TARIFF PROTECTION IN AN OPEN SPATIAL ECONOMY*

Spatial pricing models have been used to illustrate a tariff's asymmetric effects on consumers located at different points in the protected economy, and to demonstrate that the optimum tariff for a small open spatial economy may be positive. In these models, the distribution of households has been taken as uniform and fixed. We extend the spatial model by allowing households to optimally locate and consume variable amounts of land, as well as the domestic- or foreign-produced good. Land consumption, location rents, and the distribution of consumers are endogenous, responding to tariff-induced changes in the delivered prices of the domestic and foreign goods. Within this limited general equilibrium framework, a neoclassical result resurfaces: from the perspective of private consumers, the optimum tariff in a small open economy is zero. The possibility of a positive optimum tariff, however, may remain intact in a more integrated model where domestic profits and tariff revenues are redistributed within the spatial economy.     

国内外农村居民点区位研究评述

随着人类经济社会的发展,居民点的外在特征和空间结构也在不断的演化与变迁,居住地点的选址和布局最能反映出人类活动与地理环境之间的相互影响与作用机制。目前国内外在城市居住区位研究方面已经形成大量研究成果,相比之下,农村居民点相关研究还存在一定滞后。文章从居民点区位影响因素、区位演变、居民点分布和等级结构四方面对国外相关研究进行了评述,梳理了国内农村居民点区位研究的相关内容,在此基础上对存在的问题进行了讨论和总结,并对今后研究内容进行了展望。     

兰州城区制造业空间结构及其影响因素研究

基于2008年企业的相关数据,以兰州城区行政区划中街道为空间单元,通过对兰州市制造业企业的宏观总量空间分布、行业类型分布、企业规模分布的分析,探寻该市内部制造业的空间结构特征及规律,并从影响企业区位选择的因素入手,分析现有制造业空间结构的影响因素。研究表明:无论从宏观总量空间分布、行业类型分布、企业规模分布来看,兰州城区制造业企业空间结构由内到外都呈现明显的圈层分布特征;这种空间分布特征是在历史因素、土地因素、城市规划和政府政策、集聚效应、开发区等多重影响因素和驱动力的共同作用下形成的。     

城市内部不同所有制制造业区位时空演变研究——以无锡为例

制造业发展及其区位演变是中国近30年来城乡空间发展的主要动力,不同所有制制造业区位变迁是解读经济体制改革作用于城乡空间发展机制的重要视角。基于1985、2004、2013年制造业企业数据,运用空间分析技术及计量模型,探讨无锡不同所有制制造业区位演变规律及其体制动因。结果表明:无锡制造业空间从以中心城区为主的"单中心"格局向以郊区为主的"多中心"格局演进,表现出显著的郊区化和空间不均衡特征,其中土地有偿使用的市场力量和各类开发区设立的行政引导是重要驱动机制,而区位通达性因素的影响相对较弱;不同所有制制造业的区位演变呈现出差异化的体制响应特征。本研究对无锡的产业布局优化和城乡规划具有重要参考意义。     

中国城市人口集聚分布——基于空间效应的研究

城市人口集聚分布以及城市带的形成是一个空间现象,空间力量对其形成和演化具有重要影响。本文应用空间计量经济学与趋势面分析相结合方法,以617个县级以上城市1998年和2011年的城镇人口和经纬度坐标数据来研究中国城市人口空间集聚分布与趋势。研究发现,中国城市人口分布与其周围相邻城市的人口分布关系密切,并且其6阶空间自相关效应是最强的;同时地理位置对中国城市人口体系的空间分布和纵向形态形成具有显著影响。在空间自相关和空间位置相关的共同作用下,城市人口规模聚集区已在东部沿海地区形成。     

北京城市空间认知的影响因素分析

城市空间认知影响因素分析与认知空间格局研究具有同等的重要性。论文基于北京城市空间认知调查问卷数据,引入居民属性等16个变量,利用二值Logistic回归方法,提炼出23个认知地点整体以及交通节点、商场、休闲地三种类型地点的认知影响因素。发现:第一,不同类型地点的认知率影响因素存在异同,其中,存在职住变更是最为显著的共性因子。第二,各类地点中的显著影响因子对认知率的作用大小有明显差异,年龄46-55岁变量是23地点认知率的最重要影响因素,交通节点和商场认知率最重要的影响因素为就业内城四区,而就业地与休闲地距离小于等于6km变量对休闲地认知率的影响最大。第三,各类模型中的影响因素类型不同且影响程度有很大差异,故具有不同属性信息组合的居民认知率不同。     

Counterfactual geographies: worlds that might have been

This paper argues for a renewed consideration of counterfactuals within geography. Drawing upon Doreen Massey's emphasis on notions of ‘possibility’, ‘chance’, ‘undecidability’ and ‘happenstance’, we argue for an engagement with approaches in the humanities that have addressed such issues directly. We review previous uses of counterfactual method in historical geography, particularly as related to cliometrics and the ‘new economic history’ of the 1960s, but argue that a recent upsurge of interest in other disciplines indicates alternative ways that ‘what-if’ experiments might work in the sub-discipline. Recent counterfactual work outside of geography has had a notably spatial cast, often thinking through the nature of alternative worlds, or using counterfactual strategies that are explicitly concerned with space as well as temporal causality. We set out possible agendas for counterfactual work in historical geography. These include: consideration of the historical geographies within existing counterfactual writings and analyses; suggestions for distinctive ways that historical geographers might think and write counterfactually, including experiments in geographies of happenstance, and the exploration of more-than-human possibilities; analyses of the geography of and in counterfactual writing; and study of the political, ethical and emotional demands that counterfactuals make. This discussion and framework provides an extended introduction to this special feature on counterfactual geographies.     

Functional Relations in Distribution Channels and Location Patterns of the Dutch Wholesale Sector

Wholesale firms play an important role in the distribution of goods. They stimulate the flow of goods towards the final consumer by means of their intermediate position between the manufacturing sector and the retail sector in the distribution channel. This paper will focus on the question whether there is a link between the position of wholesale businesses in the distribution channel and their spatial choice of location. Can the position of the wholesale sector in the distribution channel be regarded as an influential location factor or not? As such, the location factor to elaborate is the location with regard to the suppliers and buyers of wholesale firms. First, the change of the spatial pattern over the long term is set out by means of a series of maps. Second, an inquiry has been set out in order to obtain an insight to the position of wholesale firms in the distribution channel. The major findings are that the sectors of repair shops, retail, manufacturing industry and building industry have the most business contacts with wholesale firms. Most business contacts are on a national level. The position of the wholesale sector in the distribution channel alone does not explain the choice of location. But the paper shows that the position is closely linked to other factors, such as accessibility, short distances and centrality.     

1978年来长江三角洲经济格局空间演变研究

本文通过ESDA相关分析,以4个时间断面的县域单元为研究对象,描述了1978年以来长江三角洲县域经济格局在空间上的变化状况。总体自相关趋势在不断增加,高低集聚的格局不断加强,热点区域分布的空间结构经历了从"一"字形到"二"字形,再到"Z"字形的演化过程。经济增长空间格局发展的态势在空间分布上表现出更多的随机性和结构的不稳定性,热点区域切换频繁,没有明显的地理集中现象。最后将长江三角洲经济格局演化因素归结为4个方面:历史发展基础、经济区位、交通条件和区域发展政策,历史发展基础、经济区位是区域经济格局演化的内在因素,而交通条件、区域发展政策则是区域经济格局演化的外在推手。     

中国外商投资区位选择的时空格局与影响因素

以中国274个地市为样本,引入空间分析和计量模型等方法,分析外资分布特点及影响因素,结果表明：①中国目前尚不存在大规模外资"逃离"现象,外资利用总量在波动中上升,结构趋于优化。②空间上由集聚集中趋向分散均衡,呈"北进西移"态势,东部高度集中,中西部发展较快。外资高值集聚区逐渐向北推进,低值区向西南收缩;③劳动力成本、市场规模、专业化经济、FDI累积、市场化水平和开放度均对外资有正向作用。其中,传统因素对外资的吸引作用正逐渐下降,FDI累积的作用上升明显,集聚对外资分布作用显著。从不同区域看,集聚经济和FDI累积效应等新经济地理因素在东部外资区位选择中受到更多的关注,而劳动力成本、基础设施、开放水平等传统因素在中西部吸引外资中作用更大。④中国应遵循因地制宜、因时制宜的原则制定差异化的外资政策。     

DARWINIAN WE ARE NOT: COUNTERFACTUALISM AS THE NATURAL COURSE OF HISTORY

This article considers Peter Bowler's recent contribution to the genre of counterfactual history as exemplifying a “restrained” counterfactual framework, one that must downplay the role of contingency in the historical process in order to present what Bowler calls a more “natural course” of historical development. This restrained counterfactual methodology is discussed with reference to analogous debates within evolutionary science about the competing roles of contingency and convergence in the history of life, along with recent work done within the humanities about the more subtle nuances of counterfactual reasoning. Although there is little doubt that Bowler's study will help legitimize the genre of counterfactual history, it is argued that the role of contingency—once thought to be integral to the counterfactual—has been necessarily minimized in order to construct a narrative that is a plausible counterfactual history of science. It is in this way that Bowler's world without Darwin sheds light on our historiographical preconceptions about what makes for a plausible historical narrative.     

The Effect on Attribute Prediction of Location Uncertainty in Spatial Data

A datum is considered spatial if it contains location information. Typically, there is also attribute information, whose distribution depends on its location. Thus, error in location information can lead to error in attribute information, which is reflected ultimately in the inference drawn from the data. We propose a statistical model for incorporating location error into spatial data analysis. We investigate the effect of location error on the spatial lag, the covariance function, and optimal spatial linear prediction (that is, kriging). We show that the form of kriging after adjusting for location error is the same as that of kriging without adjusting for location error. However, location error changes entries in the matrix of explanatory variables, the matrix of co‐variances between the sample sites, and the vector of covariances between the sample sites and the prediction location. We investigate, through simulation, the effect that varying trend, measurement error, location error, range of spatial dependence, sample size, and prediction location have on kriging after and without adjusting for location error. When the location error is large, kriging after adjusting for location error performs markedly better than kriging without adjusting for location error, in terms of both the prediction bias and the mean squared prediction error.     

广州城市公共服务设施供给空间分异研究

转型期以来,政府治理制度的变革及公私部门关系的重构使我国城市公共服务设施供给主体、供给机制逐步多元化,其分布形态也由空间均衡趋向分异。本文以广州为案例,研究结果表明:广州城市公共服务设施分布总体上呈核心-边缘空间格局,区域供给规模差异大且与人口分布不相协调,区际及不同类型设施的空间聚集水平差异显著;传统计划经济条件下城市公共服务设施空间均衡分布模式被市场经济条件下高收入地区指向的集中布局模式所取代,表现出类似西方国家城市公共资源配置的"反比例服务法则"。     

上海都市区制造业就业格局的演化及影响因素

制造业是城市经济的重要组成部分和推动城市空间格局演化的重要驱动力。本文采用上海1996年、2004年、2008年制造业企业分街道就业数据,分析上海都市区制造业的空间格局演化,采用计量模型探究了制造业就业分布的主要影响因素。研究表明,上海都市区制造业就业空间格局已经基本实现了郊区化,并涌现出了稳定的制造业次中心;区位、交通、地价和政策因素对制造业就业格局的形成有着显著作用,而且这些因素的作用存在着显著的行业间差异性。为实现制造业的合理布局和城市空间结构优化,政府应该尊重市场规律和不同产业的特点,为不同产业选址布局提供相应的空间供给和基础设施。     

Examining the effect of occupational structure on social mobility – an investigation of A Black Country village 1851–1901

This article continues research into social mobility in England in the nineteenth century by examining the links with different occupational structures, socio-economic and industry/occupation, for a specific location. This allows an examination of the impact of the characteristics of these structures on occupational and thence on social mobility. Occupational mobility has long been recognised as a major determinant of social mobility and has been the subject of a number of papers, usually to determine how much a specific variable affects the level and type of mobility observed. Rarely do these analyses consider the location’s occupational structure, and its changes, as a determinant of the level of mobility. This paper finds that much of the variability of occupational mobility of a locality is determined by the characteristics of the different industries and occupations in that location. Industries and occupations provide a context within which other factors, such as literacy, operate.     

CENTER POINTS, EQUILIBRIUM POSITIONS, AND THE OBNOXIOUS LOCATION PROBLEM

ABSTRACT. Real variable analysis has een used to great benefit in a variety of classical problems in location theory. In this paper we explore basic complex variable techniques in one formulation of the obnoxious location problem. A general definition of center points is first given and used to formulate several alternate versions of the obnoxious location problem. A logarithmic transformation is then used to demonstrate some equivalences between these families of distinct location problems (defined via center points). A prototype logarithmic potential function which results from this formulation is then investigated, and it is demonstrated that the extremal solutions with this objective reside on the boundary of its domain of definition. An application using zero- and one-dimensional centers is discussed, and a generalization to the spatial obnoxious problem is also briefly examined. We define a zero-dimensional center as a critical point of the logarithmic potential function, and it is shown that these centers are equivalent to the solutions of the Complex Moment Problem.     

Research briefing

Although pharmacies play an important role in providing information and advice on health issues to lower income people in developing countries, the distribution of urban pharmacies is not balanced with respect to population distribution in some of the districts of Istanbul. This situation can severely limit the accessibility of pharmacy services to the people with lower socio‐economic background. A multiple regression analysis is used in order to find out the factors which affect the spatial distribution of pharmacies in Istanbul. The number of pharmacies in the districts considered is taken as the dependent variable and the number of hospital beds, physicians, population, employment, income, number of educated people and distance to the CBD are taken as independent variables. According to the results, the population of the districts and the number of educated people, physicians and hospital beds are the most important factors affecting the location of pharmacies in Istanbul. The other variables are not found significant in affecting the location of pharmacies at the metropolitan level. Suggestions are made for better distribution of pharmacies and for further research.     

ASSESSING WHAT LIES BENEATH THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF A ZOOARCHAEOLOGICAL RECORD: THE USE OF GIS AND SPATIAL CORRELATIONS AT EL MIRÓN CAVE (SPAIN)*

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are being incorporated into archaeology as a technique to improve the understanding of spatial organization and the relationships among finds within specific areas. Although their use as a basic tool in predicting the location of archaeological sites or in assessing the extent of their catchment areas is relatively common, in general, they have less often been applied to the study of the spatial distribution of archaeological remains within individual deposits, and in particular to faunal assemblages. Despite this, they can prove essential to understanding dispersion and grouping patterns within deposits fully, and, together with various correlation analytical techniques, they provide valuable information about the economic organization of settlements and inhabitant lifeways. To demonstrate the potential of this methodology, a zooarchaeological GIS has been prepared for the Middle and Late Magdalenian and Azilian layers in El Mirón Cave (eastern Cantabria, Spain), and the spatial distribution patterns of various attributes of the archaeological record have been analysed. Significant conclusions in terms of type and duration of human occupation have been drawn.     

变革中的西方经济地理学:制度、文化、关系与尺度转向

1980年代以来,在社会科学日益走向多元化和"后现代主义"的背景下,西方经济地理学开始了一个前所未有的急剧变动时期,无论是研究的主要论题,还是研究的内容、理论和方法以及表述的方式与风格,均经历并正在经历深刻的变革。与上一世纪50-60年代的"计量和理论革命"和70- 80年代的"马克思主义转向"相比,这次变革不仅发生在方法论和认识论层面,而且许多也发生在本体论层面,它使西方经济地理学的视角走向了高度的多样化和复杂化。本文在分析这次变革的起点:马克思主义转向及其批判的基础上,从制度转向、文化转向、关系转向、尺度转向4个相互交织的方面,系统勾勒了西方经济地理学理论视角变动的主线,讨论了这些视角变动的方向、成因、意义和局限性。     

互联网技术应用对零售业空间组织影响研究进展

互联网技术应用对零售业空间组织的影响已成为当今学术界研究热点。本文利用文献资料法和对比分析法,梳理了国内外互联网技术应用对零售业空间组织结构、零售企业区位选择与布局、市场空间等方面的影响研究,并提出了未来人文地理学须进一步强化的研究内容。结果表明：20世纪90年代中期以来,互联网技术应用对零售业空间组织影响的研究成果日益丰富,且涉及到经济地理学和商业学等学科,研究方法主要以定性为主,且定量研究日益增多,但对互联网技术应用对传统零售业区位选择和销售腹地的影响、中小网络零售企业空间组织、运输距离对网络零售企业销售空间影响以及出口跨境网络零售企业销售空间格局等方面研究还需完善,未来研究应注重吸收其他学科理论和方法,强化实证研究结论的科学性。