戊戌政变后的唐才常和自立军

戊戌政变以后的唐才常,一方面和资产阶级改良派康有为、梁启超有联系,另一方面又和资产阶级革命派兴中会有接触,思想矛盾,主张模糊。反映在他所领导的自立军,也就呈现了事件本身的复杂性。究竟对唐才常这样一个历史人物应该怎样估价呢?究竟自立军是进步的起义还是反动的“勤王”呢?这是中国近代史上值得探讨的课题之一。我以为唐才常是在近代中国起过     

太子李重俊为什么要发动政变

一个“权”字,导演了千年历史。电视连续剧《大明宫词》的热播重新引发了人们对那段历史的思考。太子李重俊发动政变也逃不脱这个“权”字。     

杨虎城与甘肃政变

从1931年8月到1932年12月,甘肃政局连续发生马鸿宾被扣押、吴佩孚出山和邵力子被迫离任三次大的变动。杨虎城与甘肃政变的这三次浪潮均密切相关：杨和马福祥的暗斗是雷马事变发生的幕后因素,他也借此沉重打击了马福祥家族;吴佩孚出山本是剑指杨虎城,却反而促成杨部会师兰州;邵力子出任甘肃省政府主席乃因杨虎城推荐,但他离任也是受其所迫。甘肃政变作为多方军政势力相互竞逐的具体例证,深刻折射了民国时期权力角逐的游戏规则。蒋介石和杨虎城的关系由此划出一道分水岭,政变亦成为西安事变的一个渊源。     

《自书〈戊戌纪略〉后》作者和写作时间献疑

《戊戌纪略》为袁世凯写于戊戌政变后不久。但《自书〈戊戌纪略〉后》,却很有可能不是袁世凯所写。其写作时间也不是在戊戌年,而应在1909～1921年之间。《自书〈戊戌纪略〉后》中有“交诸子秘藏之”一语,然而戊戌年袁世凯诸子除袁克定外,都未成年或尚未出生。由此可证,《自书〈戊戌纪略〉后》不可能写于戊戌年。袁世凯次子袁克文断然否定《自书〈戊戌纪略〉后》为其父所作,也不记得袁世凯将《戊戌纪略》和《自书〈戊戌纪略〉后》交其秘藏一事,这是《自书〈戊戌纪略〉后》并非袁世凯所写的有力证据。原北京历史博物馆所藏《戊戌纪略》稿本和张一麐的《戊戌纪略》抄本中没有《自书〈戊戌纪略〉后》,是其并非袁世凯写于戊戌年的重要物证。     

浅析戊戌政变后日本援助中国维新派的原因

戊戌政变发生后,日本朝野对中国维新派君臣开展了大力营救,康有为、梁启超东渡日本后继续为维新事业而奔走。日本援助中国维新志士不只出于对戊戌维新志士的钦佩与同情,日本积极倡导的亚洲门罗主义以及戊戌变法时期世界政治形势的变化也是日本援助中国维新派的不可忽视的重要因素。     

论行政伦理建设中的社会舆论

社会舆论是行政伦理建设的重要方式之一,社会舆论的监督和评价的功能具有很大的震慑力量,社会舆论的裁决、教育、调节作用在行政伦理建设中非常重要,切实运用好其发挥作用的各种途径和方式,并通过营造良好的社会舆论氛围把行政伦理建设进一步加强和提高。     

我在“四一二“政变前后

1926年起始,我有幸在周恩来直接领导下学习与工作,卷入了初期的革命洪涛。今日回眸,已是七十多年前的旧事了。在沪东训练班听讲1925年,我参加了“五卅”反帝斗争后。徐梅坤领我见了陈独秀。当时我幼稚的心里十分振奋,觉得认识了渴慕已久的一代伟人,是我的荣幸。但是也有些微遗憾,因为陈独秀是严肃的“家长”,他比我大30岁,在他的面前我感到拘谨。不久,徐梅坤又领我见到了罗亦农、赵世炎之后,又介见了周恩来,     

"四一二"政变后,蒋介石对付武汉国民政府的手段

1927年4月12日。蒋介石在上海发动“四一二”政变,大肆屠杀共产党人和工农群众。消息传到武汉,武汉国民政府和中国共产党、第三共产国际发表宣言反对和声讨。     

也论新疆“三七政变”

"三七政变"由樊耀南及拥护他的新进派势力所发起,杨增新的牵制政策导致保守派作为制衡力量卷入其中,两股政治力量对决的结果是金树仁的最终胜出。新疆的政权更迭,为国民政府统合新疆提供了契机,而这场政变实质上是受隐伏于新疆社会深层的现代化革新的欲望所驱动。     

宋代文人士大夫与荒政变革

荒政在宋代发生了思想、制度、机构的变革,完成了制度化的过程,形成了较为完整的荒政构架。在这个过程中,宋代新兴的“文人士大夫”阶层起到了重要的推动作用,本文通过研究“文人士大夫”阶层在宋代的形成和政治地位论证其参与荒政变革的可能性,并考证“文人士大夫”阶层的荒政思想于荒政思想史中的重要变革以及其在荒政实践中的具体创新,以期还原宋代文人士大夫在宋代荒政变革中的重要贡献。     

论晚明东林党的舆论活动及其影响

晚明是中国古代舆论最活跃的时期,其中又以东林党的舆论力量最为显著。从万历初年到天启末年,东林党人的舆论活动经历了三个阶段。东林党围绕官员诠选、官员考察、对阁臣的批判、以学术促清议等方面开展了一系列舆论活动,其主张在邸报发抄、印刷刻传和书信交流等方式的扩散之下,迅速流通于士林。东林党以舆论为载体,形成了与朝廷对峙和对话的政治力量。东林党的舆论活动加剧了明政府的党争态势,加速了官僚系统的分裂,不利于政治局面的稳定。但东林党的舆论主导了当时的社会思潮,对社会风气尤其是士大夫的气节产生了一种鼓舞作用。     

朝野纠葛:北京政府时期的舆论与外交--以关税特别会议为个案的考察

关于北京政府时期的外交,尽管学术界近来已开始有了较为客观的评价,不过对于其背后因素的考察还有待深入。实际上,在北京政府时期,由于特殊的时代背景,各种社会舆论被全面动员起来,以汹涌澎湃之势冲击着外交这一特殊的政治领域,从而形成了近代史上国民外交的黄金时期。于是,由于中央政府统治的虚弱,在其决策者进行外交运作时,就处处受到来自舆论界的影响,这是一个极为明显的历史特色,通过对当时舆论的考察,就会更深层次地探究北京政府外交的两难境地。笔者在考察时,主要以关税特别会议为个案,以上海舆论为核心,以《申报》、《东方杂志》等报刊为第一手资料。     

Positive Returns and Equilibrium: Simultaneous Feedback Between Public Opinion and Social Policy

This paper pushes forward political research from across disciplines seeking to understand the linkages between public opinion and social policy in democracies. It considers the thermostatic and the increasing returns perspectives as pointing toward a potentially stable set of effects running between opinion and policy. Both theoretical perspectives argue that opinion and policy are reciprocally causal, feeding back on one another. This is a general argument found in opinion‐policy literatures. However, much empirical research claims to model “feedback” effects when actually using separate unidirectional models of opinion and policy. Only a small body of research addresses opinion‐policy endogeneity directly. In this paper I consider an opinion‐policy system with simultaneous feedback and without lags. I argue that there is a theoretical equilibrium in the relationship of opinion and policy underlying the otherwise cyclical processes that link them. Given that available cross‐national data are cross‐sectional and provide limited degrees of freedom, an ideal theoretical model must be somewhat constrained in order to arrive at empirically meaningful results. In this challenging and exploratory undertaking I hope to open up the possibility of a general system of effects between public opinion and social policy and how to model them in future research. I focus on social welfare policy as it is highly salient to public interests and a costly area of government budgets, making it an area of contentious policymaking. Social policy is also a major part of the thermostatic model of opinion and policy, which was recently extended to the cross‐national comparative context (Wlezien & Soroka, 2012) providing a critical predecessor to this paper because identification of equilibrium between public opinion and social policy in any given society is greatly enhanced through comparison with other societies. This counterfactual approach helps to identify opinion‐policy patterns that may not change much within societies, but can be seen as taking on discrete trajectories between societies.     

The Determinants of Public Policy: What Matters and How Much

This article is a research synthesis addressing four questions critical to our understanding of the determinants of public policy. How often and how strongly do hypothetical determinants of policy—public opinion, interest groups, the party balance, and other factors—actually influence policy? Do some hypothetical determinants of policy have more influence than others? Does the way we measure policy affect our ability to explain it? And is there a connection between how strongly particular variables affect policy, and how much effort we devote to studying them? It turns out that variables hypothesized to influence policy more often than not have no effect. When variables do affect policy, researchers very seldom say anything about how much impact they have. Variables that convey the most information to policymakers about what the public wants have a greater impact than other variables, but it is less clear how the measurement of policy affects our findings. Researchers pay much attention to hypothetical determinants of policy unlikely to matter very much, and little attention to those likely to be the most important. Implications for future research are considered.     

Political Attention and Public Spending in the United States

According to Jones and Baumgartner's disproportionate information processing model, it is crucial to study fluctuations in congressional attention over time and across policy issues to understand congressional policy decisions including decisions on the federal budget. Drawing on classical ideas about reelection-oriented behavior, on the one hand, and the blocking power of federal agencies, on the other, this paper extends and specifies the attention-spending predictions of the disproportionate information processing model. Specifically, spending effects of congressional attention shifts are argued to be crucially dependent on both the spending preferences expressed by the U.S. public and on pressure from spending advocates. An empirical evaluation of the association between changes in congressional attention measures and federal budget appropriations across 12 spending domains and 33 years (1970–2003) supports this conditional hypothesis derived from the extended disproportionate information processing model.     

北洋政府时期社会舆论中的外交系

巴黎和会与华盛顿会议以后,王正廷、顾维钧、王宠惠等人纷纷回国入主北京内阁,而且一度左右北京政坛.时论对他们参与内政的评价褒贬不一,而党派之争又使他们的身份复杂化,要客观地评价他们,既要注意其自身的因素,也要兼顾到当时的社会舆论.     

The Effects of Beneficiary Targeting on Public Support for Social Policies

We assess the tendency for the public to use group‐centric policy evaluations with evidence from a survey experiment concerning two issues within the social policy domain, health care and aid to cities. By randomly varying target group identity within each issue and using both negatively and positively regarded groups our evidence shows that differences exist in the tendency for members of the public to use group‐centric heuristics. Group‐centric evaluations are related to party identification and political ideology. Across both issues conservatives and Republicans are more likely than liberals or Democrats to adopt a group‐centric heuristic. Partisan and ideological differences suggest that established theories miss the mark by emphasizing how universal policy designs are preferred to designs that target unpopular groups.     

改进基层公务员绩效考核之我见

当前,在公务员队伍中存在着“庸政”、“懒政”现象,这些虽属个别现象,但是如果不严格治理,将严重损害党和政府的形象。因此,对公务员特别是基层公务员开展程序规范、便于操作、导向明确、约束力强的绩效考核,对于改善公务员的工作状态和提高公务员的工作水平意义重大。本文借鉴实践中的一些成功经验,对改进绩效考核提出基本设想。     

Trans-Subsystem Dynamics: Policy Topography, Mass Opinion, and Policy Change

We argue that the treatment of trans-subsystem change, and particularly the role of public opinion in fostering such change, within the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) has been underspecified. We propose a model of "policy topography" that combines the concepts of public opinion, clusters of linked subsystems, and policy issue venues. While the ACF has characterized subsystems as relatively self-contained, we argue that they are more usefully understood as operating in a relatively permeable fashion among evolving clusters of subsystems linked together by networked relations, strategically overlapping policy considerations, and public opinion disruptions. The "policy topography" model offers opportunities to assess the relationships across policy subsystems, and to better specify the critical relationship between public policy and mass opinions. We offer examples, and suggest hypotheses along with avenues for appropriate empirical analysis.