Scales of regional income disparities in the USA, 1955 2003

This article examines multiple dimensions of regional per capitaincome disparities in the USA between 1955 and 2003 with a particularfocus on scalar effects. It combines various exploratory analyticaltools of spatial disparities, including inequality indices,mobility indices, kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelationstatistics and scale variances, to analyse regional averageper capita income distributions at multiple spatial scales,ranging from counties to multi-state regions. The analysis revealspreviously unrecognised systematic patterns of cross-scalardynamics, whereby spatial income disparities are increasinglymore pronounced at smaller scales in the last few decades.     

RECESSIONARY SHOCKS AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE ON THE RESILIENCE OF U.K. REGIONS*

ABSTRACT We analyze the resilience of U.K. regions to employment shocks. Two basic notions of resilience are distinguished. With engineering resilience, there is an underlying stable growth path to which a regional economy rebounds following a shock. With ecological resilience, shocks can permanently affect the growth path of the regional economy. Our data set consists of quarterly employment series for 12 U.K. regions (NUTS I) for the period 1971–2010. Using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model specification, we test for the relevance of (engineering) resilience of U.K. regional employment to the four recessionary shocks in our sample. It turns out that U.K. regions do indeed differ in their resilience, but that these differences mainly concern the initial resistance to these shocks and not so much the recovery stage. The SUR model does not allow shocks to have permanent effects and it also does not take the possibility of time differentiated shock spillovers between the 12 regions into account. To this end, we also estimate a vector error‐correction model (VECM) specification where employment shocks can have permanent effects and where also interregional employment linkages are included. We find that employment shocks typically have permanent effects when it concerns the own‐region effects. Permanent effects can also be found for the impact on other regions but the interregional effects are typically only significant for nearby regions.     

FIRM HETEROGENEITY,MULTIPLANT CHOICE,AND AGGLOMERATION

We examine the organization and location choice of heterogeneous firms in a two‐region economy. When some high‐productivity firms engage in multiplant production, a reduction in transport costs causes two changes in a small region: the closure of plants by high‐productivity multiplant firms and the relocation of low‐productivity single‐plant firms to the region. In the presence of high‐productivity multiplant firms, therefore, a decline in transport costs reinforces the spatial sorting of firms by productivity, enlarging the productivity gap between large and small regions. Conversely, reducing investment costs weakens the spatial sorting effects on regional productivity disparities.     

ENTREPRENEURSHIP,INFORMATION, AND GROWTH

We examine the contribution to economic growth of entrepreneurial marketplace information within a regional endogenous growth framework. Entrepreneurs are posited to provide an input to economic growth through the information revealed by their successes and failures. We empirically identify this information source with the regional variation in establishment births and deaths. To account for the potential endogeneity caused by forward‐looking entrepreneurs, we utilize instruments based on historic mining activity. We find that the information spillover component of local establishment birth and death rates have significant positive effects on subsequent entrepreneurship and employment growth for U.S. counties and metropolitan areas.     

Urban,Suburban, and Exurban Sprawl in the Rocky Mountain West: Evidence from Regional Adjustment Models*

Abstract. This article adapts a regional adjustment model to examine land use change in the Rocky Mountain West region of the United States. Three interrelated questions motivate the research. How does the proliferation of urban, suburban, and exurban sprawl in the Rocky Mountain West relate to the population and employment growth process? Are population and employment endogenously determined there? And what does this imply for the sustainability of economic development in the region? Through a series of regional adjustment models, the empirical analysis links population and employment growth in the Rocky Mountain West to explicit spatial outcomes and delivers substantive evidence of endogeneity between the two. The results suggest that the long‐term prosperity of the region depends on the preservation of the high quality of life it offers, and that greater intergovernmental coordination, careful infrastructure planning, and attention to the character of its economic structure may help to accomplish this. Future research should focus on looking deeper into certain explanatory variables used in this analysis and on developing a better picture of what the spatial equilibrium that regional adjustment models emulate may look like.     

Regional Disparities,Industry and Government Policy in Japan

This paper examines the time path of regional per capita income disparities in Japan during the last three decades, and analyses the determinants of this path, including government policies. Regional disparities have been quite common in most countries, and the problem has proven to be relatively intractable, though varying in intensity across time and across countries. The Japanese case is instructive in that the country has experienced several stages of the problem in a relatively brief period, and has managed to limit spatial polarization to a certain degree. This paper identifies links between broad growth policy orientations with resultant changes in regional income disparities, and suggests their policy implications for both mature and developing economies.     

Does EU cohesion policy work? Theory and evidence

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of European Cohesion Policy in the regions of 12 EU countries in the period 1991–2008, on the basis of a spatial growth model, which allows for the identification of both direct and indirect effects of EU funds on GDP per worker growth. We find that “Objective 1” funds are characterized by strong spatial externalities and a positive and concave effect on the growth of GDP per worker, which reaches a peak at the ratio funds/GDP of approximately 3 percent and becomes non‐significant after 4 percent. “Objective 2” and “Cohesion” funds have nonsignificant effects, while all the other funds exert a positive and significant effect, but their size is very limited. EU Cohesion Policy, moreover, appears to have increased its effectiveness over time. In the period 2000–2006 Objective 1 funds are estimated to have a median multiplier equal to 1.52, and to have added 0.37 percent to the GDP per worker growth. Overall, in the period 1991–2008, funds are estimated to have added 1.4 percent to the median annual growth, and to have reduced regional disparities of 8 basis points in terms of the Gini index.     

Regional paths towards Europe 2020 targets: a spatial approach

Europe 2020 is a 10-year EU strategy, promoting smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. Despite ambitious goals, its spatially blinded approach might seriously threaten its success. Actually, large territorial disparities still affect the EU, being the basis for a strong EU-wide cohesion policy and suggesting a general re-framing of sectoral policies on a regional basis. In this respect, the paper tackles the issue of regional disparities in achieving Europe 2020 Strategy targets. As the Strategy involves different targets, principal component analysis is applied to disentangle Europe 2020 domains and to describe major differences in EU-27 NUTS 2 regional performances. In particular, two components are returned: high-employment inclusive growth and smart growth. Territorial patterns of both components are analysed, by jointly considering some geographical features that may affect them. Both a rural and a spatial effect occur: rural and remote regions show poor performances whilst the presence of spatial autocorrelation may actually lock-in negative outcomes. When considering urban rural divides, also within-regions disparities matter. Results strengthen the idea that Europe 2020, as other sectoral policies, should be translated into a regional setting according to a place-based approach: although requiring large efforts, this represents the only way to fully achieve its own targets.     

WHEN AND HOW DOES COMMUTING TO CITIES INFLUENCE RURAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH?

This paper estimates the influence that rural‐to‐urban commuting has on rural employment growth, and whether the strength and spatial reach of this effect depend on commuters’ levels of education. A main finding is that rural‐to‐urban commuting has a robust positive impact on rural employment growth in services and retail. There is no significant difference in how far these effects reach into rural Sweden for commuters with different levels of education. These results suggest that a viable policy for local employment growth in rural areas with reasonable commuting times to urban centers is to improve the commuting to urban centers.     

Neoliberalism and Suburban Employment: Western Sydney in the 1990s

During the past 15 years metropolitan planning strategies of the NSW state government have done little to address the spatial distribution of either employment or labour market equity within the metropolis. In the fast‐growing outer western suburbs, the government has focused on attracting business investment to increase the stock of local jobs and to improve employment ‘self‐sufficiency’— a dominantly neoliberal policy framework. This paper explores a widening gulf between the reality of outer urban change and this policy framework by considering changes in the location of jobs and in the employment experiences of residents in Greater Western Sydney (GWS). Evidence is drawn from census journey‐to‐work data (1991–2001). While holding a majority of manufacturing jobs in Sydney, GWS also experienced continued growth of jobs in service industries during the 1990s. Yet the relative importance of employment in the city's fast‐growth finance and business services sector still lags well behind that of inner and northern parts of the city. The focus on growing the regional stock of jobs has not addressed problems of labour market access faced by residents of particular localities and the goal of employment self‐sufficiency has not delivered greater equity to outer suburban labour markets. A focus on sufficiency of access to employment for residents of GWS draws attention not only to regional stocks of jobs but also to the provision of social infrastructure and state‐provided services to outer suburban populations as they continue to expand.     

福建省县域经济差异的时空格局演化分析

以人均GDP 作为测度指标,采用传统统计分析与ESDA相结合的方法,从时间、空间以及关联性三个方面对2005-2013 年福建省县域经济差异的时空格局演化进行了分析。研究结果显示：①福建省县域经济的绝对差异波动性增加,相对差异逐年缩小,其中福建省经济差异的最大贡献者是闽东南地区内部差异;②县域经济存在正的空间自相关性,但县域经济集聚性呈波动衰退状态,两级分化现象呈减弱趋势;③较发达县域沿四大交通线路呈“口”字型分布;④欠发达县域在部分省际接壤地区分布较为集中,出现经济落后走廊;⑤县域经济增长对全省区域经济差异的影响表现为收敛;⑥县域经济发展的空间关联效应较强,发展速度相对较快。     

Economic growth and restructuring in Canada's heartland and hinterland: From shift‐share to multifactor partitioning

The geography of the Canadian economy has long been dominated by heartland‐hinterland contrasts, with manufacturing identified as the dominant function of most heartland cities in analyses of the 1961 and 1971 census data. However, the proportion of employment in manufacturing has been declining in the heartland provinces of Ontario and Quebec over the past fifty years and some geographers argue that the heartland‐hinterland dimension of the regional economy is being overridden by city‐regions that are integrated into global networks of production and trade. The heartland‐hinterland trends are examined using multifactor partitioning (MFP), an advanced shift‐share methodology, for the period of 2001–2006. This is the first intercensal period in which Canadian business has faced the full impact of the removal of North American tariff protection and the increased globalization of the Canadian economy. The data covers employment by eighteen industry sectors for the seventy‐three economic regions defined by Statistics Canada. MFP measures the region and industry‐mix effects, which are interpreted as in the traditional shift‐share model (though they are derived more accurately) and, in addition, an interaction effect. The results demonstrate that the broad heartland‐hinterland differences in the distribution of population and employment growth are increasing not decreasing and that the hinterland is in fact falling further behind the heartland in employment growth. However the Calgary‐Edmonton corridor and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia are emerging as a western heartland. The population size of cities does affect their rates of employment growth, but so too does their location: the growth of heartland cities is outpacing those in the hinterland. The Appendix provides the equations for two‐variable multifactor partitioning.     

Gender, space, and the location changes of jobs and people: a spatial simultaneous equations analysis

This article summarizes a spatial econometric analysis of local population and employment growth in the Netherlands, with specific reference to impacts of gender and space. The simultaneous equations model used distinguishes between population- and gender-specific employment groups, and includes autoregressive and cross-regressive spatial lags to detect relations both within and among these groups. Spatial weights matrices reflecting different bands of travel times are used to calculate the spatial lags and to gauge the spatial nature of these relations. The empirical results show that although population–employment interaction is more localized for women's employment, no gender difference exists in the direction of interaction. Employment growth for both men and women is more influenced by population growth than vice versa. The interaction within employment groups is even more important than population growth. Women's, and especially men's, local employment growth mostly benefits from the same employment growth in neighboring locations. Finally, interaction between these groups is practically absent, although men's employment growth may have a negative impact on women's employment growth within small geographic areas. In summary, the results confirm the crucial roles of gender and space, and offer important insights into possible relations within and among subgroups of jobs and people.     

Land Absorption in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Estimates and Projections from Regional Adjustment Models

This article adapts a regional adjustment model to estimate and project the spatial outcome of population and employment growth in U.S. metropolitan areas. The three-equation multiplicative model of population change, employment change, and land absorption is estimated using three-stage least squares to account for endogeneity among the dependent variables and contemporaneous correlation across the system of equations. In addition to the core model, alternative specifications are estimated, imposing the initial conditions of size, land availability, and economic structure. The stability of the solutions is then examined using reduced-form equations estimated via the seemingly unrelated regression equations approach. The results reveal substantive evidence that population and employment growth are jointly determined, of how the two affect the outcome of land development, and, perhaps most importantly, stable and fractionally reasonable estimates at projected equilibrium points. Lastly, the adapted model controlling for the initial condition of land availability is used to project patterns of land consumption at equilibrium in 50 rapid-growth metropolitan areas.     

Spatial Analysis of Employment and Population Density: The Case of the Agglomeration of Dijon 1999

The aim of this paper is to analyze the intraurban spatial distributions of population and employment in the agglomeration of Dijon (regional capital of Burgundy, France). We study whether this agglomeration has followed the general tendency of job decentralization observed in most urban areas or whether it is still characterized by a monocentric pattern. To that purpose, we use a sample of 136 observations at the communal and at the IRIS (infraurban statistical area) levels with 1999 census data and the employment database SIRENE (INSEE). First, we study the spatial pattern of total employment and employment density using exploratory spatial data analysis. Apart from the CBD, few IRIS are found to be statistically significant, a result contrasting with those found using standard methods of subcenter identification with employment cut‐offs. Next, in order to examine the spatial distribution of residential population density, we estimate and compare different specifications: exponential negative, spline‐exponential, and multicentric density functions. Moreover, spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity, and outliers are controlled for by using the appropriate maximum likelihood, generalized method of moments, and Bayesian spatial econometric techniques. Our results highlight again the monocentric character of the agglomeration of Dijon.     

THE IMPACT OF SKILL‐SPECIFIC MIGRATION ON REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DISPARITIES IN GERMANY

Differences in regional unemployment are still pronounced in Germany, especially between eastern and western Germany. Although the skill level seems important for the relationship between regional disparities and labor migration, corresponding empirical evidence is scarce. Applying dynamic panel models, we investigate the impact of labor mobility differentiated by educational attainment of the workers on regional unemployment disparities between 2000 and 2008. The impact of low‐ and medium‐skilled migration is consistent with traditional neoclassical reasoning, suggesting that labor mobility reduces differences in regional unemployment rates. In contrast, the migration of high‐skilled workers tends to reinforce disparities.     

广东省创意阶层集聚的时空演变及其影响因素分析

以广东省21个地级市为例,利用ESDA分析方法和2000-2012年的数据,对广东省创意阶层的空间集聚特征和演变趋势、影响因素进行了初步探索。结果表明:广东省创意阶层的空间分布存在明显差异,主要集中在珠三角地区,东西两翼和粤北山区分布较少,与广东省经济格局较为一致,集聚呈现二元结构;在总体空间格局上,区域创意阶层分布存在显著的空间正相关特征,空间整体差异呈现先缩小后扩大的趋势;各地级市自身与周边地区的相互联系比较微弱,创意阶层高聚集区的辐射和带动作用不明显。从创意阶层空间集聚的影响因素看,不同时间段的显著影响因素存在差异。总体上,科技是持续显著影响广东省创意阶层空间集聚的因素,其次是社会人文因素和城市的工资水平。     

KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS,ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY,AND SKILL INTENSITY OF CHILEAN MANUFACTURING PLANTS*

ABSTRACT Knowledge spillovers are an important source of economic growth. In this study, we identify a mechanism through which knowledge spillovers occur among plants in the Chilean manufacturing industry. A plant‐level production function is estimated with the absorptive‐capacity hypothesis, that is, employment of skilled workers is a key channel through which knowledge is transmitted across plants. Results show that a plant's productivity from spillovers increases with its skill intensity, which is measured by the share of skilled workers in total employment. We also find that plants in a region with a large knowledge stock increase their skill intensity to benefit more from spillovers. Our results suggest that an increase in regional knowledge stock is the most effective policy to improve a plant's productivity. However, policies that encourage a plant to employ high skill‐intensive production also enhance its productivity.     

SPRAWL,BLIGHT, AND THE ROLE OF URBAN CONTAINMENT POLICIES: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. CITIES

U.S. post‐war suburbanization has reshaped the spatial pattern of growth in many metropolitan areas, with population and employment shift toward the suburbs resulting in the urban decay of central cities. This being the case, the adoption of adequate anti‐sprawl policies should lead to a reduction in city blight. Availability of detailed blight measures at the city level enables us to undertake a novel empirical analysis to test this hypothesis. The empirical specification presented here identifies the specific impact of more stringent anti‐sprawl policies adopted at the metro level, proxied by the adoption of urban containment policies, on city blight. Results indicate that the adoption of such policies has effectively contributed to the reduction of downtown deterioration.     

The Effect of Business Support on Employment in Manufacturing: Evidence from the European Union Structural Funds in Germany,Italy and Spain

This study investigates employment growth in the business activities supported by the European Cohesion Policy. We examine cross-industry, cross-regional variations in a sample of fourteen manufacturing industries and seventy European regions (in Germany, Italy and Spain) and take advantage of detailed European Union Structural Funds data at the regional level for the period 2000–2006. We show that business support is positively associated with higher employment growth in industries that are initially smaller and in those with higher growth opportunities. The results suggest that direct support to businesses by the European Cohesion Policy contributes to the growth process of employment in different industries. Because previous estimated effects at the aggregate level may in fact conceal large differences across industries, we conclude that our empirical analysis contributes to the understanding of how Structural Funds can affect industrial and regional development as well as adjustment paths.