrated.     

RECENT AND PROSPECTIVE POPULATION GROWTH IN THE U.S.S.R.: 1979-2025

This report presents the results and assumptions of a set of projections of the population of the USSR, 1979-2025. Trends in population size and age-sex composition as well as fertility, mortality, and emigration are discussed. The detailed projection methodology is described in Kingkade (1987). The projections show that the population of the USSR will grow throughout the period to 2025. The working age population will grow very slowly for at least the next 10 years, and will not recapture the rapid growth experienced in the 1970s. The pension-age population will double in size between 1980 and 2025.     

Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registration system with estimates from other data sources. The results show that the recent changes to be real and not a result of data artifact. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the three other non-exclusive factors (population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect) that contributed jointly and simultaneously to push up the period fertility rates in the region.     

Does the sex of firstborn children influence subsequent fertility behavior? evidence from family reconstitution

According to recent studies in evolutionary anthropology, firstborn daughters influence both parity progression and sibling survival by acting as so-called helpers at the nest. Based on 534 sets of household data from family reconstitution, the current analysis fails to show that offspring sex had any direct impact on maternal fertility, sibling survivorship, birth spacing, or reproductive span. Instead, the results indicate that fertility decisions were heavily affected by proximate factors such as child mortality and gender preferences. Families who had experienced child death were swift to substitute the loss with another pregnancy--a phenomenon known as replacement strategy. Similarly, a surplus of daughters acted as a strong impulse for parity progression, not because of potential helping effects but in an attempt to conceive additional sons. This is particularly apparent when the odds of grandmultiparity are considered.     

From Fertility Intention to Fertility Behaviour

Using longitudinal data from Jiangsu Fertility Intention and Behaviour Study (JFIBS) from year 2007 and 2010, this study analyses the fertility intention and behaviour of women who are qualified to have two children from a psychosocial point of view. Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the theoretical framework from fertility intention to fertility behaviour is reconstructed. By observing the phenomenon from the micro-level, the gap between female fertility intention and behaviour and its associated factors are studied. The result shows that, given the situation of being qualified to have two children according to the government's birth control policy, when faced with the choice of whether to have a second child or not, people tend to make their decisions rationally. Attitudes towards fertility, subjective norms, and perceived behaviour control all contribute significantly to the discrepancy between fertility intention and behaviour. In addition, the formation of a concrete birth plan is a major driving force for translating fertility intention into action.     

Fertility policy in Ceausescu's Romania

This study tests a model for the impact that Ceausescu's pro-natalist policies had on the Romanian fertility rate between 1967 and 1989. Using time-series analysis the authors' findings show that the Ceausescu regime continually struggled with the Romanian population to increase the national birthrate. As a result the regime's policies, there was a significant increase in overall fertility between 1967 and 1989, when the Ceausescu regime was overthrown. Reasons are offered as to why Romania pursued such policies and was able to make them work, while other Eastern and Central European regimes proved to be less able to sustain drives to increase national fertility. This article also presents a model of what has happened to the Romanian fertility rate since 1989, showing that there has been a significant decline in fertility in the post-Communist period.     

Spatial Dimensions of the Easterlin Hypothesis: Fertility Variations in Italy

The paper re–evaluates the Easterlin hypothesis in a multiregional context by conceptually and methodologically accounting for two processes of spatial interdependence in an open subnational demo–economic system: diffusion of fertility norms and values across space, and movements between labor markets. The empirical analysis estimates pooled cross–sectional, time–series models using data for 18 Italian regions from 1952 to 1995. The results suggest that accounting for spatial interdependencies is necessary to avoid model misspecifications. Moreover, the models lead to space–time landscapes of fertility elasticities that suggest, for the majority of space–time units, an inverse Easterlin effect for the diffusion component but support of the Easterlin hypothesis due to labor movements across space.     

Offspring sex preference in frontier America

Analysis of the fertility histories of women born between 1850 and 1900, as given in the Utah Population Database (UPDB), reveals the effect of the number, as well as the sex composition, of previous children on birth-stopping and birth-spacing decisions. Specifically, agricultural and Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) households—two sub-populations that might have placed different values on male and female children for economic, social, and/or cultural reasons—showed a distinct preference for male children, as expressed by birth stopping after the birth of a male child and shorter birth intervals in higher-parity births when most previous children were female. Remarkably, women in both the early "natural fertility" and the later contraceptive eras used spacing behavior to achieve a desired sex mix. Although the LDS population had relatively high fertility rates, it had the same preferences for male children as the non-LDS population did. Farmers, who presumably had a need for family labor, were more interested in the quantity than in the sex mix of their children.     

Patterns of fertility change in Ghana: a time and space perspective

This article examines fertility change in Ghana based on a time and space perspective. The sample draws on three birth cohorts of women born in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, resident in five distinct societies selected from three settlements in Ghana. The findings of the study show that fertility change is occurring in a socioeconomic and geographically distinct manner. Significant fertility declines are traced to the 1960 birth cohorts in all the study areas. For the 1970 cohort this decline continues in the elite areas whereas the urban indigenous areas exhibit a rise in teenage fertility which is not, however, followed by higher fertility after the age of 20. In the rural area fertility rises from the 1960 to the 1970 cohort up to age 24, which is the end point of study for this cohort. The spatial variability between the five study areas has profound implications for the ongoing fertility change in Ghana and Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Fertility Decline and Increasing Gender Imbalance in India,Including a Possible South Indian Turnaround

Birth rates in India have been in a definite decline since about 1985. However, contrary to our assumption that fertility declines in this region hinge on improvements in the status of women, declining fertility seems to be going hand in hand with worsening population sex ratios. This article examines the evidence for a causal connection between fertility decline and increasing gender imbalance by looking at differences in fertility and in gender inequalities between North and South India in the past, and their increasing convergence in gender inequalities in recent years. It pays special attention to the southern state of Tamil Nadu which has been in the forefront of the country's fertility decline but is nevertheless moving towards a North Indian pattern in many aspects of women's status. The Tamil Nadu example is a particularly striking way of studying the country-wide trend because it represents a break from the past, in contrast to North India, where increasing gender differentials may be seen more as an accentuation of long-existing trends. The main problem seems to be that pressures to lower fertility are occurring independently of a change in underlying son preferences and falls in fertility are being aided by technologies which allow one to manipulate not just the sex composition of living children, but also that of children as yet unborn. Some policy implications of this last situation are discussed.     

The changing pattern of urban fertility in Eastern Australia 1966-1976

This paper uses unpublished data from official sources to analyze variations in urban marital and overall fertility in Eastern Australia between 1966-71 and between 1971-76. It further attempts to assess the relevance of the convergence thesis to changing fertility patterns and to evaluate the utility of an ecologic analysis of interurban fertility differences. The data indicate that urban fertility levels declined dramatically in 1966-76 and interurban differentials were substantially reduced. By 1976, the 2-child family norm had been widely adopted throughout Australia, regardless of region, community size, or sociocultural composition. Examination of marital fertility trends suggests that, although different areas had different elasticities of response to cyclical fertility movements in the 1960s, the magnitude of these differences was insufficient to do more than slow the pace of the decline while increasing the pace of interarea differential convergence. Declines in both proportions married and marital fertility after 1971 were reflected in declining overall fertility in all urban areas in Eastern Australia. During this period, however, divergence replaced the convergence evident in the 1960s. The present high level of uniformity in both marital and overall fertility rates throughout the study area about mean levels means that the regionally variable effects of future cyclical changes in fertility levels may be difficult to identify. As a result, detailed analyses at the individual/behavioral level that focus specifically on attitudes, values, and family size preferences may be more appropriate for understanding of post-transitional demographic change than studies based on spatial analyses at the local level.     

Agricultural variation and human fertility in antebellum Pennsylvania

Focus in this discussion is on research designed to examine human fertility variation in 59 Pennsylvania counties in 1850 and 1860. The research goes beyond previous historical studies in examining the relationship between land quality and fertility and in separating the possible impacts of settlement from the availability of land for agricultural purposes. The measure of human fertility used in the analysis was the child-woman ratio, defined as the number of children aged 0-4/1000 white women aged 15-49. In 1850 the child-woman ratio ranged from 488-889. The child-woman ratio fell slightly between 1850 and 1860, and county level variation was reduced. Yet, Pennsylvania counties varied substantially in fertility levels during this period. The range between the highest and lowest fertility countries was over 400 children in 1850 and almost 350 in 1860. The set of agricultural variables displayed expected differences at the 2 time periods. The excess demand for farmsites increased between 1850 and 1860, while the variation in demand decreased by over one-half, reflecting additional settlement within all acres of the state. The settlement ratio increased over the decade; the sex ratio declined, most likely in response to outmigration westward. The agricultural variables were all negatively related to the child-woman ratio and were statistically significant, except for the labor/acre variable. The strongest correlation in 1850 was between the excess demand for farmsites and fertility. This coefficient indicated that the greater the excess demand for farmsites, the lower the child-woman ratio. This relationship was attentuated somewhat for 1860, yet it continued to be negative and statistically significant. The socioeconomic and demographic variables were all related to fertility in the expected direction, but only 5 of the 7 correlations were statistically significant in 1850 and 6 in 1860. The settlement ratio, sex ratio, percent urban, distance to urban place, and the measure of female age composition were all significantly related to fertility in 1850 and 1860. The study results support the growing body of research which has identified agricultural opportunity as a significant factor in fertility in rural areas of 19th century America. The findings also suggest that the importance of agricultural opportunity extended beyond the frontier period.     

Population studies

Contributions to the study of migration, fertility and mortality are discussed in this literature review article. Characteristics of migrants and the social and economic impact of migration are mentioned as well as temporal or spatial trends in fertility, research on the family and the household, secular changes in fertility patterns, and theoretical developments. Also covered are mortality variations and the relationships between fertility and mortality.     

Regional Fertility Differentials and the Effect of Migration: An Analysis of U.S. State-level Data

This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, the influence of interregional migration on regional fertility differentials. Specifically, it tests the hypothesis that regions that are closely linked through migration have, all else held constant, a lower differential in fertility than regions that are relatively isolated from one another. A model linking the fertility differential between two states to migration as well as a number of socioeconomic variables is articulated. The model is tested by means of a randomization procedure using U.S. state-level data for 1980. Results support the hypothesis that an increasing volume of interregional migration tends to lower regional fertility differentials.