A Flexible Mathematical Programming Model to Estimate Interregional Input–Output Accounts*

Abstract. This study implements and tests a mathematical programming model to estimate interregional, interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions based on an interregional accounting framework and initial information of interregional shipments. A national input–output (IO) table, regional data on gross output, value‐added, exports, imports, and final demand at sector level are used as inputs to generate an interregional IO account that reconciles regional economic statistics and interregional transaction data. The model is tested using data from a multiregional global IO database and shows remarkable capacity to discover true interregional trade patterns from highly distorted initial estimates.     

Productive Relations in the Northeast and the Rest‐of‐Brazil Regions in 1995: Decomposition and Synergy in Input‐Output Systems

Using a set of interregional input‐output tables built by Guilhoto (1998) for 1995 for two Brazilian regions (Northeast and rest of the economy), the methodology developed by Sonis, Hewings, and Miyazawa (1997) is applied in the construction of a series of linkages such that it is possible to examine, through the nature of the internal and external interdependencies, the structure of trading relationships between the two regions. The methodology uses a partitioned input‐output system and exploits techniques that produce left and right matrix multipliers of the Leontief Inverse. This procedure facilitates the classification of the types of synergetic interactions within a preset pairwise hierarchy of economic linkages subsystems. In general, the results show that the Northeast region has a greater dependence on the rest of the economy region than the rest of the economy has on the Northeast region, and at the same time the rest of the economy region seems to be more developed as it presents a more complex productive structure than the Northeast region.     

区域经济联系测度方法述评

区域研究是地理学的核心之一。区域经济联系测度是区域研究的焦点。在系统总结区域经济联系测度的理论与方法的基础上,本文认为区域经济联系测度一般依循尺度确定-区域划分-区域联系测度的路径;测度区域经济联系的主要指标有可达性、经济影响范围、经济联系强度、经济隶属度等。城市在区域网络中的作用、位置是区域经济联系测度的重点。通过区域经济联系强度的测度,有助于区域和城市发展定位,并指导规划。近年来城市化、信息化、全球化的快速发展对区域经济联系的测度提出了新的挑战,需要综合不同的方法或发展新方法来应对。     

Salt and Fish Processing in the Ancient Mediterranean: A Brief Survey

The demand for salt generated by the dietary and domestic needs of most Greek city-states could be usually fulfilled by local resources given the general abundance of salt along the coasts of the ancient Mediterranean. The extremely rare references to interregional salt trade in literary and documentary sources corroborate this idea. As a bulky commodity with little economic value, salt was too expensive to be transported over long distances and was more conveniently obtainable from local resources. However, the situation was different when large-scale fish processing centers entered into the equation. The production and widespread distribution of processed fish required a steady supply of both fish and salt. Salt only was able to transform fish—which is otherwise extremely perishable—into a durable commodity, easy to store and trade. The strategic importance that salt assumed at these centers transformed its economic significance and made interregional trade both convenient and profitable. Also, it was through the medium of processed fish that the surplus of salt production available in certain regions was redistributed across the Mediterranean and came to play an important, albeit indirect, role in interregional trade.     

Bank Statistics as a Source of Data for the Geography of Territorial-Economic Links

Bank statistics, covering interregional payments are described as a useful tool in the study of interregional commodity traffic because, unlike freight tonnage statistics, the payment data reflect also low-tonnage, high-value goods, which often determine the economic specialization of a region.     

PREDICTION OF TRANSPORT-ECONOMIC LINKAGES IN THE USSR

Possible changes in production patterns of basic Soviet industries and the resulting interregional linkages and freight flows are projected over the next 25 to 30 years. Interregional energy flows are expected to be limited largely to oil and gas as well as power transmission at extra high voltages. Steam-coal movements will be restricted to the limits of particular economic regions, and coking-coal movements will be reduced as a result of technological changes in the iron and steel industry (electric steels, direct conversion, peat-based metallurgy). In general, the share of semifinished and finished goods is expected to increase and that of raw materials and fuels to decline in interregional hauls. The likely new flow patterns are examined for the Soviet Union's principal transport corridors.     

Large Projects in Hinterland Regions: A Dynamic Multiregional Input-Output Model for Assessing the Economic Impacts

Interregional spillovers and the expansion of capacity in hinterland sectors represent two types of economic impact associated with large capital projects in hinterland regions. The simultaneous treatment of these within an input-output (I-O) framework is the subject of this paper. A dynamic multiregional I-O (DMRIO) model is derived and applied to a scenario of oil development in Canada's Northwest Territories (NWT). A comparision of output profiles generated by the DMRIO model and a static MRIO model shows that the DMRIO formulation has merit. Specifically, in years where capacity adjustments are called for in the hinterland region, the static MRIO model is unable to capture the intraregional and interregional economic implications of this activity. In a year of particularly large-capacity shortfalls in several NWT sectors a static MRIO model underestimates the Canada-wide total impact of the project by more than one billion 1984 dollars.     

A LONG RUN ECONOMIC EFFECT ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION FACILITY PLANS—REGIONAL AND NATIONAL

Initially we explained the main part of our model which enabled us to estimate and compare the long run and global economic effects of alternative transportation facility plans. Usually the short run effects of this kind of regional economic impact have been analyzed by input-output models, and the long run effects by econometric models. However, in this model, the input-output model and the econometric model were combined so as to enable us to analyze the global and long run economic effects. The interregional trade pattern coefficients and input coefficients change endogenously in each year in this model. It has previously been assumed that the fixedness of interregional trade pattern coefficients and input coefficients are the weakest points in applying the interregional input-output model for long run studies. In our model, on the contrary, variation of these coefficients has central importance. We then showed the results which were obtained from applying this model to a comparison of the long run economic effects of alternative bridge construction plans over the Japan Inland Sea. The results obtained from this demonstrative calculation are reasonable. Thus, we think, this model has sufficient applicability to the comparison of economic effects of alternative plans for nationwide transportation facility improvement. However, the variations of production cost differentials between regions are given exogenously in this model. To make them endogenous, agglomeration economies should be considered more precisely. In that case, the applicability and the precision of this model could be improved.     

The State of the Art in Modeling Migration in LDCS: A Comment

Early research on migration in LDCs, initially motivated by labor market postulates offered by Harris and Todaro, built upon general equilibrium models of interregional trade. In contrast, recent research on migration (such as Brueckner and Kim in this issue) builds upon a partial equilibrium analysis that is based on an urban land model. There are subtle differences between these models that complicate intermodel comparisons. The current paper, motivated by this complexity, has three purposes: (1) a mathematical explication of the state of the art in migration modeling, (2) a provision of further insights into the Todaro paradox, and (3) a suggestion for future research predicated on melding the urban land and interregional literatures.     

Regional Occupational Employment Projections: Modeling Supply Constraints in the Direct‐Requirements Approach*

Detailed industry‐occupation employment forecasts are an important class of regional labor market information produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In theory, the forecasts should improve the national, interregional, and intertemporal matching efficiency of labor markets. But the efficiency argument is dependent on the quality of the forecasts. The methodology used to produce the projections is still fundamentally a demand‐requirements approach that implicitly assumes that labor supply is infinitely elastic for every occupation. This paper examines the validity of that assumption and evaluates a demographically based labor supply module as an adjunct to the current methodology.     

CANADA DIVIDED: THE OPTIMAL DIVISION OF AN ECONOMY INTO REGIONS

ABSTRACT We develop an objective methodology for forming large regions (called macroregions) from small regions (microregions). We observe that the aggregation of microregions in an interregional input-output model causes aggregation error in the model. Our optimal regions are those that cause aggregation error to be minimized. We apply our methodology to Canada, and we compare our optimal regions for Canada to those of Statistics Canada and to those obtained using the well-known heuristic of Kossov. Statistics Canada's regions as well as those produced using Kossov's technique are characterized by substantially greater aggregation error than are those produced with our methodology.     

GLOBALIZING KNOWLEDGE: HOW TECHNOLOGICAL OPENNESS AFFECTS OUTPUT,SPATIAL INEQUALITY,AND WELFARE LEVELS

Using an analytically solvable model, we study how the spatial distribution of economic activities and the ensuing welfare levels are affected by pecuniary externalities, depending on transportation costs, and localized technological externalities, due to the cost saving effect of intra‐ and interregional knowledge spillovers. Under the assumption of capital mobility and labor immobility, we show that increasing interregional knowledge spillovers, i.e., promoting technological openness, favors a smoother transition between different levels of firms concentration, makes trade globalization less likely to generate catastrophic and irreversible agglomeration, and ultimately leads to a less uneven distribution of welfare.     

Regional Inequality of Industrial Output in China, 1952 to 1990

This paper examines regional inequality of industrial output in China from 1952 to 1990. This study reveals that regional inequality was widespread when socialist China was established in 1949. It was reduced in the 1950s as a result of the efforts to develop the interior through the implementation of the First Five Year Plan (1953–57). After that, regional inequality persisted for one-and-a-half decades due mainly to the poor economic returns of the defence-oriented "Third Front" programme, decentralization, the reorientation of development policies, and the incidence of disruptive political events. Since the launch of economic reforms in 1978, interregional inequality among the eastern, central and western regions has gradually increased. However, interprovincial inequality decreased. The relative decline of the traditionally rich provinces (three municipalities and the northeastern industrial bases) has contributed to the decline of interprovincial inequality. Meanwhile, favourable state policy, local initiatives and foreign investment and trade have stimulated the growth of the coastal provinces of Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang and Fujian, leading to more rapid coastal development and the increase of interregional inequality. The emerging new map of regional development is important to the understanding of regional inequality in post-Mao China.     

Volcanic Glass and Iron Nails: Networks of Exchange and Material Entanglements at Late Prehispanic and Early Colonial Achiutla,Oaxaca, Mexico

In this paper, I examine how indigenous residents of the community of Achiutla—located in the Mixtec region of Oaxaca, Mexico—utilized long-distance trade routes between central Mexico and the Pacific coast, spanning the Postclassic (900–1521 CE) and Early Colonial (1522–1650 CE) periods. The maintenance of prehispanic interregional trade connections by native peoples allowed them to both continue traditional industries like those involving obsidian, while also facilitating their adoption of new types of material culture introduced from Europe. Over the long term, however, I suggest that entanglements in these economic networks had unintended consequences, which possibly included the demise of the prehispanic obsidian industry.     

METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, 1966–1982

This paper discusses broad population movements within and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions in Canada during the recent past. It is based on an annual series of aggregate migration at the metropolitan level. Three complementary approaches are used in order to distill information from this vast array of interregional flows. The first is based on net migration. The second, disequilibrium analysis, is based on the difference between the observed population shares of regions and a set of calculated steady-state population shares which would result if the currently observed set of interregional migration rates remained constant. Both approaches indicate short-term effects of migration on the evolving pattern of regional growth and decline. The third approach, based on aggregate interregional flows, allows one to observe some changes in migration behaviour which are not made evident by the first two approaches.     

Regional embeddedness,relatedness and inter-regional linkages among less developed regions in Central Europe

This paper aims at a comprehension of existing intra-/inter-regional production flows in a dynamically transforming, export-oriented economy in Central Europe. Drawing on evolutionary economic geography combined with input–output approaches, we have assessed the sectoral compositions and relationships between regions from a buyer-supplier interactions perspective. Inspired by contemporary literature we applied concepts of regional embeddedness, relatedness and vertically related variety. Conceptually we argue that the degree of embeddedness of regions is differentiated and spatially non-random. The differences will depend to a large extent on the economic characteristics and on the ability of key actors and institutions in these regions to respond actively to changing opportunities and threats. Empirically we have found: that economically more developed regions are relatively more embedded in terms of production flows and have greater sectoral variety, whereas regions with high export-dependence are economically backward, and have higher concentration of industry and negative associations with innovation activity and overall innovation potential. The intensity of interregional production flows increases as the regional economies vary more from each other, but beyond a certain level of structural difference the rate of mutual flows decreases; and that the intensity of interregional relations depends on the relatedness of the economic bases.     

长江三角洲技术扩散规律及其对策初探

技术扩散已经成为决定区域高新技术产业乃至区域经济可持续发展的重要因素,从时间尺度上看,区域技术扩散速度呈现"S"型分布。本文论述了我国经济技术较为发达的长江三角洲地区的技术扩散历程、态势、不同等级的技术扩散中心,在此基础上,提出了提高认识、建立区域技术扩散体系,发挥企业主体作用等促进技术扩散的对策建议。     

Regional Policy and the 'Regionalization' of University-Industry Links: A View from the English Regions

As several senior figures in UK Government have recently professed to want to promote the knowledge-driven economy across the nation, discussion of university-industry ties in less-favoured regions is particularly salient. This account documents how UK central government efforts to encourage greater university-industry links have increasingly taken on a regional dimension but then stresses that these efforts do not constitute a 'regional policy' (in the traditional sense of measures that seek to reduce interregional economic disparities). This activity is then set within the context of overall Government and European Union (EU) funding to universities which is also at odds with stated government aims of lessening regional economic disparities. The article goes on to highlight how mainstream regional policy, particularly that of the European Commission, has seen considerable support for university-industry activity in the regions but has faced an uncertain future due largely to the spectre of fund-draining EU expansion. The article concludes by asking what policies might be pursued for university-industry links to be increased in weaker regions. The underlying aim of the article is to contribute towards raising the profile of universities in debates about reducing interregional economic disparities (that must, in turn, be much higher on the public policy agenda).     

A LINEAR PROGRAMMING APPROACH TO SOLVING INFEASIBLE RAS PROBLEMS

ABSTRACT The RAS procedure is widely used to update national and regional input-output tables and international trade tables and to construct regional tables from national ones. Special problems, however, have been encountered when the procedure is used to adjust interregional trade tables. In this paper, the special properties of interregional trade tables that increase the likelihood of nonconvergence of the RAS procedure are discussed, and two linear programming methods of solving infeasible RAS problems are provided. First, a closed linear programming approach, which enables exogenous information to override the purely mechanical solution of infeasible RAS problems, is presented. Finally, the open linear programming approach is applied successfully to adjust U.S. interregional trade data that had previously failed to converge using the RAS procedure.     

Determination of an Optimal Location for an Iron and Steel Plant Based on Iron Ore of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly

A locational study of the Iron-Steel Design Institute is criticized on the ground that it selected potential plant sites intuitively and then examined them in terms of proximity to iron ore, water availability and minimal transport requirements. An alternative methodology is proposed. The general region for the new plant is first established on the bases of the interregional balance of iron and steel products. The Central European region is found to have a deficit in the entire product range. A more specific location is then derived by calculating potential transport costs with respect to both markets and sources of raw materials (iron ore, coke). The Rzhev area of Kalinin Oblast is found to be optimal in terms of transport costs alone. But when water and, particularly, labor resources are considered, preference shifts in favor of a plant location in the Gor'kiy-Kostroma area.