“陕甘宁反特第一案”侦破记

抗日战争初期,一批军统特务受国民党派遣,混入我陕北根据地进行破坏活动。对此保持高度警觉的我党,在延安通过历时3年的秘战,在情报保卫战线上打了一次漂亮的锄奸歼灭战,破获特务之多前所未有,被称为＂陕甘宁反特第一案＂,但由此也引发我党整风运动中的扩大化行为。     

Climate in the eastern Mediterranean,and adjacent regions,during the past 6000 years – A review

The eastern Mediterranean, with its long archaeological and historical records, provides a unique opportunity to study human responses to climate variability. We review paleoclimate data and reconstructions from the region with a focus on the last 6000 years. We aim to provide an up-to-date source of information on climate variability and to outline present limitations and future opportunities. The review work is threefold: (1) literature review, (2) spatial and temporal analysis of proxy records, and (3) statistical estimation of uncertainties in present paleoclimate reconstructions (temperature, °C). On a regional scale the review reveals a wetter situation from 6000 to 5400 yrs BP (note: all ages in this paper are in calibrated years before present (i.e. before 1950), abbreviated yrs BP, unless otherwise stated). This is followed by a less wet period leading up to one of fully-developed aridity from c. 4600 yrs BP. There is a need for more high-resolution paleoclimate records, in order to (i) better understand regional patterns and trends versus local climate variability and to (ii) fill the gap of data from some regions, such as the Near East, Greece and Egypt. Further, we evaluate the regional occurrence of a proposed widespread climate event at 4200 yrs BP. This proposed climate anomaly has been used to explain profound changes in human societies at different locations in the region around this time. We suggest that although aridity was widespread around 4200 yrs BP in the eastern Mediterranean region, there is not enough evidence to support the notion of a climate event with rapidly drying conditions in this region.     

Climate change and security: examining China's challenges in a warming world

The environment is increasingly affected by global climate change. While the causes of climate change are generated across the globe, the impacts of climate change will be highly variable at the local level. An increased scientific understanding of the potential impacts that climate change may have within China has raised new concern among China's leaders. Given that China's domestic realities inform its international policy choices, understanding how climate change may affect its population and natural resources is critical to global climate stabilization efforts. This article examines how the impacts of climate change on China, and China's response, will drive security challenges domestically, as well as in the greater Asian region and around the world. It shows that the impact of climate change on China will be significant and may have sizable adverse economic implications, particularly on vulnerable east coast economic centers. Water scarcity is a problem that already challenges China's leadership and one that will be exacerbated under projected climate impacts. In addition, the country faces the risk of international retaliation should it fail to undertake serious greenhouse gas mitigation actions. Yet China is not without options, and is already well poised to become a leader in the low-carbon technology revolution.     

关中平原气候变化对低温天气的影响

本文利用陕西省关中平原地区自西向东的宝鸡、泾阳、西安、潼关 4个观测站的逐日气温资料和逐日降水资料 ,分析了关中平原 195 7年到 1972年 16年间本区春季气温、降水与春季低温天气的关系。揭示出关中平原地区春季低温天气发生次数与春季气温存在负相关性 ,与春季降水存在正相关性 ;在所研究的时间段内 ,关中平原地区气候变化趋于冷干 ,春季气候变化趋于冷湿 ,该区春季低温天气的天数趋于增多 ;低温天气的出现与温度的变幅有一定关系。     

五帝时代(距今6-4千年)中国的气候

历史学研究表明,古代文献如《史记》记载的五帝:黄帝、颛顼、帝喾、唐尧、虞舜,可能应该视为一个时代,而不局限于五个人。获得较多支持的观点是:这个时代约在6-4kaBP,而且也不限于华夏集团,至少还包括东夷集团、苗蛮集团等。因此,从地望上讲,也不限于中原地区,还包括东部沿海及长江中游。考古学研究表明,6-4kaBP正是新石器时代晚期,后期可称为铜石并用时代。从考古文化来看,中原地区为仰韶文化中、晚期到龙山文化。东部地区为大汶口文化及(山东)龙山文化。其中在3500BC是仰韶文化中、晚期的交界,以及大汶口文化早、中期的交界。环境考古研究表明,6-4kaBP是一个由湿润气候向干旱气候转变的过渡时期。特别6.0-5.6kaBP有湿润气候的证据。4kaBP前后则明显进入晚全新世的干旱期,在此期间还包括5.5kaBP和4.2-4.0kaBP两次气候突变。现代气候资料及模拟研究表明,由早、中全新世的湿润气候向晚全新世的干旱气候转变的主要原因为岁差变化。但是,5.5kaBP及4.2-4.0kaBP的两次冷干气候突变,则可能与热盐环流的突然减弱有关,而热盐环流减弱可能是太阳活动减弱的结果。     

All That Is Solid Melts into the Bay: Anticipatory Ruination and Climate Change Adaptation

This paper explores the shaping of Bangladesh's southern coastal region, often framed as the most climate vulnerable place in the world, as a zone of climate crisis. As rising waters threaten communities inhabiting the low‐lying coastal islands scattered across the deltaic plain, many within the government and donor community have identified shrimp aquaculture as a principal adaptation strategy. Shrimp aquaculture is integral to the dynamics of what I call anticipatory ruination, a discursive and material process of social and ecological destruction in anticipation of real or perceived threats. I elaborate anticipatory ruination as a process that both responds to and produces Bangladesh's climate crisis. I use this concept to explore not only the dynamics taking place in Bangladesh's delta region, but also the ways in which climate crisis is constituted more broadly.     

Climate Leviathan

Abstract: While there is much justifiable attention to the ecological implications of global climate change, the political implications are just as important for human well‐being and social justice. We posit a basic framework by which to understand the range of political possibilities, in light of the response of global elites to climate warming and the challenges it poses to hegemonic institutional and conceptual modes of governance and accumulation. The framework also suggests some possible means through which these responses might be thwarted, and political stakes in that construction of a new hegemony—which, to avoid suggesting we know or can yet determine the form it will take, we call “climate X”.     

四～五世纪气候暖干事件对塔里木盆地人类文明兴衰的影响

考古发掘资料和零星的史载资料表明 ,在约 4～ 5世纪时期塔里木盆地人类文明发生第一次大规模变迁 ,很多古城在此时期衰落与消亡。同时塔里木盆地及其相邻地区的古气候环境演变研究成果表明 ,在 1.9ka BP～ 1.5 ka BP(公元 2世纪～ 6世纪 )期间 ,气候为一相对的暖干期 ,而在 4～ 5世纪时 ,其暖干的气候达到了峰值。塔里木盆地人类文明的第一次大规模变迁与古气候的暖干化在时间上的一致性说明两者之间有着必然的内在联系。气候环境的暖干化可能是导致塔里木盆地人类文明在 4～ 5世纪发生第一次大规模变迁的根本原因 ,气候环境的暖干化导致水量的明显减少、人类生存环境发生恶化、生存资源减少、生存空间缩小等一系列变化 ,最终导致古城的衰亡 ,影响到人类文明的变迁     

采用物候学研究历史气候方法问题的讨论——答《再论唐代长江上游地区的荔枝分布北界及其与气温波动的关系》一文

根据成都、万州等地区长时段的历史文献记载和现在植物状况来看,唐代这两个地区是应该有荔枝生长的。三种分布类型都应有气候学的指示意义,只是在显现气候指示程度上有差异。所以,成都和万州荔枝的生长分布有一定气候指示意义。区域小气候是受大的气候背景变化影响的,只是由于小区域的自然差异会左右受大气变化影响的程度。所以,长江上游荔枝分布是可以指示气候的。历史气候的研究应树立宏观、长时段的研究视角,重视田野考察,讲求逻辑思维,充分利用现代科技手段。     

Climate Maps in National Atlases

A complete climate section of a national atlas should contain maps, tables and graphs presenting data on climate-forming factors, the temperature regime, moisture supply, climatic regions and typical weather situations. Published national atlases are analyzed and recommendations for the treatment of climate are made. Particular importance is attached to the integrated presentation of several climatic elements on a single map. The value of climatic maps for various segments of the economy (agriculture, construction, transportation) is emphasized.     

Climate change perceptions and responses in Scotland's ski industry

The negative impacts of climate change for the ski industry have been well documented. However, research has largely focused on key ski markets in North America and Continental Europe. The study presented in this paper addresses climate change perceptions and responses in the more marginal ski destination of Scotland. Using a qualitative, interpretivist methodology, this paper contributes through a local-scale, single-site study of a ski area where technical adaptations are not utilised and which therefore relies on business responses to climate change. Findings suggest that while local weather is perceived to be a large and unmanageable risk to the industry, and a downward trend is identified in terms of snow reliability, these risks are not perceived to be connected to the wider anthropogenic climate change discourse. Waiting for knowledge to increase before taking adaptive action appears to be the most popular business strategy; however, autonomous adaptation is taking place in the form of business diversification, which mitigates against risks including, but not limited to, climate change. This paper concludes that experiences and perceptions of climate change will be highly localised and as a result so too will adaptive behaviours. Marginal ski destinations such as Scotland will be facing a range of non-climatic impacts which will contribute to their contextual vulnerability to climate change and capacity to adapt.