A RESIDENTIAL ENERGY MARKET MODEL: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS*

This paper develops a multisector residential energy policy model. This model hypothesizes that household energy behavior is affected by conditions in the housing, the mortgage finance, and the energy markets. The relationships encompassed by the model are specified with 32 single and simultaneous equations and tested with quarterly data drawn from behavior in Delaware. After the testing and evaluation of the model for its statistical performance, thereafter, three energy policies are simulated a 5 percent residential energy consumption tax, a set of conventional insulation requirements for all new housing, and a passive solar-installation requirement for all new housing. These policy choices are evaluated in terms of their impact on energy consumption, prices, demand and size of different types of housing permits, and mortgage financing. Finally, the economic and social implications of these policy impacts are discussed.     

THE INFLUENCE OF HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT ON MIGRATION AND INDUSTRY CHANGE*

ABSTRACT. Individuals’human capital investments in their regions, industries, and occupations are measured as a function of the years they spend in their current region, industry, or occupation, and these investments are shown empirically to influence migration. There is an interesting life cycle pattern to migration: it falls rapidly with new investments, but then resurfaces as an opportunity to renew investments and increase the growth rate of income. Income regressions substantiate the life cycle path of income growth implied by the migration model.     

CAVES AND GEOPHYSICS: AN APPROXIMATION TO THE UNDERWORLD OF TEOTIHUACAN,MEXICO*

This article describes the result of a geophysical survey in the vicinity of the most important construction of the ancient Prehispanic urban centre of Teotihuacan, Mexico. The survey was intended to locate a system of tunnels under the city. It is proposed that the system was originally dug to obtain construction materials, but afterwards it was used for ideological needs.     

AFTERWORDS: AN INTRODUCTION TO ARTHUR DANTO'S PHILOSOPHIES OF HISTORY AND ART*

This essay is written as an introductory essay to celebrate the third edition of Arthur Danto's Analytical Philosophy of History, first printed in 1965. It raises questions about what it means to write an introduction and whether it is possible to write an introduction‐given Danto's own philosophical theses on history, the essay pays special attention to the connections between Danto's philosophy of history, philosophy of art, and the other areas of his philosophy that he regards to be all of a piece. It considers the nature of analytical philosophy and its heyday in America in the postwar period, when, to some degree, it was used as an antidote to an ideology of history that had perverted some of the most influential claims in a philosophy of history developed in Germany (mostly by Hegel) around 1800.     

HISTORY,MIGRATION AND CHILDHOOD: BASQUE REFUGEE CHILDREN IN 1930s BRITAIN

Abstract

The arrival, in May I937, of 4000 Basque refugee children in Britain serves as an important reminder that the history of childhood consists of diverse identities and experiences.At least where refugees are concerned, the extent and nature of this diversity has been crucially shaped by state policies on the principle of asylum. The specific policy of favouring the arrival of unaccompanied children in inter-war Britain illuminates contemporary constructions of the nature of the child. In addition, the policies put in place to receive and settle the children crucially shaped their experiences in exile. Yet these policies were implemented in regional settings and more detailed local studies are required if this marginalized but important aspect of childhood history is to be understood.     

TIME SERIES AND TURNING POINT FORECASTS: A COMPARISON OF ASSOCIATIVE MEMORIES AND BAYESIAN ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO LESAGE'S DATA*

ABSTRACT. Associative memory techniques are drawn from the artificial intelligence literature, and have demonstrated considerable utility for parameter identification in dynamical systems. Previous turning point forecasts constructed by LeSage are compared to forecasts generated by associative memories and simple autoregressive models. Both the associative memories and the autoregressions perform as well or better than the more complicated econometric procedures described by LeSage, with the exception of West and Harrison's (1989) dynamic linear model specification. Extensions are suggested.