DISTANCE FROM URBAN AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES AND RURAL POVERTY*

ABSTRACT Despite strong national economic growth and significant poverty reduction during the late 1990s, high poverty persisted in remote rural areas. This study uses a geographical information system county database to examine the nexus between rural U.S. poverty and remoteness. We find that poverty rates increase with greater rural distances from successively larger metropolitan areas (MAs). We explain this outcome as arising from the attenuation of urban agglomeration effects at greater distances and incomplete commuting and migration responses to lower labor demand in rural areas. One implication is that remote areas may particularly experience greater reductions in poverty from place‐based economic development policies.     

Poor people on the move: county-to-county migration and the spatial concentration of poverty

Poverty rates in high-poverty and low-poverty rural counties, and, thus, the spatial concentration of poverty, are affected by poverty-specific differences in in-migration and out-migration patterns. These patterns are investigated using 1985–90 county-to-county migration data from the decennial census. Effects on poverty rates of four migration flows (in- and out-migration of poor, in- and out-migration of nonpoor) are quantified, and their impacts on spatial concentration of poverty are assessed. The effect of selected county characteristics on the migration of the poor and nonpoor in nonmetro counties are estimated. The poor are as mobile as the nonpoor, and the migration patterns of both poor and nonpoor generally maintain and reinforce the pre-existing spatial concentration of poverty.     

Rural Youth Migration Trends in Australia: an Overview of Recent Trends and Two Inland Case Studies

Much of what has been written on the topic of Australian rural youth migration trends and processes has often proceeded from data‐free, or data‐poor grounds. In this context, this paper analyses recent trends in youth (15 to 24 years of age) migration for a temporally‐consistent set of Statistical Divisions (SDs) in inland rural Australia, and for local government areas within the Northern Tablelands and Slopes and Ranges of northern New South Wales and the Western Australian Central Wheatbelt. The paper finds that rates of youth loss from rural regions have increased over the past twenty years. Yet the patterns, processes, causes and impacts of rural youth migration are distributed in a spatially‐uneven fashion. Some remote areas are receiving net migration gains while booming ‘sea change’ coastal regions have experienced heavy losses. While the ‘flight to the bright city lights’ syndrome is evident, relatively high proportions of young people in the Northern SD of NSW move within their immediate region. Nevertheless, some common understandings concerning youth mobility were also confirmed. Gender differentials in migration propensity between women and men are evident even at quite local scales. Young people are also more likely to search out capital cities than the rest of the population. Most inland areas still continue to experience heavy losses of local youth. A more precise understanding of rural youth migration trends is an important stepping stone in the establishment of a reinvigorated research effort into young rural people's perspectives of their changing life chances in their home communities.     

Contextualizing Welfare's Work Disincentive: The Case of Female-headed Family Poverty

The conventional model of the relationship between welfare incentives and poverty rates holds that welfare payments produce an income-enhancement effect that removes families from poverty until some threshold. Beyond this point increased payments engender a work-disincentive effect resulting in increased rates of poverty. We challenge the model's assumption that poverty levels are a simple and spatially invariant response to welfare incentives, contending instead that local employment conditions may substantially alter the relation. Our reformulation of the conventional modeling approach is based on the expansion method. Specifically, we extend the model to include the effects of local labor-market conditions on the response of poverty levels to welfare incentives. In contesting the invariance assumption, the expansion method allows us to determine where and in what contexts welfare is “work discouraging.” The empirical analysis, which is undertaken at the county level, indicates that welfare payments vary in their influence on poverty rates across different employment contexts. A national map portraying this parameter instability demonstrates that female-family poverty rates are most responsive to welfare assistance in the rural South and least responsive in the metropolitan Northeast. Finally, we examine two sharply contrasting locales to illustrate how poverty is governed by specific employment and welfare characteristics.     

Declining Youth In‐migration in Rural Western Australia: the Role of Perceptions of Rural Employment and Lifestyle Opportunities

Over the last two decades there has been a steady decline in youth migration to Australian rural communities. Generally, inland agricultural communities are the most seriously impacted by this trend. Coupled with high rates of youth out‐migration, many rural communities face difficulties in attracting young people to fill skilled job vacancies and apprentice positions. Declining youth in‐migration also has social consequences, effectively reducing the capacity of rural communities to replenish their skill base and social networks. This research identifies how urban‐based youth perceive rural lifestyles and employment opportunities and how this is linked to their willingness to move to rural areas. The study reveals that young people attach undesirable aesthetic values to the physical environment of inland rural communities and perceive them as socially isolating and as having minimal opportunities for career advancement. However, the perceptions of those who live, or had lived, in rural areas are far more positive than those who have had little experience in rural communities. Accordingly, those who had previously lived in inland regions were far more likely to move to rural areas than those who had limited lived experience of rural communities. Overall, the research found that perceptions of lifestyle and employment opportunities were important influences on young people's willingness to move to rural communities.     

MIGRATION AND SELF‐SELECTION: MEASURED EARNINGS AND LATENT CHARACTERISTICS*

ABSTRACT Research in regional and labor economics has established that economic incentives play a significant role in the process of internal migration. The most common approach is to view migration as a form of human capital investment undertaken by individuals who expect to benefit from the standpoint of increased earnings. One of the central concepts in these models is self‐selection. Individuals who self‐select the option of migration tend to differ from the nonmigrant population in ways that are not measured in most data sets. The contribution of this paper is in its distinction between two aspects of migrant selection. On one hand, some workers possess unmeasured traits that might simultaneously affect their wages and their propensity to engage in risky human capital investment such as migration. On the other hand, measured earnings might exert a direct effect on migration. Based on samples of employed Swedish males and females at two points in time, this study seeks first to examine whether migration between the two periods occurs in the presence of correlation between unmeasured factors present in both earnings during the first period and the subsequent decision to migrate. Second, it looks for an explicit role of earnings per se in the migration decision. Results of the study provide support for selection based on unmeasured traits for both genders. For females, there is also evidence of selection based on measured earnings.     

Youthful Creativity in Regional Australia: Panacea for Unemployment and Out‐Migration?

This paper addresses the theme of youth out‐migration from rural Australia, in the context of recent policy discussions about creativity and its role in regional development. Ethnographic fieldwork in one rural location – the New South Wales Far North Coast – is drawn upon to highlight how creative industries are being cast as a potential way of promoting cultural activities and jobs for young people, and in turn, how they might be imagined as a means to mitigate youth out‐migration. Yet, creative industries have contradictory employment and social outcomes. Creative industries are likely to generate higher rates of youth participation in economic activities than public data reveal. However, strategies for future job growth should also consider the limitations and instabilities of creative industry employment. Second, and more broadly, the paper discusses those socio‐cultural dimensions of nascent creative industries that may have a more substantial impact when conceived as part of strategies to stem youth exodus from rural areas. Creative activities may contribute to rural development in indirect ways, especially if linked to policy goals of increased tolerance of youth activities, better provision of cultural services, and improved well‐being for young people. While formal job‐creation may be limited, creative industries could mitigate some of the impacts of youth migration to cities by enriching regional social life and mediating perceptions of the advantages and drawbacks of rural versus urban life. This kind of policy imagination requires a shift in attitudes towards young people and a more genuine commitment to encourage young people to feel that they belong in non‐metropolitan areas.     

Migration and market wage risk

The author presents an approach to the analysis of labor migration that incorporates the role of market wage variability as a source of information in individual migration decisions. "The focus...is on quantifying the effects of the origin market acting through amenities and the share of market-specific wage variability as it affects forecasts of alternative wages and forecast precision. A subsample of employed males...from the [U.S.] National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLS) age 16 to 22 years is used for estimation. The empirical results are consistent with the theoretically predicted relationship between migration propensities and regional differences in the information content of wages. In addition, the results provide evidence that risk aversion deters migration given uncertainty, measured by forecast precision, about alternative market wage levels."     

Reevaluating the Relationship Between In‐, Out‐, and Net Migration for Nonmetropolitan Counties: An Update on Beale's U‐Shaped Curve

The relationship of gross migration to net migration is continuously undergoing reevaluation in the literature. However, one major finding by Beale (1969) that produced the famous u‐shaped curve has received little attention, a surprising situation considering the significant changes that have taken place in rural America since 1969. In this paper I use gross migration data from IRS returns for 1995–1998, and differentiate the rates using a number of classification schemes developed by the USDA and the Census Bureau. The results show that rural America is a diverse place, and that migration rates vary tremendously depending on the geographic, economic, and social characteristics of the county. Furthermore, the relationship between gross and net migration varies much more than previously suggested, especially in negative net migration counties, a finding with implications for migration theory and public policy.     

河南省县域贫困程度及影响因素分析

贫困地区的地理识别,是区域扶贫政策精准、有效实施的前提。以经济指标衡量河南省县域相对贫困程度,并借助有序logit回归模型分析社会经济发展、自然条件、区位交通、历史基础4类变量16个影响因子对区域贫困状况的影响程度。分析发现,河南省县域综合经济发展水平存在较大的区域差异,经济发展水平相对较低的县域多分布在豫西和豫东南,且区域内存在部分潜在贫困县。回归分析结果表明,工业化水平、居民储蓄水平、气温、湿度、到最近城市的距离、国道道路密度、期初经济水平7个因子对县域贫困程度影响显著。地区扶贫政策实施过程中,在重视经济因素的减贫效应时,也应重视自然因素的致贫效应,政府主导,因地制宜,逐步实现区域协调发展。     

EMPLOYMENT,INCOME, AND MIGRATION IN APPALACHIA: A SPATIAL SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS APPROACH*

ABSTRACT Appalachia remains a symbol of poverty in the midst of prosperity. During the 1990s it fell further behind the rest of the nation. Persistent poverty during a period of strong growth is a serious as well as an interesting subject to study. We examine determinants of growth in Appalachia between 1990 and 2000. We show that employment, migration, and median household income were jointly determined by regional covariates and that county economic conditions were conditional on the performance in neighboring counties. One conclusion is that regional cooperation and geographically focused programs may yield the greatest returns to policy investments.     

Public Intervention and Poverty Alleviation: A Study of the Declining Incidence of Rural Poverty in Kerala,India

In the context of the continuing and lively debate on the estimates, trends and determinants of rural poverty in India, this article examines the sharp decline, since the late 1970s, in the incidence of rural poverty in the state of Kerala, well known for its record of social development. It is argued that, given the slow rate of growth of the Kerala economy in general and agriculture in particular since the mid-1970s, the ‘trickle down’ theory cannot explain the decline in poverty. Similarly, the fact that rural wages have increased faster than the consumer price index does not constitute a sufficient condition for crossing the poverty line. Expansion of state-directed programmes is seen to be the single most important determinant in reducing rural poverty. The effect of public intervention programmes is roughly estimated to be equal to one fifth of the consumption of rural labour households. The lesson of Kerala for poverty alleviation is that social protection expressed in terms of meeting the basic consumption requirements of the poor, especially the vulnerable among the poor, should be a necessary component of development policy. However, this is not a sufficient condition: there should also be a growth strategy which would provide adequate employment to all members of the labour force from the poorer sections of the population. The current line of official thinking in India, in the context of economic liberalization, is hardly conducive to such a strategy.     

Estate youth and complicated migration in Malaysia's oil palm plantations: the emotions of leaving and connecting back

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the emotional relationship young Tamil Indians have with oil palm plantations they are leaving behind or have left behind. Working in a small town in Malaysia, as well as in a large estate, we show how communal and individual aspirations of migration shape young people's mobility. While young people recognize the poverty and marginalization of plantation life, they continue to be emotionally and affectually connected to plantations through socio-cultural and spiritual practices. Post-migration we show how youth maintain estate connections, and argue that the pull back towards plantations is contrary to state-sponsored ideologies of modernization. Not all young people feel the same pull; many try to distance themselves from their estate roots through consumption and other social practices. Responding to calls for researchers emotions to be present in youth research, the paper also briefly reflects how adult emotions shape our understanding of young people's emotions of migration.     

RURAL–URBAN MIGRATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT: THEORY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS*

ABSTRACT We develop a regional model where, in the city, unemployment prevails because of too high (efficiency) wages, while, in the rural area, workers are paid at their marginal productivity. We characterize the steady‐state equilibrium and show that it is unique. We then consider two policies: decreasing urban unemployment benefits and subsidizing urban employment. We find that decreasing the unemployment benefit in the city creates urban jobs and reduces rural–urban migration since new migrants have to spend some time unemployed before they can find a job in the city. On the other hand, raising employment subsidies increases urban employment but may also increase urban unemployment because it triggers more rural–urban migration. In this respect, the employment subsidy policy can backfire by raising rather than reducing urban unemployment.     

The effects of internal migration on regional wage and unemployment disparities in Canada

"This paper examines the role of the migration mechanism in the context of a general interregional factor flow adjustment model. Using an estimation technique, which pools cross-section and time series data, the direct effects of migration flows and regional investment on the growth of regional wages and unemployment [in Canada] are examined. The results suggest that migration has a small, but significant impact on regional wages and unemployment rates."     

Urban bound migration and rural investment: the case of Mexico

The authors investigate an agriculturally based policy for improving rural incomes and for retarding the rural-urban migration flow. The production of agricultural goods is characterized by a production function in which output increases with increases in agricultural labor inputs, capital, public infrastructure, land, and technology. Differences among regions in agricultural technology will reflect regional differences in education, the institutionalized form of productive organization, and differences in access to technological information channeled through more technically advanced cities. To pick up the effect of out-migration changes in state agricultural labor supply and upon agricultural output, the state's agricultural out-migration rate is included together with the agricultural labor force. The gross migrant flow between 2 locations is hypothesized to depend upon a set of variables influencing the individual's perception of the economic rate of return to be gained by moving, a set of variables reflecting the individual's propensity to relocate, the labor displacement effects of investments, and the at risk population at 1 location available to migrate. It is also taken into account that individuals differ in their response to information about origin and destination wage differentials and that individuals may or may not perceive a new ecnomic gain from migration but may base the decision on other considerations. Results of a statistical analysis using data from the Mexican census of population for 1960 and 1970 are: 1) size of the rural labor force was negatively associated with agricultural wages, contrary to expectations; 2) small farmers have benefited from the expansion of irrigation in Mexico; and 3) higher urban wages attract migration, and higher growth rate of agricultural income retards rural-urban migration. With respect to the 1950-60 decade both agricultural income and rural out-migration impacts could have been substantial but both the impact on local urban growth and on the rate of in-migration to the primate city would have been slight.     

协同学视角下的村域贫困风险耐受度诊断——以陕西省平利县为例

以陕西省平利县79个贫困村为研究对象，基于协同理论，建立贫困风险耐受度评价模型，利用主成分分析与地理加权回归方法，辨识平利县村域贫困风险因子，评测贫困村风险耐受度，并与贫困发生率进行对比验证。结果显示：自然本底、区位-生产资料、内外助力和生产生活保障等四个贫困风险因子作用方向有所差别；全县贫困风险耐受度处于中下水平；比对贫困风险耐受指数模型与贫困发生率现状，发现二者分布趋势相似性特征明显，未出现异常现象。后续应建立针对性的风险预测和防范机制，适量减少直接性福利供给，激发农户脱贫的内生动力，提升贫困户风险抵御力和恢复力，构建持续稳定的脱贫-振兴的扶贫新模式，持续监测县域贫困村贫困风险耐受度的时序变动特征。     

Worker Endowments and the Effects of Institutions on Earnings Realization: A Cross-National Comparison

In this study we investigate how differential institutions, and their observance within regional labor markets, impact potential earnings realization. We investigate institutional linkages to labor market outcomes by means of cross-nation comparisons between the United States and the Netherlands. In this regard, better job-matching (information) programs, higher relative unemployment benefits and minimum wages, and a greater prevalence of both trade unionism and collective bargaining likely work to the favor of Dutch workers, and in turnaugment their reservation wages during job search. The predictable outcome of higher earnings realization among Dutch workers is tested econometrically by frontier estimation.     

Migration, Job Change, and Wage Growth: A New Perspective on the Pecuniary Return to Geographic Mobility

Abstract Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, this study examines the pattern of early career job mobility and migration in a sample of young male workers. Primary interest lies in the between–job wage change accompanying job transitions as well as the extended time–profile of migrant earnings. When the sample of job transitions is partitioned by education level, contemporaneous returns are found only for workers with twelve or less years of completed schooling. In contrast, highly educated workers demonstrate significant extended returns to migration with the bulk of pecuniary rewards accruing with a lag of nearly two years.     

Does Agricultural Growth Matter in Poverty Alleviation?

This article uses a panel survey of households in the Indian state of Maharashtra to demonstrate that agricultural growth takes too long to trickle down to the rural poor. Unanticipated inflation, on the other hand, aggravates rural poverty, as does domination of the agricultural growth process by large landholders. This affects the poor through the oligopsonistic influence of the landholders in rural labour markets, dampening employment and wages (as compared with the outcome in a competitive market). In the context of structural adjustment, while the emphasis on allocative efficiency through withdrawal of input subsidies and remunerative prices for output is justified, acceleration in agricultural growth by itself is unlikely to make a dent in rural poverty. Measures designed to accelerate agricultural growth must therefore be supplemented by direct anti-poverty interventions. Consumer price stabilization is particularly important, and would be assisted by an overhaul of the Public Distribution System. Major reforms would include improved flexibility in the scale of the PDS, better targeting through alternative distribution networks when private trade channels are weak or non-existent, and simplification of registration procedures. The oligopsonistic role of large landholders could be curbed through market-mediated land redistribution, scrapping of all tenancy regulations when tenancy markets function efficiently, and through large-scale intervention in rural labour markets along the lines of the Employment Guarantee Scheme.