LIFE CYCLE AND MIGRATION TO URBAN AND RURAL AREAS: ESTIMATION OF A MIXED LOGIT MODEL ON FRENCH DATA*

ABSTRACT This paper examines which types of individuals are attracted to or repelled from rural and urban areas in France. Migration decisions among urban centers, suburbs, and rural areas are examined for three age groups. Differences between locations are assumed to be driven by agglomeration economies and externalities resulting from densities. We therefore stress the role of labor‐market size, land markets, and commuting time in migration decisions. The results from multinomial mixed logits show that large labor markets attract the youngest and in particular educated individuals. Larger family size favors migration from city centers to suburbs, whereas divorce and widowhood increase the probability of moving to an urban center.     

GRAVITY AND SPATIAL STRUCTURE: THE CASE OF INTERSTATE MIGRATION IN MEXICO*

ABSTRACT The estimation of gravity models of internal (aggregate) place‐to‐place migration is plagued with endogeneity (omitted‐variable) biases if the unobserved effects of spatial structure are not accounted for. To address this econometric problem, this paper presents a more general specification of the gravity model, which allows for (bilateral) parameter heterogeneity across individual migration paths—along with (unilateral) origin‐ and destination‐specific effects. The resultant “three‐way fixed‐effects” (3FE) model is applied for an analysis of interstate migration in Mexico based on cross‐sectional data. To overcome parameter‐dimensionality problems (due to limited or incomplete information), the 3FE model is estimated using the Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) estimator. The empirical implications of this new modeling strategy are illustrated by contrasting the 3FE‐GME estimates with those for the traditional and two‐way fixed‐effects (2FE) models. The former are far more plausible and intuitively interpretable than their traditional and 2FE counterparts, with parameter estimates changing in expected directions. The (average) effect of the migrant stock is markedly smaller than usually estimated, providing a more realistic measure of network‐induced migration. Migration outflows from centrally located origins have significantly steeper distance decay. Path‐specific distance effects exhibit directional asymmetries and spatial similarities.     

MIGRATION AS A WAY TO DIVERSIFY: EVIDENCE FROM RURAL TO URBAN MIGRATION IN THE U.S.

This paper extends the utility maximization model of migration by introducing income and unemployment‐related uncertainties as determinants of utility, and analyzes the effects of the informational advantages of migrants. The paper maintains that migration would expand an individual's economic choices and opportunities and allow diversification. Consequently, diversification advantages influence the location decisions of migrants, an effect captured by the correlation of incomes at the origin and potential destinations. We use the discrete choice model based on random utility maximization as the framework for our empirical investigation of migration from the United States rural to urban counties. This paper takes advantage of an equivalent relation between the conditional logit model and Poisson regression to study the migration decisions using aggregate data among a large set of spatial alternatives. The results show that the diversification concerns have significant effects on location decisions of the rural‐urban migrants in the United States.     

基于POI大数据的资源型城市功能区识别方法与实证——以辽宁省本溪市为例

精准识别城市功能区对于优化协调城市人地系统，完善城市规划及促进城市可持续发展具有重要意义。选取公众认知度和地物一般面积对行业POI数据核密度进行加权，构建城市功能区定量识别方法，以本溪为例，输出城市功能区分布图并开展分析。结果表明：①考虑公众认识度与一般面积的核密度加权方法具有更高的实际性和准确性；②本溪市中心城区受地块大小、交通等因素影响，形成“多中心”组团、“单一-混合”功能区协同发展的空间格局。应进一步完善本溪新城区公共服务体系、优化旅游业产业链条，推进资源型城市转型进程。     

THE DETERMINANTS OF THE RECENT INTERREGIONAL MIGRATION FLOWS IN ITALY: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT This study investigates the determinants of interregional migration flows in Italy in the light of the upsurge occurred in 1996, after two decades of decreasing internal migration rates. The fixed‐effect vector decomposition estimator (FEVD) is applied to a gravity model using bilateral migration flows for the period 1996–2005. It is shown that the FEVD improves the estimates with respect to the traditional panel data estimators. The GDP per capita and the unemployment rate appear to be the key determinants whose changes push migrants out from their regions and direct them to “better off” destinations. Migrants leaving the regions in the Center‐North respond differently to the push and pull forces compared to southern migrants. The dynamic model provides evidence for the presence of social networks, which in this analysis take place for each pair of regions.     

欠发达地区城市公交底线公平的空间分异特征及成因分析——以云南省为例

底线公平是欠发达地区城市公交发展的基础指标。基于底线公平理论,本文从公交服务公平性、资源配置公平性、保障公平性三个方面,建立了城市公交底线公平性测度指标体系,采用PCA模型对欠发达地区城市公交的底线公平性进行测度分析,以云南省为例获取城市公交底线公平的空间分异特征,并对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明,云南省城市公交的底线公平性总体较差,空间分布呈现“圈层”特征,全省城市公交底线公平的整体空间分异与主因子空间分异特征吻合;平均候车时间、公交站点覆盖率、公共汽电车责任事故死亡率、公交运营车辆人车比等指标是影响公交底线公平的关键指标。     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN AREAS: TESTING FOR THE APPROPRIATENESS OF THE PARETO DISTRIBUTION USING A GENERALIZED BOX-COX TRANSFORMATION FUNCTION*

ABSTRACT A widely held opinion among urban economists and geographers is that the Pareto distribution is an accurate representation of the urban size distribution of many countries around the world. This paper focuses attention on the appropriateness of the procedures used in the literature in arriving at this conclusion. We employed the generalized Box-Cox transformation function, which permits estimation of many functional forms for testing the Pareto distribution as special cases. The results obtained are illuminating albeit somewhat surprising. Except for one country the Pareto distribution is overwhelmingly rejected in favor of the general Box-Cox function. In more than 30 percent of all countries this form collapses to a reciprocal function. Moreover, as far as the overall goodness of fit is concerned, our results show that the General Box-Cox function is superior to the Pareto form.     

城市居民出游的高铁选乘行为意向的形成机理——以长沙市为例

高速铁路以快捷、舒适、环保的明显优势促成旅游者的选乘决策。基于已有研究成果,思辨选乘动机、选乘阻碍、阻碍协商策略、行为意向的关系,构建人们高铁选乘意向形成的概念模型。选择长沙市居民进行研究,结果表明:快捷选乘动机和阻碍协商策略对行为意向有正向影响,选乘阻碍对阻碍协商策略和行为意向有负向影响。选乘意向的形成有两条路径,一是直接通过快捷动机形成;二是基于快捷和舒适动机,判断选乘阻碍,采取阻碍协商策略,最后形成行为意向。依据研究结论得到了旅游业发展中科学利用高铁的四点启示。     

城市雕塑景观象征意义对城市新区居民地方依恋的影响——以鄂尔多斯康巴什为例

城市雕塑景观作为最重要的城市文化景观之一,研究其象征意义对城市新区居民地方依恋的影响具有重要意义。本文运用结构方程模型,以鄂尔多斯康巴什为案例进行实证研究。研究发现:①城市雕塑景观象征意义可分为地方文化、政治意义以及情感意义三个维度;②城市新区居民地方依恋可分为地方依赖与地方认同两个维度且地方依赖大于地方认同;③城市雕塑景观象征意义会影响居民对城市新区地方依赖,进而影响地方认同;另外象征意义也会直接对地方认同产生影响;同时城市雕塑景观象征意义三个维度两两之间存在着较强的相关关系。     

THE IMPACT OF POLICIES TO CONTROL MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS IN MUMBAI,INDIA*

ABSTRACT This paper examines the impacts of measures to reduce emissions from buses, cars, and two‐wheelers in Mumbai, India. We have considered three possible policies: conversion of diesel buses to CNG, an increase in the price of gasoline and a tax on vehicle ownership. Our results suggest that the most effective policy to reduce emissions from passenger vehicles—in terms of the total number of tons of PM10 reduced—is to convert diesel buses to CNG. The conversion of 3,391 diesel buses to CNG would result in an emissions reduction of 663 tons of PM10 per year, 14 percent of total emissions from transport.     

THE ECONOMIC LAW OF MARKET AREAS: A FURTHER DISCUSSION*

ABSTRACT. The Economic Law of Market Areas, so named by Fetter, is concerned with the division of a territory between two competing centers. It is argued that this Law can be conveniently examined in terms of six cases, each of which is specified by a combination of differentials in freight rates and prices at the two centers. The locational significance of each case is considered, along with the form and dimensions of the market-area boundary between the two centers. Three of the cases are each shown to subsume a special case. It is further shown that for any case except one, a reversal of the differentials between the two centers, while resulting in a symmetrically-equivalent outcome, requires a different (and usually substantial) respecification of the case.     

城市银行网点及其与人口-经济活动关系的空间分析——以长春市中心城区为例

运用Arc GIS平均最近邻、核密度估计和波段集统计等方法,考察长春市中心城区银行网点空间特征和规律,以及银行网点与人口和主要经济活动的空间关系,发现:①银行网点呈明显集聚分布特征,这种集聚主要分布于商业和商务中心及新建中高档住宅小区密集地段;②银行网点核密度与其到CBD距离呈负相关,并随距离地增加呈对数衰减;③银行网点密度与人口-经济活动密度在街道甚至更小空间尺度上存在较显著的正相关;④银行网点核密度与大型商业网点和主要写字楼核密度均呈较强正相关,而与大型制造业企业核密度几乎不存在相关性,说明商业和楼宇经济空间特征对城市内部银行网点布局具有深刻影响,而制造业的微观区位对银行网点布局几乎无影响。