中国城市人口集聚分布——基于空间效应的研究

城市人口集聚分布以及城市带的形成是一个空间现象,空间力量对其形成和演化具有重要影响。本文应用空间计量经济学与趋势面分析相结合方法,以617个县级以上城市1998年和2011年的城镇人口和经纬度坐标数据来研究中国城市人口空间集聚分布与趋势。研究发现,中国城市人口分布与其周围相邻城市的人口分布关系密切,并且其6阶空间自相关效应是最强的;同时地理位置对中国城市人口体系的空间分布和纵向形态形成具有显著影响。在空间自相关和空间位置相关的共同作用下,城市人口规模聚集区已在东部沿海地区形成。     

风险视角下的城市聚落形成模拟

幂次法则是普遍存在于自然科学和社会科学界的现象,而城市位序-规模法则是幂次法则在城市科学中的体现之一,然而特定城市规模分布一直缺乏完整的解释。本文尝试结合城市增长过程中土地开发行为的报酬递增规则与土地开发主体的风险认知行为,以城市增长的微观过程为切入视角模拟宏观城市聚落演化过程,进而探讨风险态度对城市聚落形态,尤其是对其规模分布的影响。研究结果表明：①即使城市聚落演化过程中存在多种风险态度,幂次法则在城市聚落的规模分布中仍保持着稳健性; ②现实世界中城市聚落规模分布的变异和稳定可能来自城市主体风险态度的多样性。     

THE EVOLUTION OF U.S. CITY SIZE DISTRIBUTION FROM A LONG‐TERM PERSPECTIVE (1900–2000)*

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the evolution of city size distribution in the United States throughout the twentieth century. It tests the validity of two empirical regularities studied in urban economics: Zipf's law (the rank‐size rule), and Gibrat's law, or the law of proportionate growth. The main contribution of this work is the use of a new database with information on all the cities (understood as incorporated places), without size restrictions. Our results enable us to confirm that Gibrat's law holds (weakly), and that Zipf's law holds only if the sample is sufficiently restricted at the top, not for a larger sample.     

An Empirical Enquiry into the Impact of Urban Planning Policy on Urban Growth

Recent research has stressed the need to evaluate the economic implications of urban planning policy. In this article, we present empirical evidence on the impact of this policy on the population growth of towns and cities. A simple theoretical model serves to highlight the mechanisms whereby this policy may affect urban growth. The model yields a reduced-form equation which we estimate for the towns and cities of Andalusia (Spain). The empirical model strongly supports the claim that urban planning policy considerably affects urban growth and thus, the distribution of population across space. Our results suggest that urban planning policy is contributing to the reduction of diseconomies of agglomeration in larger cities. On the negative side, we find that urban plans are subject to obsolescence, which slows down growth.     

湖南省市镇规模等级结构的动态研究

本文应用市镇人口规模分布理论,研究了湖南省城市人口规模分布结构的动态变化及其基本特征。同时构造了2000年湖南省市镇序秩--规模分布模型,并利用logistic函数对预测结果进行了验证。预测表明:2000年南省市镇人口、市镇化水平分别约为2174万和32%,特大城市和大城市将扩大为长沙、衡阳、湘潭、株洲、岳阳和常德六市。据此对2000年湖南省市镇等级体系进行了规划。     

Inclusive growth from an urban perspective: a challenge for the metropolis of the twenty-first century

This paper addresses the study of inclusive growth from an urban perspective. It proposes to focus the relationship between urban economic growth and income distribution in cities in which manufacturing production and external demand play a central role. Opposed to the literature that considers economic growth leads to an increase in inequality in income distribution, we present some operative economic tools from Marshallian Industrial Districts theory and from urban economic theory with which to develop an economic strategy for inclusive urban growth, making possible to achieve simultaneously economic growth and improvements in income distribution. An interesting example of a metropolis with a dynamic of economic and employment growth compatible with a reduction in income inequality is provided by Barcelona. This metropolis disposes a Survey of living conditions and habits of the population since 1986 that allows an analysis in terms of inclusive urban growth.     

基于分形理论的长株潭城市群等级规模结构研究及对策

运用城市群等级规模结构分形理论和方法,对长株潭"3+5"城市群(以下简称"3+5"城市群)的等级规模结构进行了实证研究,通过测算几年来"3+5"城市群等级规模分布的分维值,得出结论:"3+5"城市群规模分布符合分形特征;模型拟合认为其人口、经济分布的分维值均大于1,表明"3+5"城市群等级规模结构集中,已处于发展的相对成熟阶段。为此在对这些特征做出解释的基础上,认为可从强化首位城市、加快长株潭一体化建设、提升次中心城市、重点发展中小城市、加快小城镇建设等方面着手对长株潭城市群等级规模结构进行优化。     

The urbanisation of Java, 2000–2010: towards ‘the island of mega-urban regions’

The mega-urbanisation process in Java is reflected in the spatial patterns of urban population growth between 2000 and 2010, although there has been a small deceleration in the rate of growth recently. This process is also clearly indicated in the significant increase in the number of urban localities, which reflects in situ urbanisation and rural–urban transformation in Java. Most districts and cities located adjacent to large cities experienced much higher population growth rates, compared to the core areas in cities. The formation of urban belts with a mix of economic activities connecting large cities is greatly expanding, while the small and medium cities, those with population sizes between 100,000 to one million, have tended to stagnate as their role and functions as centres of socio-economic activities are taken over by the large cities. Java’s mega-urbanisation appears unstoppable, and is largely uncontrolled at the present time. It is a daunting challenge for the central and local governments to manage the spatial urban growth in Java in the near future.     

中国城市化水平的综合判断

在测度和评价城市化水平高低时应该对人口城市化水平和城市人口绝对规模进行综合判断。学界通常用市区非农业人口口径来计算城市化水平,对城市外来人口考虑不够。对这种偏小的口径进行修正后发现中国的城市化水平至多略低于同等收入下的国际城市化水平。从城市人口与城市经济的适应程度看,中国的城市劳动生产率与发展状况类似的国家相比有偏低的倾向。因此,与流行的看法相反,中国的城市化水平与经济发展相适应的。笔者认为中国城市的存量部分已经"人满为患",未来城市化的着力点应是城市的增量部分,包括现有城市规模的扩大和新城市的设置。应进行户籍制度、土地制度、创业制度等制度创新,为城市发展提供宽松的外部环境。     

东北地区城市规模分布的分形特征

本文借助Zipf公式考察了东北地区(1994)城市规模分布的分形几何特征,发现辽宁省城市规模分布具有双分形结构,吉林省城市规模分布具有单分形结构,而黑龙江省城市规模分布则具有局部分形结构,整个东北地区的城市规模分布呈现局部分形图式,但显示出双分形迹象。文章得出了一些重要的理论结论,并为东北三省的城市体系等级结构优化提出了若干建议。     

TYPES OF URBANIZATION IN THE USSR

A typology of urbanization is developed for the 163 major civil divisions of the USSR on the basis of three factors: (a) an index of the level of urbanization (incorporating the percentage of urban population, the share of cities of 100,000 or more in urban population, an index of urban agglomerations, and a coefficient adjusting for the density of urban population); (b) the structural complexity of urbanization (which is treated as deriving either solely from the urban population percentage in the simplest case; or from the urban population percentage and the share of large cities in a two-element case, or additionally from the presence of urban agglomerations in the three-element case); (c) the dominance of any of the three structural elements. The typology yields 24 combinations of the three factors out of a theoretically possible total of 54 combinations, some combinations being represented only by one or two examples. The typology is conceptualized as a mobile system in which particular major civil divisions may advance to higher levels as urbanization processes continue.     

东部地区流动人口城市融入的比较研究

以东部地区城市特色比较明显的6个城市的问卷调查为基础,结合中国的实际情况构建了衡量流动人口城市融入的指标体系,通过主成分分析对6个城市流动人口的城市融入程度进行了比较。研究发现6个城市流动人口融入程度存在着明显的差异,环渤海的青岛和沈阳流动人口的城市融入程度最高,而珠江三角洲地区的东莞和长三角的温州流动人口的城市融入程度最低,介于两者之间的是长江三角洲地区的无锡和京津冀地区的北京。总体而言,北方城市流动人口的融入程度总体上要高于南方城市。流动人口城市融入程度的差异反映了城市特色或性质的不同。城市规模、城市所在区域的文化特色、城市经济特征、流动人口在总人口中的比例都是影响城市融入的重要因素。对于南北方流动人口城市融入的差异,方言具有很大的影响,推广普通话有利于流动人口的城市融入。     

中国城市流动人口的空间结构

利用中国公安部1996年流动人口统计数据,采用空间统计分析方法和断裂点法,对中国城市流动人口的空间结构进行研究发现,中国城市流动人口主要集中在沿海地带,而且客观存在着三大城市流动人口圈:①京津连流动人口圈。为中国第三大的城市流动人口圈,具有性别比高、来自圈外的流动人口比重大、以亲缘、地缘为纽带聚居等特点。②沪宁杭流动人口圈。为中国第二大的城市流动人口圈,具有来自省内的流动人口比重高、暂住时间差距大等特点。③广深厦流动人口圈。为中国最大的城市流动人口圈,具有女性流动人口比重高、来自外省的流动人口比重大等特点。     

中国城市职能结构的特征研究

本文利用1999年的城市数据库和纳尔逊分类方法分析了我国城市职能的基本特征,对各行业的就业频率分布曲线进行了分析,并比较了不同城市规模、不同地域城市职能差异,认为我国城市工业职能较强,就业比重较大;城市工业专业分工程度较低;我国城市职能随城市规模变化出现一定变化规律,建筑业比重随城市规模的增大而减小,科教文卫等服务业随着规模的增大而增大;我国城市职能结构表现在空间上的差异是东部城市工业职能较强,西部城市行政、科教等服务业就业比重较高。     

吉林省城市体系等级规模结构研究

等级规模结构是城市体系的三大结构之一,其特征可以反映出城市在不同规模层次中的分布状况及城市人口集中或分散的程度,有助于认识城市体系发展所处的阶段。通过统计数据计算分析,运用分形理论,发现吉林省城市体系等级规模结构满足位序-规模分布规律,城市规模分布的均衡程度较高,中小城市比较发育,首位城市垄断作用不突出,缺乏大城市。在吉林省城市体系动态变化过程中,等级规模结构相对稳定且不断趋于集中。在此基础上提出重点培育通化、延吉等大城市;继续扩大长春规模,发挥整体效益;加强交通网络建设;加快矿业城市可持续发展等建议。     

城市收缩现象、过程与问题

城市并不总是增长。在人口峰值过去后人口收缩将是部分城市面临的一个不可避免的趋势。这将是我国和全球城市发展的新议题。根据国际上的最新进展,阐释了收缩城市的概念、起源和影响因素,描述了城市收缩的过程及表现,介绍了国外城市的应对措施;指出国内研究主要还集中于资源型城市的衰退方向;强调城市收缩作为客观的城市发展过程,具有不可避免性,也有别于城市衰退,需要更加客观科学地对待。初步介绍和探讨了国外城市在人口减少时采取的城市规划和管理方法,包括如何通过公众参与、产业转型生态环境保护、土地利用规划调整和交通住房改造等措施,来促进城市发展和提高居民生活质量,为我国的城市发展和转型提供有益启示。     

Built environment and tourism as road safety determinants in Benidorm (Spain)

The rise in the number of urban road accidents is a challenge shared by all European cities, which seek to improve mobility while reducing transport problems. In recent years, urban road accidents in Spain have been constantly increasing and now account for a larger share of the total number of road accidents. This paper aims to analyse the impact of urban factors on road accidents. For this purpose, a small-scale analysis of land use and road infrastructure has been conducted in the town of Benidorm, one of the main tourist destinations in Spain. In addition, a regression analysis has been carried out using a Negative Binomial distribution. The results show that factors such as the level of mixed land uses, population density and road infrastructure are related to urban road accidents. The findings also reveal that tourism environments have a positive impact on pedestrian road safety. Small-scale analyses, particularly those related to exclusively-oriented environments, such as tourism developments, should be studied in detail in order to promote safety, liveability and sustainability in our cities.     

Urban Restructuring of Istanbul

After 1980s, the major cities of Turkey have experienced urban transformation process following the changes in the international trade policy and the impact of globalization. Istanbul took the highest amount of share from these transformation processes as being the most important economic, cultural and tourism centre and the most integrated centre to the world economy of the country. This paper describes Istanbul's historical development, investigates demographic profile and spatial distribution of employment and illustrates multi-centre development of the city. Decentralization of population and jobs illustrate the multi-centre development. Multi-centre development contributes to sustainable urban development which provides efficient energy use and prevents pollution. Istanbul having a long history, large population and being in a very strategic location between Asia and Europe greatly effected from globalization which is reflected in its transformation of urban structure and increased land values and thus offered great opportunities for the real estate investors. The role of Istanbul within the world hierarchy of cities is suggested for further research.     

The Dynamics of Growth in a Regional Urban System: Southern Ontario, 1851–1971

This study has four objectives: (1) to describe the dynamics of growth in the urban system of southern Ontario over the period from 1851 to 1971; (2) to determine whether this system has evolved in accordance with the Gibrat process of growth; (3) to contribute to the debate on the relationship between city-size distributions and economic development; and (4) to offer some technical and definitional suggestions with regard to the rank-size rule, urban primacy, and the measurement of population concentration. Related Canadian studies covering similar time periods are those of Simmons (1974), who has analysed the growth of larger cities (10,000 and over) at the national scale, and Bannister (1975), who has described the extent of spatial autocorrelation in the growth rates of southern Ontario's incorporated centres. Like Simmons and Bannister we are less concerned with the fortunes of particular places than with the response of the urban system as a whole to expansionary forces. We are centrally concerned with the phenomenon of differential growth (Borchert, 1967; Ward, 1971, pp. 11–49; Muller, 1976, 1977). The fact that towns grow at different rates implies changes in the frequency distribution of city size and in the level of concentration of the urban population. These changes, in turn, have interesting consequences for urban systems theory.     

江苏省流动人口分布的格局演变及其驱动因素——基于城乡建设用地的探讨

基于乡镇单元人口普查数据以及相应年份的城乡建设用地数据,运用空间分析和统计分析方法,尝试分析城镇-农村尺度江苏省流动人口分布格局的时空演变特征,并揭示驱动人口流动的动力机制。结果表明：①规模分布特征是具有较长大值右尾部的正偏分布,总体的集聚趋势增强,城镇和乡村集聚流动人口差距变大;②空间呈现高值集聚特征,热点区主要集中在长江以南的城镇,沿江地区流动人口高密度区域逐渐连绵化;③增长变化呈现长江以北地区城镇的流入人口增加、农村的输出人口减少,以及长江以南地区城镇的流入人口快速增加、农村的流入人口普遍增加的特征;④经济发展水平差异、乡镇企业繁荣、交通可达和政策导向是影响江苏省流动人口集聚的四大动力。