对城市人口分布与商业网点布局相关性的探讨

城市是人口和各种社会经济活动高度集聚的地域。满足人民的需要是城市商服、金融、文卫等项事业布局的基本原则。近几年来,笔者结合土地管理体制改革进行了人口分布与多种城市用地配置关系的探讨。本文是对天津市区人口分布与商业网点布局既互相吸引又在一定程度上互相排斥的关系的分析阐述。     

ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY WITHIN AND BETWEEN EUROPEAN NATIONS: THE ROLE OF MARKET POTENTIAL AND DENSITY ACROSS SPACE AND TIME*

ABSTRACT In explaining the uneven spatial distribution of economic activity, urban economics, and new economic geography (NEG) dominate recent research in economics. A main difference between these two approaches is that NEG stresses the role of spatial linkages whereas urban economics does not do so. We estimate simple versions of these two views on economic geography and also establish if the relevance of spatial linkages varies across aggregation levels or time. For our sample of 14 European countries and 213 corresponding regions, we find that spatial linkages are more important at the country level and that its relevance varies across time.     

中国城市人口集聚分布——基于空间效应的研究

城市人口集聚分布以及城市带的形成是一个空间现象,空间力量对其形成和演化具有重要影响。本文应用空间计量经济学与趋势面分析相结合方法,以617个县级以上城市1998年和2011年的城镇人口和经纬度坐标数据来研究中国城市人口空间集聚分布与趋势。研究发现,中国城市人口分布与其周围相邻城市的人口分布关系密切,并且其6阶空间自相关效应是最强的;同时地理位置对中国城市人口体系的空间分布和纵向形态形成具有显著影响。在空间自相关和空间位置相关的共同作用下,城市人口规模聚集区已在东部沿海地区形成。     

基于街道尺度的南京市老年人口空间分布演变研究

基于南京市第五次和第六次人口普查分乡镇、街道数据,通过街道和圈层双尺度分析了人口老龄化的程度差异、空间差异以及空间相关性,探讨南京市街道老年人口的空间分布格局,采用热点区演化分析了街道老年人口的时空演变特征。结果显示:①近10年南京市街道老龄化系数总体上呈现"跨越式"圈层蔓延扩散的空间分布特征,处于老年人口成长阶段的街道由分布在中心城区和主城区的交界地带转变为向主城区蔓延的趋势,轻度老龄化的街道分布在中心城区,中度老龄化阶段的街道集中分布在主城区和郊区,重度老龄化阶段的街道以郊区为主。②街道老年人口密度类型为密集区,密度最高的区域位于中心城区,郊区次之,主城区内密度最低。③南京市街道人口老龄化率呈现显著的空间正相关,随着时间的推移,街道人口老龄化在空间上的差异增大,集聚效应减弱,空间上的发展渐趋不均衡。热点区分布呈现"冷-次冷-次热-热"的圈层式空间分布格局。④从历史因素、人口生命周期、城市变迁三个角度分析了影响南京市老年人口分布和演变的主要因素。     

METHODOLOGY FOR THE PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF q FACTORS. A DAMAGE INDEX APPROACH

The objective of the present work is to present a methodology for the identification of relevant limit states, namely ultimate limit states leading to structural collapse, and for the assessment of design q factors (or force reduction factors) for reinforced concrete structures under seismic loading. It follows a probabilistic approach based on damage indices. The utilised nonlinear models, as well as the damage indices, which are those proposed by Miner and by Park and Ang, are.described. The methodology of analysis is presented emphasising its probabilistic characteristics. Some parametric studies are carried out, including the analysis of one regular plane frame reinforced concrete structure, designed for three different ductility classes (those proposed by Eurocode 8) and assuming different q factors in design. Results show how the chosen damage indices can be used as parameters to characterise the structural response and how the proposed methodology can be used to assess the design q factors. It is also shown that, for moderate seismic input, the three ductility classes are essentially equivalent in terms of maximum damage indices, but that for higher seismic levels the differences are evident, justifying the use of different q factors.     

乡村旅游地的空间再生产权能及其空间正义实现路径——地役权视角下的多案例透析

针对中国乡村旅游空间实践中存在的空间生产非正义问题及其制度缺陷症结,在空间正义和依法治旅语境下,文章通过对地役权的空间再生产权能、权能空间生产及其空间正义的系统阐释,并结合多个乡村旅游案例的分析,构建了旅游地役权的权能空间再生产与空间正义实现概念模型,以期探寻中国乡村旅游地空间正义实现的法理路径。研究表明,地役权可以凭借其需役地和供役地的权能空间再生产及其权利人之间的竞合博弈机制,将物权与空间生产联系起来,使当地居民的资源环境权益与旅游开发企业的资本权益实现有法（律）可依;空间生产正义与分配正义的有机统一实乃地役权制度的题中之义,启用地役权正当其时,并将有助于建立乡村旅游地的空间正义法治体系。     

城市公交网点与人口分布互动关系的理论模型

众所周知,城市公交网点建设与人口再分布互动关联,且两者互动方式有章可寻。分析了常规公交、轨道交通与人口互动关系差异的原因,通过构建理论模型,分别阐述了常规公交、轨道交通与人口互动发展的不同方式,并搜集实际案例加以佐证,从理论上,实践上,深层次地揭示了两种公交与人口互动的差异性及基本规律,以期待为城市公交的建设和发展提供相关的理论依据。     

POPULATION ANALYSIS ON THE MICROCOMPUTER: A SYSTEM OF SOFTWARE PACKAGES

This paper describes a system of versatile software packages that has been developed by the author for population analysis on IBM-compatible microcomputers using PC or MS DOS. The series includes programs for the production of life tables, the analysis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in mortality, population projections, stationary-state population simulations and demographic planning, cohort survival estimates of net migration, and the analysis of migration matrices. Each of the programs in the series is discussed in terms of its principal analytical features, associated conceptual and methodological issues, and potential applications. The programs are intended for use both as basic research and planning tools and as instructional aids in university-level courses. The programs and related documentation are available on a set of four 360K diskettes.     

POPULATION DENSITY IN A CENTRAL‐PLACE SYSTEM

The existing empirical literature about polycentric population density has focused on the urban scale, and the alternative models proposed in that context have been justified using heuristic arguments. This paper describes how polycentric density distributions can, in general, be endowed with a theoretical framework which differs from the existing literature with respect to the treatment of centers: instead of assuming that they represent places of work, it assumes they are places that provide goods and services to households. This imposes a hierarchical structure on the model, which allows replacing the set of distances to all centers (typically used in the existing literature as the same explanans irrespectively of location) with a smaller set of distances that corresponds to the number of levels in the hierarchy and varies with location. The central‐place framework used also provides a direct link between a polycentric model and the Clark formula, in the sense that the latter can emerge through a smoothing procedure of the former. Finally, in the context of central places, the scope of related empirical investigations can be extended naturally from the urban to the regional scale. This is the scale of a simple test presented here, which has been specifically included to support the corresponding theoretical arguments about the structure of a polycentric density gradient. The paper concludes with some expected problems and advantages of applying these ideas to the urban scale.     

ON THE INADVISABILITY OF THE PROJECTED DAM ACROSS KERCH' STRAIT

The proposed dam across the Kerch' Strait is opposed both on econonic grounds and because it is unlikely to achieve its basic purpose of reducing the salinity level in the Sea of Azov and restoring earlier fish productivity. Calculations are presented to show that the additional streamflow into the Sea of Azov needed to reduce salinity from the present 15 per thousand to 10 per thousand would be far more costly than the revenue that could be derived from fisheries. It is proposed that the loss in fish productivity in the Sea of Azov might be compensated for far more economically by developing pond fisheries in the drainage basin and by introducing brackish-water and marine species into the sea.     

剥夺或重构:网络休闲对非网络休闲行为空间的影响——基于“开心农场”游戏用户的案例研究

网络休闲作为现代人休闲活动中的重要部分,影响着实体空间中的休闲活动,为了辨明其影响表现,本文以"开心农场"游戏用户为案例,通过问卷调查获取第一手资料,分析结果显示:首先,人们从事网络休闲的时间越长,对网络休闲的依赖度越高;其次,网络休闲活动越多,非网络休闲活动的距离衰减现象越明显;再次,网络休闲对非网络休闲行为空间构成重构或剥夺的影响,取决于网络休闲的投入程度。对新生期和成长期玩家构成重构的影响;对成熟期和老龄期玩家构成剥夺的影响,并得到线性预测方程。最后,研究局限性和后续可展开的研究被提出。     

兰州市老龄人口空间分布及其形成机制

文章运用2000年第五次及2010年第六次人口普查数据,对兰州市主城区老龄人口的空间分布及其形成机制进行了分析。结果表明:兰州市老龄人口增速快,各区增长差异显著,街区差距相对缓和;老龄人口比重呈圈层结构分布,街区间比重差异明显,老龄人口高密度街区范围扩大,空间特征呈现出明显的"双中心"结构;高龄老人增速快,老龄人口性别比下降,空巢家庭日益增加,老年抚养负担加重。其形成机制主要缘于历史沿革、社会发展、人口生育政策以及人口迁移的共同作用。     

空间的生产研究综述与展望

伴随人文地理学空间概念的"社会转向"和社会学中的"空间转向",社会空间问题成为当今学术研究的一个新的热点,"空间的生产"理论则作为一种新的理论视角,日益被越来越多的中国学者所认同和运用。然而,总体来看,目前国内对空间的生产的研究还有待完善,尤其缺乏一个整体的、能够跨越学科界限的理论框架。本文在梳理现有国内外有关空间的生产的研究的基础上,根据研究对象将现有理论归纳为三大方向(宏观、微观和一般研究),然后,重点从宏观和微观角度对现有研究进行了归纳;借鉴卡斯特尔斯等人的分析框架,构建了包含在地化和去地化两大核心过程的空间的生产理论分析框架,并基于此框架指出,资本的循环过程、转型期的社会运动、政府的企业化和土地利用政策、规划和空间正义是顺应中国实际需求的、未来有待进一步深化的研究话题。最后,作者也指出了空间生产研究方法上需要注意的集中倾向。     

区域一体化的人口增长与集散效应——以长三角地区为例

城市群一体化深化过程中,如何引导人口布局优化,是推动经济社会高质量发展的重要举措之一。本文基于长三角1990—2017年城市尺度数据,采用双重差分模型,多角度检验一体化的城市人口增长效应,并初步探讨相关驱动机制。结果表明：(1)一体化能够显著促进城市人口更快增长,且城市就业人口规模越大、人口集聚效应越显著。(2)总体效应的显著性,并不能掩盖一体化过程中人口集聚效应的异质性,一方面随着加入协调会时间的推进,不同阶段效应由正转负,另一方面存在不同批次间效应先增长后下降的差异。(3)一体化过程中要素集聚带来的经济发展水平提升,是城市人口更快增长的关键动力,中介效应与调节效应模型验证了这一假设。