MAPPING OF THE POPULATION POTENTIAL

The development of the population potential model and its use both in the Soviet Union and abroad are reviewed. A formula proposed by O. D. Duncan, incorporating the so-called inner potential (equivalent to the actual population) in the formula for the population potential of a region or place is found to yield exaggerated high values for population centers. Interpolation of potentials on the basis of such peak values leads to considerable distortion of reality, as does the use of transport distance instead of straightline distance between interacting places. The author develops new formulas for the construction of population potential maps in an effort to refine the technique and extend its applicability to large-scale mapping.     

THE POTENTIAL MOBILITY OF HUMAN POPULATIONS

Summary. The interpretation of the findings of archaeological surface survey involves making assumptions about the extent and limits to the mobility of communities, land, and individuals in past times. Recent work in medieval and early modern European history has established both the rates and the causes of mobility in a number of different communities. This paper assembles some rather less conclusive evidence from classical Greece to argue that relatively high rates of mobility of individuals, land and communities should not be excluded when a picture of the society of ancient Greece is conjured up.     

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE ON CANADIAN COASTS

The sea-level rise that may result from global climate change is placed within the context of past and present sea-level changes on Canadian coasts. To assess future impact, a dimensionless index of sensitivity is determined. Coasts with low, moderate, and high sensitivity constitute 67%, 30%, and 3% of the total coastline, respectively. The most sensitive regions are: (1) several parts of the Maritime Provinces; (2) two areas of the British Columbia coast; and (3) a large part of the Beaufort Sea coast. Impacts in four regions - Bay of Fundy, Beaufort Sea, Fraser Delta, and Eastern Shore of Nova Scotia - are discussed in detail. It is argued that the societal response to changes in sea level should favour retreat and accommodation strategies.
Il est possible que les changements climatiques globaux provoqueront une élévation du niveau de la mer. Nous examinons ce scénario dans le contexte des changements passés et présents du niveau de la mer sur les côtes canadiennes. Pour évaluer l'impact de l'élévation prévue un indice non dimensionnel de vulnérabilité est déterminé. Les côtes à la vulnérabilité basse, modérée et élevée constituent, respectivement, 67%, 30%, et 3% de tout le littoral. Les régions les plus vulnérables sont: (1) plusieurs régions dans les provinces maritimes; (2) deux zones sur la côte de la Colombie britannique; et (3) la plupart de la côte de la mer de Beaufort. Nous discutons en détail les impacts dans quatre régions, soit la baie Fundy, la mer Beaufort, la delta du Fraser et la rivage dit 'Eastern Shore' de la Nouvelle-Écosse. Nous estimons que la réponse sociale aux changements du niveau de la mer devrait favoriser des stratégies de retraite et d'accommodement.     

POTENTIAL HISTORY: READING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FROM INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGES*

Until the beginning of the twentieth century, history, as a core concept of the political project of modernity, was highly concerned with the future. The many crimes, genocides, and wars perpetuated in the name of historical progress eventually caused unavoidable fractures in the way Western philosophies of history have understood change over time, leading to a depoliticization of the future and a greater emphasis on matters of the present. However, the main claim of the “Historical Futures” project is that the future has not completely disappeared from the focus of historical thinking, and some modalities of the future that have been brought to the attention of historical thought relate to a more-than-human reality. This article aims to confront the prospects of a technological singularity through the eyes of peoples who already live in a world of more-than-human agency. The aim of this confrontation is to create not just an alternative way to think about the future but a stance from which we can explore ways to inhabit and therefore repoliticize historical futures. This article contains a comparative study that has been designed to challenge our technologized imaginations of the future and, at the same time, to infuse the theoretical experiment with contingent historical experiences. Could we consider artificial intelligence as a new historical subject? What about as an agent in a “more-than-human” history? To what extent can we read this new condition through ancient Amerindian notions of time? Traditionally, the relationship between Western anthropocentrism and Amerindian anthropomorphism has been framed in terms of an opposition. We intend to prefigure a less hierarchical and more horizontal relation between systems of thought, one devoid of a fixed center or parameter of reference. Granting the same degree of intellectual dignity to the works of Google engineers and the views of Amazonian shamans, we nevertheless foster an intercultural dialogue (between these two “traditions of reasoning”) about a future in which history can become more-than-human. We introduce potential history as the framework not only to conceptualize Amerindian experiences of time but also to start building an intercultural dialogue that is designed to discuss AI as a historical subject.     

居民社区活动空间共享的公共接触潜力测度方法

社区内的日常活动空间共享有利于创造居民面对面的社会接触,进而增进理解、提升社区信任和社区融合。基于行为地理学理论与方法,提出“物质空间—活动空间共享—社会心理空间”的关系路径,揭示社区居民的活动空间共享的研究意义;从结构、层级、尺度和载体四个角度构建居民社区活动空间共享的公共接触潜力分析框架;从社区和个体两个层级构建公共接触潜力测度方法,基于共同活动的联系衡量社区居民空间共享的广泛程度和频繁程度。在理论框架与指标测度的基础上,使用上海市郊区调查数据进行实证检验,分析了活动空间共享的社区差异和个体差异。研究指出,提升居民空间共享对建设充满人气的活力社区具有意义,能够为郊区社区生活圈建设和社区治理提供支持。     

KIMMERIDGE JET—A POTENTIAL NEW SOURCE FOR BRITISH JET

Archaeological artefacts identified as jet are often assumed to have originated from the principal British source, which is at Whitby in Yorkshire. Geological samples of jet have also been found within the Kimmeridge Blackstone in Dorset—a seam of oil shale which has been worked since prehistoric times to produce artefacts similar to those made from jet. This paper discusses the geology and geochemistry of jet samples from both Whitby and Kimmeridge, and shows that the geological samples can be discriminated by differences in their organic components, as elucidated by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry.     

RESEARCH STRATEGIES FOR EVALUATING THE ADOPTION POTENTIAL OF ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES*

The completely novel nature of some energy technology innovations sometimes makes prospective economic analysis of adoption potential neither desirable nor feasible. Three noneconomic models evaluating adoption potential are examined for technological innovations whose diffusion potential is not yet known. Applications of the general models are suggested with specific references to development of solar total energy systems.     

南京城市轨道交通建设潜在影响下的土地利用分异研究

选取南京轨道交通沿线土地利用状态作为研究对象,针对南京轨道交通建设的发展背景和特点,通过GIS和RS技术,建立南京市中心城区的土地利用、交通等综合数据库,运用"廊道效应"方法,研究轨道交通沿线的土地利用分异情况,探讨轨道交通建设对城市土地利用空间分异的潜在影响。结果表明:居住用地已经表现出明显的廊道效应,从轨道交通线中心圈层向外逐步递减;而公共设施用地和工业用地则表现不明显。基于以上结果,从空间角度研究轨道交通线路与沿线土地利用的相互关系,提出有利于南京轨道交通建设与高强度土地开发相结合的联合开发模式。     

THE IMPACT OF RELATIVE DEPRIVATION ON RETURN INTENTIONS AMONG POTENTIAL MIGRANTS AND COMMUTERS

We empirically analyze the impact of relative deprivation on the intended duration of stay of potential cross‐border commuters and migrants. A theoretical model lends support to the hypothesis that deprivation affects the intended duration of stay of migrants in a U‐shaped fashion, but does not affect potential commuters. Empirical evidence from one of the most densely populated border regions of the EU confirms both these hypotheses. These results are robust over different estimation methods and apply both when measuring deprivation relative to friends and acquaintances as well as relative to the population residing in a region.     

POTENTIAL MAGNETIC SUSCEPTIBILITY AND FRACTIONAL CONVERSION STUDIES OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL SOILS AND SEDIMENTS*

Potential magnetic susceptibility (χ_MAX) and, hence, fractional conversion (χ_CONV) are shown to be critical in interpreting low‐frequency mass‐specific magnetic susceptibility (χ_LF) data. Results presented from 29 sites in the UK and one in Hungary encompass six types of investigation: Quaternary sedimentary stratigraphies, archaeological contexts, surveys of old ground surfaces, topsoil surveys of lithic scatter sites, topsoil prospection surveys and ‘natural’ topsoils. The findings highlight the wide range of χ_MAX values that may be encountered; identify factors affecting χ_MAX; demonstrate that χ_CONV provides a measure of enhancement resulting from burning; and identify environments in which χ_LF analysis is likely to be problematic.     

中国省域旅游业发展潜力的比较研究

对区域旅游产业发展潜力的测评,可以反映区域旅游产业发展的后续能力和未来前景。通过构建区域旅游产业发展潜力评价指标体系,运用因子分析法,借助SPSS统计分析软件,从旅游业产业发展角度出发,对我国31个省、市、自治区旅游业发展潜力的差异进行了量化研究。研究表明,我国东部大部分省域具有较强的旅游产业发展潜力,中部大部分省份旅游产业发展潜力居中,而西部大多省份的旅游产业发展潜力较弱,这与我国经济发展的差异基本上相似。同时,研究也发现,旅游发展潜力的强弱分布基本上与旅游竞争力的强弱分布是一致的。     

THE POTENTIAL MISUSE OF GENETIC ANALYSES AND THE SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION OF 'RACE'AND 'ETHNICITY'

The analysis of genetic material (such as DNA) has been attracting considerable attention for at least a decade. Recent years have seen the first application of genetic analysis to archaeological problems. In some circles DNA seems to be seen as a panacea for all ills. There is, however, little consideration of the methodological problems inherent in extrapolating from genetic information to ancient populations. In particular the assumption that genetic differences equal ethnic differences is challenged. The ethical implications for such research do not seem to have been addressed within the archaeological community.