New powers in the club: the challenges of global trade governance

No good deed goes unpunished: the WTO's timely response to accommodate the new powers—Brazil, India and China—at the heart of its decision‐making has produced new inefficiencies, has heightened its proclivity to deadlock, and has exacerbated disengagement and disillusionment among all its stakeholders. Particularly in the context of a major economic crisis, a reliable international institution is necessary to ensure the continued provision of freer trade—well‐recognized as the route to recovery. With the WTO's recent record to provide these necessary public goods under doubt, where do the solutions lie? This article discusses the changing role of the new powers in the WTO, and further analyses the opportunities and challenges that these developments generate. The concluding section examines possible routes to reform. While very little can, or indeed should, be done to alter the balance of power itself, it is argued that appropriate institutional reform can help the multilateral trading system retain the advances it has made on grounds of fairness and further address the concerns of efficiency that are central to the crisis that it faces today.     

Narratives of climate change: introduction

This paper introduces a special feature on narratives of climate change, containing papers by Richard Hamblyn, Sverker Sörlin, Michael Bravo and Diana Liverman. The feature reflects the rising cultural profile of climate change in the public sphere, as represented, for example, by Al Gore's documentary film, An Inconvenient Truth, and art exhibitions devoted to the subject.     

Hereditary emblems: Material culture in the context of social change

Emblematic artifacts, which signify personal or social identity, are potentially valuable sources of information about social organization. To date, however, there has been little comparative study of the social contexts that give rise to use of different kinds of emblems, nor of the ways in which the social significance of emblematic artifacts may change over time. This paper is specifically concerned with the emergence and changing use of hereditary emblems in stratified societies. The histories of lineage devices in western Europe and Japan exhibit a number of similarities which suggest that, in complex societies, hereditary emblems are likely to appear in the presence of unstable systems of social rank. Once introduced, such emblems may acquire additional, nonhereditary, significance without undergoing noticeable iconographic change. The cases examined here suggest a series of general propositions about evolutionary relationships between hereditary emblem use and socioeconomic factors. Although we currently lack a well-developed methodology for identifying hereditary emblems archaeologically, it is clear that the key to their identification lies not in stylistic analysis, but rather in their contexts of use and patterns of association with other items of material culture. Hypotheses derived from consideration of the evolution of lineage emblems in western Europe and Japan are applied to the interpretation of shield decorations of the Archaic and Classical periods in Attic Greece.     

The archaeology of climate change in the Caribbean

This paper emerges from an attempt to more actively integrate archaeology with ongoing geographical and environmental discussions of human responses to the effects of climate change in the Caribbean. If archaeology is to contribute to the mitigation strategies currently being developed, then robust interpretations are necessary that can be practically integrated with inter-disciplinary action. This paper discusses the methods needed to provide the high-resolution data and interpretations required using archaeological and palaeoenvironmental research from a case study area in northern Cuba. Using data collected from an ongoing collaborative archaeological research project with the Cuban Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment, we evaluate whether it is possible to make useful interpretations of human response to past changes in sea-level, precipitation and hurricane activity. Specifically, the effects of these activities on the changing nature of settlement locations, food procurement strategies and household architecture among pre-Columbian communities are evaluated. Indigenous mitigation strategies are identified and used to inform modern day preparation for the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean.     

Marital instability in the context of dramatic societal change: the case of Kyrgyzstan

ABSTRACT

How do marriages fare during times of dramatic social, political and economic transition? Transitional societies offer a unique context for studying marital instability as they are often buffeted by countervailing forces of modernisation and re-traditionalisation, in addition to socio-economic and political changes. Using detailed and rich data from Kyrgyzstan, the study investigates trends over time in marital instability in response to societal upheavals and gradual secular transformations; ethnic group-specific responses in marital instability; and the role of changing gender regimes in marital instability. The findings reveal an increase in the rate of marital dissolution over time. However, ethnic group-specific differentials remained significant, mirroring the historically shaped relative positioning of the groups in the process of demographic change. The results also highlight gender differentials in the influence of education and employment on marital instability. The findings are discussed within the broader framework of demographic and social changes in transitional Central Asia.     

The whistleblower and the canary: rhetorical constructions of climate change

This paper is concerned with the historical dimension of the current debates on climate change, and argues that the history of the understanding of climate change has itself become part of the rhetorical account. Key historic moments of disclosure and revelation have become central to the ways in which climate change is presented as a persuasive narrative today. This paper takes a discursive approach to exploring the background of these signal moments in climate change history, and aims to show how they have helped to shape the terms of the current debate.     

Earthworks: The geopolitical visions of climate change cartoons

This paper asks how climate change cartoons work to communicate geopolitical visions of time, space and power. I make the argument that visuality is integral to climate change communication in ways that are frequently paradoxical. Dominant visual forms of evidence and iconic images help to make climate change real while simultaneously impeding full understanding of the debates and issues around climate change. In this context, at a time when visuality and climate change discourse have become co-constitutive, the paper explores the capacity of political cartoons to effectively represent the geopolitics of climate change. The empirical focus is the data set of cartoons submitted in 2008 to an international political cartoon competition called Earthworks. The entries collectively represent different geopolitical visions of climate change. They also suggest a critical role for cartoons in climate change communication – not as purveyors of visual evidence of climate change but as effective forms of visual commentary on the relations of power and knowledge within which climate change communication and debates are located.     

Reimagining blockchain in a pluriversal world: Digital land governance in the Global South and the metaverse

Blockchain technologies are increasingly live-tested in experiments aimed at improving governance in a growing range of activities. A key question often lost amongst these efforts is whether such projects redistribute wealth and power, and, if so, in which ways. Examining the case of blockchain-based land governance, this contribution explores the tensions between ambitious visions and their actual scales of implementation around the redistributional promises of distributed ledger technologies. Bringing together the concepts of ‘imaginaries’ and ‘infrastructures’, we analyse land governance blockchainization emerging in the Global South and the metaverse. Identifying a contrast between imaginaries ‘scaling up’ redistributive promises yet tending to materialize in ‘scaled-down’ forms, we argue for more sustained attention to pluriversal perspectives that foreground local concerns and diverse voices.     

The economic geography of the impacts of climate change

Our ability to understand the geographical dispersion of theimpacts of climate change has not yet progressed to the pointof being able to quantify costs and benefits distributed acrossglobe along one or more climate scenarios in any meaningfulway. We respond to this chaotic state of affairs by offeringa brief introduction to the potential impacts of a changingclimate along five geographically dispersed portraits of howthe future climate might evolve and by presenting a modern approachto contemplating vulnerability to climate impacts that has beendesigned explicitly to reflect geographic diversity and uncertainty.Three case studies are offered to provide direct evidence ofthe potential value of adaptation in reducing the cost of climateimpacts, the versatility of thinking about the determinantsof adaptive capacity for specific regions or sectors, and thefeasibility of exploring both across a wide range of ‘not-implausible’climate and socio-economic scenarios. Three overarching themesemerge: adaptation matters, geographic diversity is critical,and enormous uncertainty must be recognized and accommodated.     

Conventions of climate change: constructions of danger and the dispossession of the atmosphere

Climate change has emerged as one of the key issues of the early years of the twenty-first century, bringing together concerns about human relations to nature, the responsibility of rich nations to poorer, the links from local activities to global conditions, and the obligations of present to future generations. This paper focuses on three key ‘narratives’ that are enshrined in international climate policy – asserting that ‘dangerous climate change’ is to be avoided; that the responsibility for climate change is common but differentiated; and that the market (in the form of carbon trading) is the best way to reduce the danger. The goal of the paper is to analyse the origins of these narratives, the power relations they reflect and promote, and some of the concepts and images used to support them, including those of climate determinism, climate stabilisation, ‘burning embers’, ‘tipping points’, Global Warming Potentials, targets and timetables, and carbon credits. I argue that by choosing the market solution of trading carbon we have created a new and surreal commodity, unfairly allocated pollution rights to nation states based on 1990 emission levels, and established a new set north–south relations and carbon transactions in the name of sustainable development.     

Scientists and the media: the struggle for legitimacy in climate change and conservation science

Abstract

Despite the uncertainties associated with forecasts of the possible negative effects of climate change on natural environments, such research is often widely reported in the news media. Here we review the presentation in the UK news media and on the internet of an academic study published in Nature, forecasting future global extinctions as a result of climate change. The results and conclusions of the study were widely misrepresented, especially in the news media, to make the consequences seem more catastrophic and the timescale shorter. Representations of the original article on the internet were more variable, with several sites ranked highly on popular search engines being overtly critical of the underlying science. We suggest that such polarised representations of environmental science are indicative of a 'struggle for legitimacy' between environmentalist and anti-environmentalist groups, with potential negative consequences for public trust in science.     

Bronze Age upland settlement decline in southwest England: testing the climate change hypothesis

The division of land on Dartmoor during the Bronze Age by the construction of moor-wide boundaries known as reaves represents a significant development in agricultural practice and land tenure. Previous research relating to the Dartmoor reaves suggests this way of life may have continued for no longer than 200–400 years. It has been suggested that their abandonment occurred as the result of a deteriorating climate, although there are no published palaeoclimatic reconstructions from the area. We therefore test the hypothesis that on Dartmoor, a marked climatic deterioration occurred in the late Bronze Age that can be linked to the abandonment of the reaves. A palaeoclimatic reconstruction derived from testate amoebae and peat humification analyses is presented from Tor Royal Bog, central Dartmoor, the first such record from southwest England. A major shift to a cooler and/or wetter climate is inferred from ca. 1395 to 1155 cal BC that is coincident with the period hypothesised as encompassing the abandonment. This climatic deterioration is replicated in sites in northern Britain, suggesting it was a widespread event. It is concluded that while the evidence supports a climatically forced retreat, there are a range of other socio-economic factors that must also be taken into consideration.     

Climate change and security: examining China's challenges in a warming world

The environment is increasingly affected by global climate change. While the causes of climate change are generated across the globe, the impacts of climate change will be highly variable at the local level. An increased scientific understanding of the potential impacts that climate change may have within China has raised new concern among China's leaders. Given that China's domestic realities inform its international policy choices, understanding how climate change may affect its population and natural resources is critical to global climate stabilization efforts. This article examines how the impacts of climate change on China, and China's response, will drive security challenges domestically, as well as in the greater Asian region and around the world. It shows that the impact of climate change on China will be significant and may have sizable adverse economic implications, particularly on vulnerable east coast economic centers. Water scarcity is a problem that already challenges China's leadership and one that will be exacerbated under projected climate impacts. In addition, the country faces the risk of international retaliation should it fail to undertake serious greenhouse gas mitigation actions. Yet China is not without options, and is already well poised to become a leader in the low-carbon technology revolution.     

Scales and networks of neoliberal climate governance: the regulatory and territorial logics of European Union emissions trading

The growing influence of neoliberal approaches to environmental governance has significantly increased the involvement of industry non-state actors in international and national climate governance. However, the implications of this neoliberalisation and hybridisation of climate governance, and particularly state–industry relations during these processes, remain under-integrated with wider geographical debates on the scalar and network politics of environmental governance. In this paper, we probe these issues by examining the regulatory and territorial logics underpinning the negotiation and implementation of the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU ETS). We argue that overlapping interpretations of the regulatory logic of emissions trading (as a cost-effective means of meeting climate objectives) by EU, state and industry actors provided the driving force for the creation of a Europeanised climate governance space and the consolidation of the EU's governing authority in respect of the formal rule-making elements of the EU ETS. However, alliances between state and industry actors, based around intersecting interpretations of their territorial interests in relation to emissions trading, strongly influenced the scheme's design. Moreover, speculative behaviour within the EU ETS market indicates the continued ability of market networks to disrupt territorially-based climate governance regimes. We argue that critical exploration of the territorial logics and practices of EU emissions trading from regime creation to operation provides new insights into the emerging spatial politics of neoliberal environmental governance and its implications for climate protection.     

On exposure,vulnerability and violence: Spatial distribution of risk factors for climate change and violent conflict across Kenya and Uganda

Recent studies discuss the link between climate change and violent conflict, especially for East Africa. While there is extensive literature on the question whether climate change increases the risk of violent conflict onset, not much is known about where a climate-conflict link is most likely to be found. We address this question by analyzing the spatial distribution of the factors commonly associated with a high exposure and vulnerability to climate change, and a high risk of violent conflict onset in Kenya and Uganda. Drawing on recent literature and quantitative data for the period 1998–2008, we develop various specifications of a composite risk index (CRI) with a spatial resolution of half a degree for Kenya and Uganda in the year 2008. A quantitative comparison with conflict data for the year 2008 provides support for the composite risk index. Finally, the composite risk index is contrasted with the findings of three qualitative case studies, which provide mixed support for the index and help to identify its strengths and weaknesses as well as conceptual needs for further quantitative studies on climate change and violent conflict.     

Trends and triggers: Climate,climate change and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

The conventional discourse relating climate change to conflict focuses on long term trends in temperature and precipitation that define ecosystems and their subsequent impact on access to renewable resources. Because these changes occur over long time periods they may not capture the proximate factors that trigger conflict. We estimate the impact of both long term trends in climate and short term climatic triggers on civil conflict onset in Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that both operationalizations have a significant impact. Climates more suitable for Eurasian agriculture are associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict, while freshwater resources per capita are positively associated with the likelihood of conflict. Moreover, positive changes in rainfall are associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict in the following year. We also assess the outlook for the future by analyzing simulated changes in precipitation means and variability over the period 2000–2099. We find few statistically significant, positive trends in our measure of interannual variability, suggesting that it is unlikely to be affected dramatically by expected changes in climate.     

An innovative methodology of assessing the climate change impact on cultural heritage

Climate change is expected to have a severe impact on cultural heritage in the future. This study presents the methodology developed during the FP7 project Climate for Culture, of assessing the climate change impact on collection objects in cultural heritage buildings. The main innovation lies in coupling new high resolution future climate projections with building simulation tools in order to predict future indoor climate and identify future risks in historic buildings. The case study is an intermittently heated wooden chapel in Croatia. The whole building simulation model of the chapel was validated using a newly developed method of accuracy assessment in the context of preventive conservation. Even though modeling intermittent heating induces limitations in the model, it can be used for computing of future indoor data. Future indoor climate data was assessed for possible risks of biological, mechanical, and chemical damage to painted wooden panels using the newly developed specific climate risk assessment. When using this method of damage assessment on buildings with active climate control, especially with intermittent heating, it is recommended to determine the relevant season for the damage process in order to objectively analyze results.     

The role of forests in global climate change: whence we come and where we go

Neither the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) nor the Kyoto Protocol include a satisfying mechanism for reducing the substantial emissions from deforestation which are responsible for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. It is acknowledged that planting forests, for example through afforestation and reforestation in the Clean Development Mechanism, clearly provides an opportunity to sequester carbon in vegetation and soils. However, it takes decades to restore carbon stocks that have been lost as a result of land-use changes. Reducing the rate of deforestation is the only effective way to reduce carbon losses from forest ecosystems. As negotiations on a post-Kyoto agreement have already started the authors argue that a complete and fair post-Kyoto regime will have to expand existing regulations by creating a framework to encompass all land-use and forest-related changes in carbon stocks. Developing countries administer the majority of the world's environmental resources and provide a vital global public good by maintaining environmental assets. However, with increasing pressure on development and the use of resources, developing countries can hardly be expected to provide these services free. Therefore, they will have to be integrated into a more comprehensive incentive framework which also rewards forestry conservation, sustainable forest management and afforestation. The authors discuss how an incentive system for the protection of forests can be included in a future climate regime. Different design choices are considered and two recent approaches to reward developing countries that avoid further deforestation are compared: the 'compensated reduction of deforestation' approach and the Carbon Stock Approach.