经济增长与产业结构调整下的陕西省生态压力研究

基于生态文明建设的理念,利用生态足迹的理论和方法,分析陕西省1978-2006年的经济增长、产业结构调整与生态压力变化的关系。对6个反映经济增长和产业结构调整的指标进行因子分析,根据其载荷的大小确定了经济增长和产业结构两个因子,并据此分析陕西省经济增长与产业结构调整下的生态压力的演变特征。结果显示:经济增长对生态压力的影响要大于产业结构调整的影响,经济增长使区域生态压力增大,而产业结构的调整对生态压力的变化有一定的调节作用,减缓了经济增长对生态环境的压力。     

NEGATIVE FEEDBACKS IN THE ECONOMY AND INDUSTRIAL LOCATION*

ABSTRACT. Incorporating regional asymmetry and negative feedbacks (congestion) in a model of economic geography and international trade shows that complete specialization of production at one location is unlikely. We identify an agglomerating force: the home market effect, and two spreading forces, competition for demand from immobile sectors of production and congestion. We demonstrate that negative feedbacks can explain the economic viability of small industrial regions observed in the real world. Simulations clarify the basic structure of the model.     

A SEARCH FOR MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA IN URBAN INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE*

ABSTRACT Theories featuring multiple equilibria are widespread across economics. Yet little empirical work has asked if multiple equilibria are features of real economies. We examine this in the context of the Allied bombing of Japanese cities and industries in World War II. We develop a new empirical test for multiple equilibria and apply it to data for 114 Japanese cities in eight manufacturing industries. The data provide no support for the existence of multiple equilibria. In the aftermath even of immense shocks, a city typically recovers not only its population and its share of aggregate manufacturing, but even the industries it had before.     

产业结构高度化与我国农村城市化水平提高的实例分析——以河南省辉县市为例

城市化与产业结构高度化的关系为一种互动关系。城市化水平的提高对第一产业的优化、第二产业的提升以及对第三产业的带动作用十分明显,而产业结构的合理调整同样需要以城市为载体,对城市化的发展起着积极的促进作用。河南省辉县市是我国农村城市化道路的一个代表。然而近年来其产业结构不合理导致其乡镇企业效益低下、发展后劲不足和环境和生态遭到了严重破坏以及农村剩余劳动力大量存在等问题,影响了辉县市城市化的进程。因此,必须对其产业结构进行调整,以更好地促进辉县市城市化水平的提高。     

PHYSICOCHEMICAL COMPOSITIONAL ANALYSIS OF CERAMICS: A CASE STUDY IN KENTING,TAIWAN*

The composition of ceramics does not just reflect the component of some specific, unprocessed, geological, raw material source, but also certain forms of human behaviour involved in its manufacture. The purpose of this research project is to apply the acid‐extraction chemical method, complemented by a thin‐section petrographic study, to the compositional analyses of certain local ceramic collections (mainly from several sites in the southern Taiwan area). The results present the raw materials that the ceramic manufacturers of the two cultural traditions (O‐laun‐pi Phase II and Phase III–IV), which overlapped temporally, used. These materials came from the same sources, but the ceramics were manufactured in different ways. Particularly, the people of O‐laun‐pi Phase III–IV also procured certain materials from either local sources or from somewhere in eastern Taiwan to make their pots. The results also indicate that there might have been a variation in terms of their manufacture among sites of the same cultural tradition.     

GRAVITY AND SPATIAL STRUCTURE: THE CASE OF INTERSTATE MIGRATION IN MEXICO*

ABSTRACT The estimation of gravity models of internal (aggregate) place‐to‐place migration is plagued with endogeneity (omitted‐variable) biases if the unobserved effects of spatial structure are not accounted for. To address this econometric problem, this paper presents a more general specification of the gravity model, which allows for (bilateral) parameter heterogeneity across individual migration paths—along with (unilateral) origin‐ and destination‐specific effects. The resultant “three‐way fixed‐effects” (3FE) model is applied for an analysis of interstate migration in Mexico based on cross‐sectional data. To overcome parameter‐dimensionality problems (due to limited or incomplete information), the 3FE model is estimated using the Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) estimator. The empirical implications of this new modeling strategy are illustrated by contrasting the 3FE‐GME estimates with those for the traditional and two‐way fixed‐effects (2FE) models. The former are far more plausible and intuitively interpretable than their traditional and 2FE counterparts, with parameter estimates changing in expected directions. The (average) effect of the migrant stock is markedly smaller than usually estimated, providing a more realistic measure of network‐induced migration. Migration outflows from centrally located origins have significantly steeper distance decay. Path‐specific distance effects exhibit directional asymmetries and spatial similarities.     

体验经济时代下旅游项目设计与实证研究

体验性旅游项目设计包括纵向深度设计和横向整合设计。旅游项目纵向设计是深度挖掘单项旅游资源(或吸引物)潜力,实现单项旅游项目经济价值最大化。并就感官指数,时间指数,复杂指数,环节指数,互动指数,交叉指数,遗憾指数,惯性指数8个因子和23个指标提出其定量评价指标体系。旅游项目横向设计,即旅游线路设计,是在纵向设计基础上,对旅游项目在空间上、类型上进行全方位横向整合设计。并以贡嘎山海螺沟风景名胜区为例,在纵向与横向两度空间进行旅游项目体验性设计,为景区体验性旅游项目设计提供理论、方法和范例。     

农业产业集群发展中的共同演化分析——以鄢陵县花木产业集群为例

本文基于演化经济地理学的视角,结合鄢陵县花木产业集群30多年的纵向发展演化实例,探讨了农业产业集群内部微观基础(农户、企业)、中观尺度的产业网络和宏观尺度的外部环境(制度、技术和空间)如何共同演化并决定着农业产业集群的演变。研究发现:①农业产业集群的演化与其内部基本行为主体农户与企业、产业网络、技术、制度和地域空间的演变具有协同作用、共同演化,特定的影响因素与集群网络交互作用形成了集群发展的不同阶段。②在集群发展的不同阶段,企业、网络、技术、空间和制度具有各自的特点和不同的协同演化特征,微观主体的组织创新是对宏观环境变化的适应,宏观环境变化及地域空间演变是微观变化的综合。③在培育农业产业集群的过程中,既要重视个别农户和企业的成功示范,又要重视地理邻近效应对整个产业网络、技术、惯例形成和空间再造的作用。本研究结论对于农业产业集群的管理实践和集群政策制定具有一定的参考价值。     

INTERREGIONAL FEEDBACKS IN INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS: THE LEAST UPPER BOUND*

ABSTRACT. The least upper bound to the overall percentage error resulting from the omission of interregional feedbacks in input-output analysis is defined. This limiting value is the most informative of all upper bounds. A procedure for its computation is outlined and a number of experiments, using U.S. data, are discussed.     

生态系统服务对区域经济增长的影响研究——以黑龙江省为例

以净初级生产力作为生态系统服务的综合测量指标,在经典柯布道格拉斯生产函数的基础上,运用协整与误差修正模型对1986-2010年黑龙江省生态系统服务对区域经济增长的影响进行了分析,并评估了净初级生产力的边际价格。结果表明,黑龙江省生态系统服务对区域经济增长具有明显的促进作用,净初级生产力每提高1%促进真实GDP增长0.0257%;在生态系统服务的影响下,黑龙江省经济系统以每年1.8%的速率将系统波动产生的非均衡状态向长期均衡状态调整,说明生态系统服务在促进经济增长的同时也保障了经济体系的稳定运行;在误差修正模型基础上得到的黑龙江省净初级生产力的边际价格为255.1元/106kgC(以1952年价格为基准),此价格主要受净初级生产力产出弹性的影响。     

多元场和集群创新：河南省神垕钧瓷文化创意产业的案例分析

通过考察多元场对钧瓷文化创意产业知识创造、流动及学习创新的影响发现：①场为主体的地理、社会及文化认知等临近等提供了条件,有助于经验意会及符号知识的获得、共享与传播,有利于思想的交流碰撞及创意萌生;②生产现场、地方关系场、地方社会场与临时性场在钧瓷的学习创新中发挥着不同而又相互补充的作用。生产场推动着集群知识积累和增进,地方关系场促进了行业知识、生产经验及家族核心知识的传播传承,地方社会场形成了地方共享知识信息,而临时场建立起外部通道联系,发挥着更新地方知识库的作用;③地方性的历史文化资源与传统以及地理-社会-文化等临近造就了外围地区文化创意经济的动力,但若未来本地知识更新的机制不够强大,则易产生发展锁定,这是需要未来引起关注的问题。     

MEASURING CHRONOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSIVE SURVEY FINDS: A CASE STUDY FROM ANTIKYTHERA,GREECE*

This paper considers how to make the most out of the rather imprecise chronological knowledge that we often have about the past. We focus here on the relative dating of artefacts during archaeological fieldwork, with particular emphasis on new ways to express and analyse chronological uncertainty. A probabilistic method for assigning artefacts to particular chronological periods is advocated and implemented for a large pottery data set from an intensive survey of the Greek island of Antikythera. We also highlight several statistical methods for exploring how uncertainty is shared amongst different periods in this data set and how these observed associations can prompt more sensitive interpretations of landscape‐scale patterns. The concluding discussion re‐emphasizes why these issues are relevant to wider methodological debates in archaeological field practice.