BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING IN THE CONTEXT OF SPATIAL HEDONIC PRICING: AN APPLICATION TO FARMLAND VALUES

ABSTRACT Specification uncertainty arises in spatial hedonic pricing models because economic theory provides no guide in choosing the spatial weighting matrix and explanatory variables. Our objective in this paper is to investigate whether we can resolve uncertainty in the application of a spatial hedonic pricing model. We employ Bayesian Model Averaging in combination with Markov Chain, Monte Carlo Model Composition. The proposed methodology provides inclusion probabilities for explanatory variables and weighting matrices. These probabilities provide a clear indication of which explanatory variables and weighting matrices are most relevant, but they are case specific.     

SOMETIMES CLOSE IS GOOD ENOUGH: THE VALUE OF NEARBY ENVIRONMENTAL AMENITIES*

ABSTRACT An extensive empirical literature exists, showing that variations in region‐specific amenities can account for persistent differences in real wages across regions. However, this literature has considered only amenities in the same location as the household. This paper argues that environmental amenities at some distance from but accessible to urban areas may lead to negative compensating wage differentials. We use a general equilibrium framework and data from the 1995 Current Population Survey to calculate implicit amenity prices based on measures of distance to environmental amenities. Our results suggest that amenities outside the metropolitan area do generate compensating wage differentials, as workers are willing to accept lower wages to live in accessible proximity to “nice” places. This implies that these places provide a positive externality to those communities that find them accessible. The estimated effects are quantitatively important, suggesting that these externalities should be taken into account in policy making.     

SPATIAL MULTIPLIERS IN HEDONIC ANALYSIS: A COMMENT ON “SPATIAL HEDONIC MODELS OF AIRPORT NOISE,PROXIMITY, AND HOUSING PRICES”*

ABSTRACT This note draws upon the spatial‐hedonic analysis of Cohen and Coughlin to clarify the role of spatial multipliers in regression specification and benefits measurement, and to demonstrate the appropriate calculation of these benefits from dummy‐variable coefficients in semi‐logarithmic spatial‐lag models.     

MEASURING THE IMPACT OF SEA‐LEVEL RISE ON COASTAL REAL ESTATE: A HEDONIC PROPERTY MODEL APPROACH*

ABSTRACT This study estimates the impact of sea‐level rise on coastal real estate in North Carolina using a unique integration of geospatial and hedonic property data. With rates of sea‐level rise approximately double the global average, North Carolina has one of the most vulnerable coastlines in the United States. A range of modest sea‐level rise scenarios based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report projections (2007) are considered for four counties of North Carolina—New Hanover, Dare, Carteret, and Bertie—which represent a cross‐section of the state's coastline in geographical distribution and economic development. High‐resolution topographic LIDAR (light detection and ranging) data are used to provide accurate inundation maps for the properties that will be at risk under six different sea‐level rise scenarios. A simulation approach based on spatial hedonic models is used to provide consistent estimates of the property value losses. Considering just four coastal counties in North Carolina, the value of residential property loss without discounting in 2030 (2080) is estimated to be about $179 ($526) million for the mid‐range sea‐level rise scenarios. Low‐lying and heavily developed areas in the northern coastline are comparatively more vulnerable to the effect of sea‐level rise than the other areas.     

租购同权”政策对学区房溢价的影响研究——基于空间特征价格模型的广州实证

在公共服务对住房市场的影响研究领域，学校质量的资本化效应一直是重要话题。本文借鉴边界固定效应思路，使用广州市2016和2019年136所重点小学周边学区房与相邻非学区房的配对面板数据，利用空间特征价格模型定量测度了不同质量等级教育资源的资本化效应，使用双重差分模型检验了“租购同权”政策对重点小学学区房房价和租金溢价的影响。研究结果表明：①广州市教育质量已部分资本化于住房价格和租金之中，且教育资源越优质，资本化程度越高。②“租购同权”政策的实施，并未带来学区房房价和租金溢价的显著变化。③“租购同权”政策对不同质量等级的重点小学学区房房价影响存在异质性，政策实施后省级重点小学的学区房溢价上升，区级重点小学的学区房溢价下降。④“租购同权”政策对于不同区域重点小学学区房房价和租金溢价的影响无显著差异。本文的研究结论可以为制定教育资源供给与配置的均衡化和公平性政策提供参考。     

THE COMPARATIVE STATIC RESPONSE OF RENTAL HOUSING TO A PRICE CHANGE: INFLATION AND GOVERNMENT POLICY*

ABSTRACT. A two period consumer choice model is presented in which housing is treated as a quality differentiated good. The short-run comparative static response of rental housing to a price change is examined via an example, an exogenous increase in the inflation rate. Two stylized facts are alternately used; interest income is taxed, and interest rate ceilings are imposed on small savings deposits. The partial equilibrium distributional impact of inflation, in the context of rental housing markets, is also discussed.     

TOWARDS UNIFICATION OF THE SOCIO‐ECOLOGICAL SCIENCES: THE VALUE OF COUPLED MODELS

The major environmental problems of the twenty‐first century, including climate change, water scarcity, pollution and resource exhaustion, represent a new category of crisis and highlight the desperate need for an integrated science of socio‐ecological phenomena. To help establish the foundations of such a science, we explore three traditions of mathematical theory: the Lotka–Volterra interactions of ecological theory, niche construction models of population genetics, and theory from the gene–culture coevolution tradition. We review the theoretical tools of each of these traditions in explaining cultural articulation with the environment. Although the theoretical core of the science we propose does not exist, cultural evolutionary theory supplies useful tools to analyse endogenous culture, cultural dynamics, and deeply rooted behavioural links to the environment. We also present a coupled model for demonstration, and suggest that coupled socio‐ecological models can provide a formal theory to help address the emergent socio‐ecological problems of the future.     

ON THE STABILITY OF HOUSING SECTOR INTERACTION: EVIDENCE FROM 42 METROPOLITAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. Residential vacancy chain models based on White's (1971) application of Markov chain theory are used to simulate flows of housing vacancies through a set of interdependent housing market sectors. Measures of housing sector interaction are derived from such models. Our purpose here is to address the issue of time stationarity raised by their use. U.S. census data are available to calibrate such models at two, and sometimes three, points in time. Data from 42 different SMSAs are used to generate 56 cross-temporal comparisons with interobservation periods ranging from three to eight years. Stability of interaction is addressed from two perspectives–the sectoral perspective and the areawide perspective. Results are mixed and depend upon which measure of interaction is used, which perspective is addressed, and the duration of the interobservation period. However, within limits, findings support continued use of vacancy chain models.     

THE APPLICATION OF TIME‐OF‐FLIGHT SECONDARY ION MASS SPECTROMETRY (ToF‐SIMS) TO THE CHARACTERIZATION OF OPAQUE ANCIENT GLASSES*

Time‐of‐flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF‐SIMS) has been used, for the first time, for the characterization of opaque ancient glasses. Isotope‐specific chemical imaging with sub‐micron resolution enabled the separate analysis of opacifiying inclusions and the surrounding glass matrix. Phase identification has been demonstrated and quantification of the matrix composition has been investigated by use of Corning Glass Standard B as a model. Trace element detection limits are typically in the range 0.5–5.0 ppm atomic—in favourable cases down to 0.01 ppm. For the analysis of inclusions in particular, this has the potential to provide new information of use in establishing provenance and trade routes by ‘fingerprinting’ as well as the investigation of manufacturing techniques, as demonstrated by comparisons between glasses and with EDX data from the same samples.     

ARCHAEOMETALLURGICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF HELLENISTIC METAL OBJECTS: THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE BRONZE OBJECTS FROM RISHON LE‐ZION (ISRAEL)*

An archaeometallurgical analysis is presented of 14 bronze artefacts retrieved from an Early Hellenistic–period farmstead in controlled archaeological excavations at Rishon Le‐Zion, Israel, and dated to the first quarter of the third century bce according to coins and pottery vessels. The bronze assemblage includes a needle, pins, spatulas and fibulas. The aims of the research are to determine the composition, microstructure and manufacturing process of these artefacts, and to discover their place of production. This will provide a better understanding of Hellenistic technological abilities and material culture. The examination included optical microscopy, microhardness, SEM including EDS, and XRD. The results show that the collection consists of Cu–Sn binary alloys, with evidence for a controlled alloying process and the absence of recycling. Furthermore, the microstructure of the objects indicates that all artefacts were produced by a cold‐working process. Moreover, the manufacturing process of the rectangular cross‐section fibulas included sophisticated joining techniques of copper and iron.     

THE APPLICATION OF A PORTABLE X‐RAY FLUORESCENCE SPECTROMETER TO THE ON‐SITE ANALYSIS OF GLASS VESSEL FRAGMENTS FROM SOUTHERN THAILAND*

Ancient glass vessel fragments belonging to the seventh to ninth centuries ad , from the Ko Kho Khao, Laem Pho and Khuan Lukpad sites in southern Thailand, were studied. The glass vessel fragment samples are a collection belonging to the Department of Archaeology, the 15th Regional Office of Fine Arts of Thailand. The chemical compositions of the glasses were analysed using a modified portable energy‐dispersive X‐ray fluorescence spectrometer (OURSTEX 100FA‐II) by the introduction of a MOXTEK^® AP3.3 polymer window (5 mm²?) to the KETEK silicon drift detector for the measurement of light elements. The non‐destructive analysis was performed at the National Museum, Phuket, in Thailand. It is shown that the glass chemical compositions belong to mineral and plant‐ash based soda–lime–silicate glass. The origins of the glass artefacts are discussed in terms of raw materials and glass decoration, and compared with previously reported similar typological glasses from sites in the port city of Rāya and the Monastery of Wadi al‐Tur in Egypt.     

THE ANALYSIS OF DYESTUFFS FROM FIRST‐ TO SECOND‐CENTURY TEXTILE ARTEFACTS FOUND IN THE MARTRES‐DE‐VEYRE (FRANCE) EXCAVATIONS*

A series of Gallo‐Roman clothes and miscellaneous textile fragments from the first and second centuries from the Martres‐de‐Veyre necropolis (Puy‐de‐Dôme, France) was investigated. The objects studied were excavated between 1851 and 1923, during successive rounds of archaeological work. Since that time, they have been conserved in the Barguin Museum at Clermont‐Ferrand. The target of our research was dye identification, as it gives very interesting and useful information regarding the ancient technology. This approach has until now not been considered to be relevant and, unfortunately, is not systematic. The analysis was carried out by high‐performance liquid chromatography with photodiode array detection (HPLC–PDA). The small samples (threads up to 0.6 mg, less than 1 cm long) of coloured textile fibres were submitted to this technique. In one case, X‐ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis was applied. According to the analysis, the dyeing sources proposed are the Rubiaceae family for red, a luteolin ‘base’ for yellow, ellagitannins for brown and indigo for blue colours. Several samples did not seem to contain any dye. We point out possible factors for the partial dye source determination: instrumental limits, sample size, low dyestuff content in analysed samples and the dyes’ decomposition during ageing. Some improvements of dye analysis in archaeological samples by separation techniques based on recent analytical instrumentation and combined approaches are proposed.