Immigration Responses to Global Change in Asia: a Review

There has been a parametric increase in the scale and complexity of global international migration in the last fifteen years. Asia has been prominent in this change with countries in the region being important sources and destinations of migrants. This paper summarises the main developments which are occurring in south‐north migration, student migration, forced migration, north‐north migration and international labour migration. In the transformation of international population movement in the region a most striking feature is the strong pattern of circularity in movement and the networks which are established between origin and destination. It is argued that several global changes have been instrumental in these changes. These include the three ‘Ds’: demography, development and democracy. It is shown that increasing gradients of difference between nations in the pattern of growth (or lack of it), in the workforce, in income and poverty levels and in patterns of governance, have been important drivers of the migration. Moreover they are likely to increase in their impact over the next two decades. In addition, the impact of global environmental change on migration is considered, as are the effects of proliferating social networks and the global migration industry.     

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.     

The determinants of labor migration in Egypt

The factors which affect individual decisions with regard to geographic movement in Egypt are examined and the magnitude in which each factor exerts its influence on aggregate geographic labor supply adjustments is estimated. The spatial unit used in the study is the administrative region, of which there are 25. No effort is made to esimate the impact which migration has had on the origin or destination region. The migrant will presumably choose that destination which, given his information, the migrant thinks will be best. The model which is employed attempts to explain gross interregional migration without the explicit introduction of an individual decision function. Rather, migration is related to certain aggregate proxy variables. Among the independent variables employed in the analysis are (origin and destination) income, education, urbanization, and population. The other explanatory variable used is the distance between region i and region j. The migration measure employed refers to cumulative male migration which occurred prior to 1960; the independent variables are defined for a given point in time (1960). The independent variables explain a reasonably large percentage of the variance in migration between regions in Egypt. All variables were significant at the 5% level or better. The findings indicate that distance acts as an important impediment to migration. Migration is away from low wage and toward high wage regions, which may have contributed to a narrowing of regional wage differentials. Migrants are attracted to regions which have large populations and to regions which have a large percentage of urban to total population. A tendency exists for migrants to come from regions with large populations. There is also some tendency for migrants to come from regions which have a relatively large urban population. Migrants do not appear to come from regions with high educational levels.     

The Impact of a Customs Union with the European Union on Internal Migration in Turkey

Abstract The impact of the recent Customs Union (CU) agreement between Turkey and the European Union on internal migration is studied using an intra‐industry trade Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with intersectoral capital mobility under two alternative specifications for the labor market: the traditional Harris‐Todaro approach and the existence of a “wage curve” in the urban sector. Under both specifications, the numerical results show that the CU is welfare enhancing and causes a reduction of the urban‐rural wage gap as suggested by theoretical studies. At the same time, it leads to rural‐to‐urban migration and raises the capital rent, results that are counter intuitive with respect to the dual economy literature. Furthermore, the rise in formal labor demand and the migration response to the CU have not resulted in an increase in urban unemployment (i.e. the “Todaro paradox”), but rather to a fall in the unemployment pool. The study also shows that the Bhagwati‐Srinivasan proposal of maximizing welfare by uniformly subsidizing the entire labor market is impracticable, especially if the high wage union sector can negotiate employment conditions.     

Population geography

Population geographers are involved in contemporary policy issues, the production of quality work, and successful communication of research findings. This article reviewed some contributions population geographers have made to the understanding of the geographic impact of aging and the consequences of migration. Geographers have come late to the study of aging and have focused primarily on four main policy issues: 1) fertility decline, 2) housing demography, 3) aged patterns of housing and migration, and 4) government policy. Fertility decline research has highlighted information diffusion theories for fertility decline by researchers such as Zelinsky, Skeldon, and Noin. Changes in attitudes and the removal on constraints has been examined by Woods. Residential mobility studies have been the focus of researchers such as Gober, Moore, and Clark, and Myers. Regional labor markets and the movement of the "baby boom" through the life course have been examined by Miron, Plane and Rogerson, and Clout, who studied the empty nesters and the movement out of suburbia. Private residential housing has increased for the elderly in England and Wales (Hamnett and Mullings), and seasonal migration of Minnesotans results in lost sales revenues and high health and social costs for those too ill to travel (Craig). Geographers have not accomplished a significant thrust into the literature on demographic aging. Contributions to the transnational and international literature have resulted in internal migration studies by Clout on "counterurbanization" in northwestern industrial Europe, while Fielding, Baltensperger, Marchand and Scott, and Jones have examined the continuing rural-urban migration. The loss of urban population has been associated with inner city problems, the impact of labor supply and market demand, and the revenue and health care consequences in the work of Champion, Gibson, and Champion and Illeris, and Craig. Impacts are felt differently by geographic location, and assorted models have been developed for examining interregional migration. Population movement between countries will be a future major policy issue associated with disparities in development. The benefits and disadvantages of immigration have been examined. Refugee movements have been a neglected are of study.     

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983 1. Migration Probabilities

This is part one of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983: 2. Disequilibrium

This is part two of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

Migration motives of gay men in the new acceptance era: a cohort study from Malmö, Sweden

Greater diversity in life courses has become both possible and real in the twenty-first century, affecting the relocation behaviours of individuals. Therefore, it is logical that the relocation patterns of minorities have been receiving increasing attention. In particular, the migration patterns of gay men have been studied, with a focus on the embodied reasons for mobility. This downsized analysis has shown the importance of identity building and identity search. However, this article argues that analysis of migration among gay men also needs to be upsized. This study aims to show how both context and embodiment has affected the mobility of gay men. Through a case study within the context of a strong welfare state (Sweden) that adopted sexual equality early, gay men’s motives for migration are studied. The results suggest that the migration patterns of gay men are becoming more similar to those of the general population. This finding shows that current conceptualisations of the migration patterns of gay men can be advanced by acknowledging contextual effects. The integration of a downsized and an upsized understanding also offers the possibility of moving beyond the identity specifics showing that populations are becoming increasingly diverse and homogeneous simultaneously.     

基于GIS的中国省际人口迁移流的空间特征分析

文章基于中国第五、六次人口普查与2005年1%人口普查数据资料,采用流数据分析方法,运用GIS空间分析技术,选用省际人口迁移的最大联系线、最大迁出流、最大迁入流、期望线、迁移效率、粗迁移率等方法系统地研究了我国1995-2010年间省际迁移的时空动态特点及其区际联系。结果表明:全国省际人口迁移的流动性不断增强,东部地区更明显;省际最大人口迁出与迁入流反映了中国省际区域间空间相互作用整体框架,全国大致可以分为3个人口吸引片区和5个辐射片区;省际最大净迁移流主要分布在东南沿海地区,中、西部地区分布较少,其空间分布与各省的MEI_(i)指数密切相关。     

Migration at the micro-scale: intra-parochial movements in rural Normandy, 1946-54

"Most working definitions of migration accept that only movements across local authority boundaries can normally be dealt with: by the use of questionnaire surveys certain urban studies have examined intra-unit moves but few non-urban migration studies have been able to penetrate below the level of local authority boundaries. In this paper use is made of various unpublished documents available in connection with population censuses in France from which it is possible to examine migration within rural communes for the intercensal period from 1946 to 1954. Twelve communes were investigated and the emerging picture of intra-parochial migrants have been compared with that of inter-parochial movers." The author notes "differences in age-structure between the two groups. Net movement takes place up the settlement hierarchy within each 'commune', whilst the reasons for movement show that between village-centres and outlying settlements there are certain social cleavages."     

Settlement Dimensions of the Vietnam-Born Population in Metropolitan Sydney

Australia has the largest Indochinese population per capita in the world, and Sydney supported sizeable populations from Vietnam in 1986. These populations became socially visible because of physical characteristics and clustering and have generated the response by some commentators that ghettos are forming. This paper examines the extent of residential concentration of Vietnamese-bom population in Sydney and changes over time in the distribution of settlement with reference to new immigration and internal migration. Gravitation group migration has reinforced concentration, but the result has not been ghettos, although there have been specific local problems of unemployment and housing access which may constrain residential mobility for some time. Manufacturing and residential restructuring have affected unemployment and have constrained dispersion. Institutional factors have reinforced concentration. Some residential mobility will be required for entry into a diversity of labour markets, if unemployment is to be reduced in the context of the restructuring of manufacturing production.     

A demographic analysis of the population growth of states, 1950-1980

Factors affecting regional differences in population growth in the United States are explored. "In this study, we estimated the contributions of births, deaths, and migration to changes in population size between 1950 and 1980 for the 48 contiguous states in the United States. We found that population momentum (i.e., the growth that would occur in a closed population if fertility and mortality rates remained constant) had the largest effect on population growth in most states, but that differences in net migration were the major cause of state-to-state differences in growth rates. We also found that net migration has been gaining in importance compared to natural increase as a component of population growth. We expect this trend to continue in coming decades." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 429).     

加拿大人回发展与人回迁移

本文简析加拿大人口发展与人口迁移过程,以及人口迁移对加拿大人口增长、种族、语言构成、人口分布及未来人口增长的影响。     

Population geography

The author reviews recent changes in population research from a geographical perspective. "The deaths in 1990 of two of France's most distinguished demographers, Alfred Sauvy (1899-1990) and Jean Bourgeois-Pichat (1912-90)...seem an appropriate starting point from which to review progress in population research in the early 1990s....Relative to the lifespans and works of Bourgeois-Pichat and Sauvy, it is possible to discern progress in population studies as a whole and population geography in particular. Advances in technical aspects of measuring mortality, fertility and migration have been most marked, as have attempts to inter-relate these demographic processes. Progress towards explanation of population-related phenomena has been slower. Advances have not been towards building more sophisticated general theories, but towards new and more insightful forms of explanation." The author then summarizes other research literature on fertility, migration, and population subgroups. The geographical scope is worldwide.     

METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, 1966–1982

This paper discusses broad population movements within and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions in Canada during the recent past. It is based on an annual series of aggregate migration at the metropolitan level. Three complementary approaches are used in order to distill information from this vast array of interregional flows. The first is based on net migration. The second, disequilibrium analysis, is based on the difference between the observed population shares of regions and a set of calculated steady-state population shares which would result if the currently observed set of interregional migration rates remained constant. Both approaches indicate short-term effects of migration on the evolving pattern of regional growth and decline. The third approach, based on aggregate interregional flows, allows one to observe some changes in migration behaviour which are not made evident by the first two approaches.     

城镇化的新形式与中国的人口城镇化政策

本文从三个方面讨论了发展中国家城镇化进程不同于发达国家相应发展阶段的特点及由此产生的新的城镇化形式对我国城镇化政策的影响,分析了上述城镇化的新特点和新形式在我国人口迁移和城镇化政策上的意义,认为相关研究和方针、政策的制定必须对上述新特点和新形式予以更多的关注。     

No Country for Old People: A Paleodemographic Analysis of Migration Dynamics in Early Andean States

In this paper, we present a paleodemographic interpretation of a complete mortuary population from the site of Rio Muerto (southern Peru) affiliated with the early Andean Tiwanaku state (A.D.500–1000). Although advances in biogeochemical paleomobility studies have revolutionized bioarchaeological approaches to certain aspects of migration, paleodemography continues to offer a valuable complementary perspective on migration and population dynamics. Notably, paleodemography, through reference to Uniformitarian age‐at‐death profiles, is uniquely equipped to identify age‐specific subgroups that are missing from the mortuary population. We argue that the marked absence of adult individuals in the M70B cemetery population is the result of the socially regulated movement of older adults or their remains from the state provinces back to the homeland. We suggest that the particular demographic composition of the Rio Muerto M70 cemetery population, when considered within its cultural context and compared to other available paleodemographic data, reveals potential patterns of adult return migration, and carries important implications for the political and social dynamics of early Andean state society. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rural Youth Migration Trends in Australia: an Overview of Recent Trends and Two Inland Case Studies

Much of what has been written on the topic of Australian rural youth migration trends and processes has often proceeded from data‐free, or data‐poor grounds. In this context, this paper analyses recent trends in youth (15 to 24 years of age) migration for a temporally‐consistent set of Statistical Divisions (SDs) in inland rural Australia, and for local government areas within the Northern Tablelands and Slopes and Ranges of northern New South Wales and the Western Australian Central Wheatbelt. The paper finds that rates of youth loss from rural regions have increased over the past twenty years. Yet the patterns, processes, causes and impacts of rural youth migration are distributed in a spatially‐uneven fashion. Some remote areas are receiving net migration gains while booming ‘sea change’ coastal regions have experienced heavy losses. While the ‘flight to the bright city lights’ syndrome is evident, relatively high proportions of young people in the Northern SD of NSW move within their immediate region. Nevertheless, some common understandings concerning youth mobility were also confirmed. Gender differentials in migration propensity between women and men are evident even at quite local scales. Young people are also more likely to search out capital cities than the rest of the population. Most inland areas still continue to experience heavy losses of local youth. A more precise understanding of rural youth migration trends is an important stepping stone in the establishment of a reinvigorated research effort into young rural people's perspectives of their changing life chances in their home communities.     

Effects of commune-internal migration in Finland on the spatial distribution of population and on dwelling house utilization

"The article is based on a programme of research which has been pursued for some years with the purpose of describing the extent and spatial orientation of commune-internal migration [in Finland], a topic about which very little has previously been known, relating this form of migration to total population movement and to dwelling house requirements and utilization. The analysis yields information on the dynamics of population changes occurring in areas on the margins of permanent settlement, while at the same time taking into consideration the effects of regional and in particular housing policy decisions upon the spatial distribution of population."