The Local Implications of Major Job Transformations in the City: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach

The changing dynamics of regional and local labor markets during the last decades have led to an increasing labor market segmentation and socioeconomic polarization and to a rise of income inequalities at the regional, urban, and intraurban level. These problems call for effective social and local labor market policies. However, there is also a growing need for methods and techniques capable of efficiently estimating the likely impact of social and economic change at the local level. For example, the common methodologies for estimating the impacts of large firm openings or closures operate at the regional level. The best of these models disaggregate the region to the city (Armstrong 1993; Batey and Madden 1983). This paper demonstrates how spatial microsimulation modeling techniques can be used for local labor market analysis and policy evaluation to assess these impacts (and their multiplier effects) at the local level‐to measure the effects on individuals and their neighborhood services. First, we review these traditional macroscale and mesoscale regional modeling approaches to urban and regional policy analysis and we illustrate their merits and limitations. Then, we examine the potential of spatial microsimulation modeling to create a new framework for the formulation, analysis and evaluation of social and local labor market policies at the individual or household level. Outputs from a local labor market microsimulation model for Leeds are presented. We show how first it is possible to investigate the interdependencies between individual's or households labor market attributes at the microscale and to model their accessibilities to job opportunities in different localities. From this base we show how detailed what‐if microspatial analysis can be performed to estimate the impact of major changes in the local labor market through job losses or gains, including local multiplier effects.     

Regional Labor Market Dynamics, Housing, and Migration

Abstract.  This study explores the impact of plant‐level labor market dynamics and housing markets on gross migration flows. The internal and the external reorganizations of regional labor markets are shown to be related. An increase in internal turnover of jobs and workers in regional labor markets is found to increase net‐migration. This effect arises mainly from a reduction in out‐migration. Housing markets constitute constraints for migration. In particular, an increase in regional housing prices and a large share of owner‐occupancy housing discourages net‐migration to a region by reducing in‐migration. In contrast, the out‐migration rate remains largely unaffected by housing markets.     

Business dynamism,educational attainment,and residential location choice

Using individual-level, geocode data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth's 1997 cohort, I ask whether business dynamism in local labor markets, defined as the rates of job creation and establishment entry, affects the location decisions of labor force participants, and I examine how effects differ for highly and less educated labor force participants. I find that a one standard deviation increase in business dynamism is associated with a 2%–4% increase in the probability a college graduate chooses a metropolitan statistical area and an 8%–15% decrease for high school graduates with no college experience. These results support recent findings documenting a decrease in responsiveness to local labor market conditions and suggest that incentivizing job creation in local labor markets may not be enough to offset the trend of declining internal migration in the United States.     

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS IN LOCAL HOUSING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. METROPOLITAN REGIONS

ABSTRACT.  This paper investigates the effects of national and regional economic conditions on outcomes in the single-family housing market: housing prices, vacancies, and residential construction activity. Our three-equation model confirms the importance of changes in regional economic conditions, income, and employment on local housing markets. The results also provide the first detailed evidence on the importance of vacancies in the owner-occupied housing market on housing prices and supplier activities. The results also document the importance of variations in materials, labor and capital costs, and regulation in affecting new supply. Simulation exercises, using standard impulse response models, document the lags in market responses to exogenous shocks and the variations arising from differences in local parameters. The results also suggest the importance of local regulation in affecting the pattern of market responses to regional income shocks.     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM OF SPATIAL PRODUCT AND LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT A simple general equilibrium model relates spatial product markets and spatial labor markets. The firm is treated as being a spatial monopolist or as a Löschian competitor in the output market and as a spatial monopsonist in the labor market. Derived free spatial demand and free regional labor supply are defined, and their properties examined. The model provides the framework for analyzing the impact of a technological improvement in labor productivity on the structure of the spatial markets. The impact of entry on spatial labor supply is an important determinant of whether or not entry lowers wages and raises output prices. Unlike the spaceless competitive paradigm, zero-profit long-run equilibrium can occur in a space economy under conditions of increasing returns to scale.     

SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY AND THE WAGE CURVE REVISITED*

ABSTRACT Most “wage curve” studies ignore the geography of local labor markets. However, when a local labor market is in close proximity of other labor markets, a local shock that increases unemployment may not lead to lower pay rates if employers fear outward migration of their workers. Hence, the unemployment elasticity of pay will be greater, the more isolated the local labor market is. Wages are also expected to be higher in regions that interact strongly with other regions. These hypotheses are confirmed by means of an estimation of wage curves with data for 327 regions of western Germany over the period 1990–1997.     

跨国公司地方嵌入新视角:基于地方劳工市场的研究进展与理论思考

20世纪90年代以来,跨国公司地方嵌入研究相对聚焦于资本密集型或技术密集型企业,而需要大量非熟练工人的劳动密集型跨国企业并未引起足够关注,建立在产业联系、技术外溢、社会网络等核心概念基础上的跨国公司地方嵌入分析框架很显然不能很好地解释劳动密集型跨国公司地方嵌入的理论与实践问题。在劳工地理学、新经济地理学等学科背景下,基于全球生产网络、关系嵌入、空间修复等核心概念,研究分别从劳工能动性的空间尺度、跨国公司地方嵌入的劳工要素、劳工管控对跨国公司的地方嵌入、区域劳工景观的空间修复等视角出发,系统梳理相关研究进展并提出未来主要研究议题,包括如何识别劳工供需因素对跨国公司地方嵌入的影响机制,如何剖析特殊劳工管控体制下劳工空间实践与能动性的关系,如何刻画跨国公司地方嵌入对区域劳工经济地理景观的影响,如何总结跨国公司地方嵌入与区域发展的战略耦合模式等。     

Worker Endowments and the Effects of Institutions on Earnings Realization: A Cross-National Comparison

In this study we investigate how differential institutions, and their observance within regional labor markets, impact potential earnings realization. We investigate institutional linkages to labor market outcomes by means of cross-nation comparisons between the United States and the Netherlands. In this regard, better job-matching (information) programs, higher relative unemployment benefits and minimum wages, and a greater prevalence of both trade unionism and collective bargaining likely work to the favor of Dutch workers, and in turnaugment their reservation wages during job search. The predictable outcome of higher earnings realization among Dutch workers is tested econometrically by frontier estimation.     

Evolution of the Labor Market in a Regional City:The Changing Economic Performance of Emigrants from Mexico City*

Abstract. This paper draws on micro‐level data to fully inform the debate on decentralization and regional development. Using labor‐income trajectories of emigrants from Mexico City, the paper analyzes how the labor market in a regional city, Leon, evolves. Results from the econometric model suggest that migrants’ labor‐income trajectories differ between the large agglomeration and the regional city in an early stage of the evolution of the labor market, but converge in a later stage. Specifically, the slope of the earning function for recent migrants is steeper and statistically different from the slope for early migrants. The findings presented in this paper enrich the existing theory by providing microfoundations to a typically macroeconomic area of research and enable policy makers to better understand the processes underpinning the evolution of regional labor markets.     

ON THE IMPACT OF LABOR MARKET MATCHING ON REGIONAL DISPARITIES*

ABSTRACT We propose a model where imperfect matching between firms and workers on local labor markets leads to incentives for spatial agglomeration. We show that the occurrence of spatial agglomeration depends on initial size differences in terms of both number of workers and firms. Allowing for dynamics of workers' and firms' location choices, we show that the spatial outcome depends crucially on different dimensions of agents' mobility. The effect of a higher level of human capital on regional disparities depends on whether it makes workers more mobile or more specialized on the labor market.     

Intervening Opportunities, Competing Searchers, and the Intrametropolitan Flow of Male Youth Labor

This paper analyzes the determinants of the journey-to-work commuting patterns for male teenage workers within a single local labor market: the Oakland Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area. Controlling for the intervening opportunities and the intervening labor supply between a given origin and destination reduces the estimated negative effect of distance on the interzonal flow of labor by nearly 90 percent. Nonetheless, physical distance has a significant and substantial negative effect on intrametropolitan youth labor flows. Despite the high correlation between intervening opportunities and intervening competing workers, both spatial variables have sizable, and independent, effects on labor flows.     

THE GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF HUMAN CAPITAL: MEASUREMENT OF CONTRIBUTING MECHANISMS

This paper investigates how the geographic distribution of human capital—measured as college attainment—evolves over time. With U.S. data, I decompose generation‐to‐generation changes in local human capital into three factors: the previous generation's human capital, intergenerational transmission of skills from parents to their children, and migration of the children. I find significant persistence of local skills at the commuting zone (local labor market) level. Labor market size, climate, and local colleges affect local skill measures. Skills move from urban‐to‐rural labor markets through intergenerational transmission but from rural‐to‐urban labor markets through migration.     

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CULTURAL DIVERSITY IN THE NETHERLANDS: PRODUCTIVITY,UTILITY, AND SORTING*

ABSTRACT This paper identifies the impact of cultural diversity on local economies, by explaining spatial disparities in wages and housing prices across Dutch cities using unique individual panel data of homeowners during the period 1999 and 2008. We distinguish between the effects of spatial sorting based on individual heterogeneity, interactions‐based productivity effects, and consumer amenities while controlling for interactions between the labor and housing market. In line with previous literature, we find a positive effect of cultural diversity on average housing prices. After controlling for spatial sorting, the effect of cultural diversity on housing prices is negative. The negative impact of cultural diversity on local housing markets is likely driven by a causal effect between the presence of immigrants and neighborhood quality that outweighs a positive effect of immigrant‐induced diversity in consumption goods.     

WORKER DISPLACEMENT AND JOB-SEARCH: A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL IMPEDIMENTS TO REEMPLOYMENT*

ABSTRACT. This study investigates the human, and in turn the regional, consequences of industrial restructuring in the United States. Our methodology presumes that labor market outcomes of displaced workers can provide considerable information on the structural properties of local labor markets, and subsequently upon the capacity of such areas/regions to reemploy additional workers. The examination follows two steps. In the first, a multivariate model of reemployment likelihood is developed and subsequently estimated. Separate equations are obtained for various resons of the country, a disaggregation that permits one to identify how postdisplacement reemployment, and its determinants, vary systematically across space. In the second step, the above estimates are decomposed into two elements, one of which is reflective of regional structural conditions. Based upon this methodology and estimates obtained in the first step, regions of the country are compared as to magnitude of their structural economic problems, and thus as to their capacity to gainfully reemploy additional workers displaced by plant closure or relocation.     

Regional Occupational Employment Projections: Modeling Supply Constraints in the Direct‐Requirements Approach*

Detailed industry‐occupation employment forecasts are an important class of regional labor market information produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In theory, the forecasts should improve the national, interregional, and intertemporal matching efficiency of labor markets. But the efficiency argument is dependent on the quality of the forecasts. The methodology used to produce the projections is still fundamentally a demand‐requirements approach that implicitly assumes that labor supply is infinitely elastic for every occupation. This paper examines the validity of that assumption and evaluates a demographically based labor supply module as an adjunct to the current methodology.     

Polarization and the growth of low‐skill service jobs in Spanish local labor markets

This paper analyzes the long‐term transformations of the occupational structure in 50 provinces of Spain with a view to ascertain the existence and assess the extent of employment polarization. The peculiar characteristics of this country, namely rigid labor markets and the relatively recent transition to democracy, make for an interesting addition to existing studies on this topic. In line with previous literature on other countries, we find a strong association between the decline of “routine” mid‐skill jobs and the expansion of low‐skill service employment as well as differential labor market outcomes by levels of formal education. Results are robust to various controls and instrumental variables that account for long‐term industry specialization. We also find a positive local multiplier effect of high‐skilled workers on the demand for nontradable service jobs.     

The impact of long-distance commuting on salaries and employment in host regions in Chile

Long-distance commuting (LDC) is an increasingly relevant strategy of labor mobility worldwide and is therefore key to understanding the structure and dynamics of labor markets. However, little is known about the effect that LDC has on the labor market equilibrium of host territories. This paper addresses this gap for the case of Chile. While LDC is a useful strategy for improving salary and employment on a national scale, our results show a negative effect for residents in host territories (on a local scale), particularly when LDC results in commuters with similar characteristics to residents competing for the same jobs.     

劳工地理研究新进展评述

在经济地理学的研究中,劳工常常被看作是与自然资源、资金、技术等同类的经济要素,只重视劳动成本,忽视了劳工作为社会活动主要参与者的角色。近年来,劳工地理研究取得了长足的进展,弥补了传统地理学研究的不足。全球化背景下的工人运动、劳工组织和地方劳工控制体制,劳工市场的空间分割,不同政治、经济和文化背景下的农区劳工地方化逐渐成为劳工地理的重要研究方向。     

The Impact of Raw-Material Factor on the Territorial Production Structure of Primary Processing Industry

A case study of the lumbering and forest-products industry seeks to establish the effectiveness of the territorial structure of primary processing under the impact of the resource base and of various economic nonphysical factors. A set of variables, including the magnitude of timber reserves, volume of output and the regional conditions of production, is analyzed on an oblast-by-oblast basis to establish their impact on the structure of the industry. Economic effectiveness is measured in terms of the level of labor productivity resulting from various combinations of factors. In general, labor productivity tends to be high in timber-rich regions with large volumes of production. But high levels of performance can also be achieved with low volumes of production if the industrial structure reflects the magnitude of the local timber supply (timber-intensive industries in timber-rich regions and nonintensive industries in timber-poor regions) or if the structure is adapted to local market needs. Previous papers on the subject appeared in Soviet Geography, May 1972.     

On entrepreneur ship,region and the constitution of scale and scope economies

This paper proposes a framework of analysis in which: (1) the constitution of new sources of economies of scale or scope is supported by systemic entrepreneurship; (2) the realization of such economies by incremental entrepreneurship takes the form of external economies, or alternatively of internal economies, together with the prevalence of different combinations of organizations, technologies and regional characters; and (3) the manifestation in the form of external economies is sustained by market rules and focused public intervention, which complement the working of markets, and which can be embedded in regional (or local) relations. Further and more specific conclusions will be referred to in the case of external economies within production systems which are assuming or are reproducing the techno‐organizational characters of flexible specialization. The standard case of the industrial district with final markets largely characterized by differentiated and variable markets falls within such application.