Speech Cycle? ‘Election-Defining Rhetoric’ in Westminster Democracies

Leaders of government within Westminster democracies undertake a key rhetorical task on the day an election is called. Following a visit to the monarch or the vice-regal representative, leaders emerge to give their opening speech of the election campaign. These are moments of definition; moments when leaders rhetorically frame the battle to come. This paper argues that in Westminster democratic systems, these statements conform to a set pattern of rhetoric, which reflects the length of time the government has been in office. This pattern – or ‘speech cycle’– suggests that electoral rhetoric is not governed solely by the policy issues of the day, and that some restraints apply to governments in the rhetoric they can legitimately utilise at different points in their tenure.     

‘My Lord Sue’: Lady Susan Keck and the Great Oxfordshire Election of 1754

As one of the most memorable campaigners for the New Interest whigs in the Oxfordshire election of 1754, Lady Susan Keck inevitably became the subject of press ridicule and criticism. Undaunted and irrepressible, she not only continued to campaign, but also turned the criticism back on the Old Interest, effectively neutralising it. This detailed examination of Lady Susan's electioneering illustrates the possibilities for electoral involvement at mid‐century that were available to a woman of rank and spirit who was determined to make a difference. Propelled into action by sheer frustration with the poor planning and lacklustre campaigning that had marked the New Interest campaign in the 1751 election, Lady Susan put her, not inconsiderable, energy into securing a victory for the New Interest. Driven by ideology rather than by family interests, she used her age, rank, sex and connections, to political advantage. Confident and characterful, she was ideally suited to the rumbustious, personal politics of the age. Most importantly, her canvassing achieved results and the eventual New Interest victory owed, at least in part, to her efforts.     

The man who never was? The Italian transition and 2008 election

Abstract

The implications for the co-called Italian transition of the 2008 election initially seemed significant – but have since become increasingly uncertain as Berlusconi's conflict of interests has risen higher up the political agenda. This underscores the pertinence of asking about the sense in which the notion of ‘transition’ is actually applicable to the Italian case at all – bearing in mind that it describes a process now supposedly underway for some 17 years; and bearing in mind that its end point can seemingly not be identified (though by definition ‘transition’ implies movement between two points). Discovering if the term applies to the Italian case and if so whether 2008 has brought its conclusion nearer requires exploring if the political protagonists that have emerged from the election as the most significant players – the Popolo della Libertà and the Partito Democratico – have sufficient commonality of view, sufficient desire and sufficient power to complete a process of constitutional overhaul. The evidence suggests that while they have the view and the desire, there are significant limitations on their power. The election might potentially have been a watershed in the so-called Italian transition in the broader sense of system performance, aside from formal constitutional change. Here too, however, the evidence points away from the idea that 2008 represents a real sea change – though the chances seem good that it will come to be perceived as such.     

民初第一次国会选举竞选活动研究

民初国会选举是中国历史上第一次非暴力方式的政权角逐.以国民党、共和党为代表的各个政党采取了各种各样的竞选方式和竞选策略,其中有暴力、行政作弊等恶性的方式,有舆论斗争、金钱作用等中性的方式,也有公开演说、政党组织、法律诉讼等良性的方式,虽然有很多缺点,但总体来说这是一次具有合法性的选举.民主制度需要深层的现代政治文化为依托,从传统"一元文化"到现代"多元文化"需要一个长期的转化过程,竞选中暴露出的政治文化缺陷预示了在中国建立民主制度的道路必定曲折艰辛.     

Politics and social violence in developing democracies: Theory and evidence from Brazil

How do the political institutional features of developing democracies influence how violence occurs? Building on research showing that ‘hybrid democracies’ are more prone to social violence, this article argues that elite competition for power in the context of limited institutional oversight plays an important role in explaining violence. The framework here presents possible mechanisms linking subnational political dynamics and rates of social violence in poorly institutionalised contexts. It highlights how political competition, concentrated political power, and constraints on cooperation can create opportunity structures where violence is incentivised and the rule of law is undermined. This is examined empirically using sub-national homicide data from over 5000 Brazilian municipalities between 1997 and 2010. Findings suggest violence is greater in contexts that are highly competitive – where political actors face credible challenges and have a more tenuous grip on power – and those where power is highly concentrated – where political actors have held power for longer periods or face limited credible challenges. Findings also suggest violence varies depending on whether interactions between state and municipal government are likely to be constrained or cooperative; and are consistent with literatures emphasising the importance of structural explanations of social violence. In light of on-going democratic transitions across the globe, the article highlights the value of understanding links between institutional context, contentious politics and social violence.     

Strong Bar,Weak State? Lawyers,Liberalism and State Formation in Zambia

Members of the legal profession exercise potent, though largely hidden, influence on political processes in modern societies. This is taken for granted with respect to established democracies but the political agency of lawyers remains a largely unstudied phenomenon in post‐colonial Africa. This contribution interrogates the role of Zambian lawyers and their Law Association in recent political developments in that country. The central focus of the article is on the Oasis Forum, a unique coalition of lawyers, clergy and feminists that blocked the incumbent president's unconstitutional bid for a third term in office in 2001. The article examines the rising importance of legal process and discourse in the political realm and reflects on the significance of an increasingly aggressive ideology of legalism for state formation in Zambia.     

The Pluralist Paradox: The Decline of Economic Interest Groups in Zambia in the 1990s

New democracies attempting to implement political and economic reform simultaneously are considered to face a dilemma, as democratization may undermine economic reform by encouraging political participation and empowering interest groups that are unlikely to benefit from reform. This article compares relations between interest groups and the government under one‐party and multiparty rule in Zambia. Contrary to the assumptions of pluralist theory, the article argues that the influence of interest groups declined as a result of political and economic liberalization. Political liberalization in Zambia has so far resulted in a proliferation of civic associations and a weakening of corporatist links between the state and economic interest groups that had been granted some real influence in the previous authoritarian regime. This ‘pluralist paradox’ has meant, at least in the initial phases of multiparty rule, that interest group resistance has not constituted a significant threat to the sustainability of the reform programme, or to the electoral prospects of the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD).     

Beverley,Inderauuda and St John: A Neglected Reference

Abstract

This article examines the 1852 Sunderland election campaign as an example of a borough election in the fluid political situation of the 1850s. It seeks to demonstrate the complex interaction of national and local issues, influence, personalities and personal interests in the context of the town's previous electoral history, and the influence that memories of incidents in previous campaigns exerted on the contest. It argues that it was, and was perceived by contemporaries to be, primarily a contest between interests within the Liberal party rather than one between Conservatives and Liberals. The article seeks to identify the problems this presented in the management of the election and the tactics and means employed in the presentation of the campaigns to the public, particularly in the use made of local newspapers. The bitterness of the contest and the volume of, at times contradictory, evidence that has survived allow for a more detailed examination than is possible for many elections of this period, enabling at least some insight to be gained into the complexity of the underlying manoeuvres and the shifting motives and loyalties of the participants. The article concludes by examining briefly the results of the election but acknowledges the difficulties of attempting to go beyond the contest and its result to reach any detailed understanding of voters' motivations.     

The West's moral and political crisis

The West is in the grip of a moral panic with unforeseeable political consequences. After four decades of neoliberalism, cracks are beginning to appear in the form of nationalist challenges from the right and a youthful insurrection from the left, both frequently described as ‘populist’ by establishment figures. The Faustian compact made with finance capital by the traditional parties of the centre‐left in the 1990s now leaves them on the verge of extinction. The underlying conditions for this disarray are a massive demographic shift at the global level which will see Asians and Africans with over four‐fifths of the world's population in 2100. This editorial briefly reviews the Cold War and the transformations that have occurred since. A world revolution after 1945 was overthrown by a counter‐revolution in 1979–1980 which is itself under threat now. The American Empire is sustained by mercantilism, militarism, the world currency, intellectual property and the Internet economy. Free markets are just an ideological fig leaf for this. The editorial concludes with a review of recent political events in the US, France and Britain: Trump's presidency, Macron's improbable rise and Corbyn's surge in May's snap election. In Britain's case, the terrorist attacks, hung parliament and Grenfell Tower fire constitute a perfect storm that could sink the British political right.     

Institutionalizing the democratic party-state: political parties as ‘public utilities’ in Italy and West Germany, 1945–75

This article argues that the rise of parties as ‘public utilities’, that is, semi-state organs crucial in the functioning of democracy, which is currently observed by political scientists, has long historical roots. It looks from an institutionalist perspective to the development of party–state relations in Germany and Italy since the Second World War, paying specific attention to how institutional reform corresponded to changing normative assumptions about the position of political parties in twentieth-century democracy. The first notions on the ‘statist’ dimension of parties were put forward as an answer to the challenges of mass politics in the interwar era. After 1945, politicians and constitutional judges drew upon this tradition in their efforts to stabilize mass democracy. They deliberately constructed ‘party-state democracies’, in which parties influenced the state and the state managed individual parties and the party system. This became visible in the constitutionalization of political parties, as well as in the enactment and normative justification of party (finance) laws in the 1960s and 1970s. The advent of parties as public utilities, even though fiercely criticized today, was therefore embedded in an ideological tradition that sanctioned the ‘party-state’ as crucial for the stability of modern democracy.     

奉天省第一届国会议员选举析论

民初国会议员的选举是国家权力机关的选举,是真正具有资产阶级民主制度意义的选举,因此,它具有开创性的意义。从奉天省的选举来看,虽然有各种问题存在,但基本上是按照法定程序进行的。在选举过程中出现的问题,被揭示出来后,有的经过协调,重新举行选举,有的进入诉讼程序,具备了一定的公开性。通过国会议员选举这个平台,各个政党进行了多种多样的竞选活动,使民初政坛首次出现了多样的政治声音。从奉天省第一届国会议员选举的实际过程来看,基本上体现了现代选举制度的法制化、公开化、规范化原则。但我们也看到,这次选举中所表现出来的选民占人口比例过低、选民漏登记、选举管理疏漏、竞选失范等等问题,都说明中国的选举制度还仅仅是一个开始,还有很长的路要走。     

Battle over the box: international election observation missions, political competition and retrenchment in the post-Soviet space

The organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's international election observation missions (OSCE IEOMs) have fuelled a new political competition in the post-Soviet space. Even if previously largely ignored, OSCE evaluations have highlighted diff erences in political values between the West and several post-Soviet republics. Recently, however, they have gained political, and even strategic, importance in the region by contributing to political change in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. IEOMs have also provoked resistance from several post-Soviet governments. This has taken several forms, including contesting the apparent western terms of democratization and the creation of alternative rules and practices for democratization and election observation. These challenges risk corrupting the whole practice of IEOMs, and the OSCE has sought to respond. IEOMs have also contributed to changes in Russian foreign policy, including its policy towards the OSCE. In addition, attitudes towards IEOMs within some post-Soviet governments are adding to evidence of a deepening divide between non-democratizing polities and the West.     

How Would Jesus Vote? The Churches and the Election of the Rudd Government

The Coalition's clear victory over Labor at the 2004 federal election after prominent campaigning by conservative church-based groups – along with the election to the Senate of a member of the Family First party – seemed to many commentators to confirm the growing power of a ‘Religious Right’ in Australia. This paper argues that two features of the 2007 federal election campaign are impossible to square with the rise of the Religious Right thesis. First, Labor won in 2007 without shifting its leadership, policies or electoral strategy to suit the Christian Right. Second, the contributions of church groups to the 2007 election campaign were not dominated by a single perspective but covered a wide range of issues and expressed competing views on key policy issues. This pluralism allowed Kevin Rudd, the Labor Party and even the Greens room to present themselves favourably to significant groups of Christian voters. The 2007 election suggests that, rather than being dominated by a hegemonic Christian Right, church involvement in Australian electoral politics is pluralistic in character.     

Patronage,Power and Politics in Appleby in the Era of Lady Anne Clifford 1649–1689

Abstract

'The Electoral Management of the Yorkshire Election of 1784'. In the general election of 1784 the Fitzwilliam Whig candidates for Yorkshire declined the poll the night preceding the county election and conceded victory to the pro-Pitt nominees who received organisational support from the Yorkshire Association. This paper uses the Yorkshire county election to provide a detailed case study of electoral organisation and management. It outlines the national and regional political contexts of the election and examines the political and religious prejudices of the protagonists. Furthermore, it details the costs involved and explores the logistics of bringing the enfranchised freeholders, in England's largest constituency, to poll. This paper compares the organisations set up by both sides to direct the election, demonstrating the increasingly professional approach taken by election committees towards the end of the eighteenth century. It demonstrates how in this election the experienced and near-professional committee established by the Yorkshire Association overwhelmed the amateur committee of aristocrats convened by the Earl Fitzwilliam, prompting the latter to make significant changes to his electoral organisation and electioneering strategy for future elections.     

Political Dynasties in Thailand: The Recent Picture after the 2011 General Election

This article seeks to understand the patterns of family-based politics in Thailand’s 2011 House of Representatives election. The key question is whether the political dynasty, a sequence of political leaders who are considered members of the same family, is still a determining factor in Thai elections, and if so, to what extent compared to the past. Drawing on a rich set of data collected from election results between 1979 and 2011, this article argues that the political roles and influences of many political dynasties have become more complicated and have tended to increase, although some have experienced defeat in elections. The article finds that while belonging to a political dynasty could give new dynastic faces a better chance of winning a House election in their constituency than their non-dynastic counterparts, the most influential factor for electoral candidates in winning a House of Representatives election is belonging to the Pheu Thai Party or the Democrat Party. This article thus suggests that one of the best ways to avoid the monopoly of one or a few political families in Thai politics is to empower and support party members and eligible voters to meaningfully engage in political parties’ affairs and activities.     

Election Administration Reform and State Choice: Voter Identification Requirements and HAVA

This research examines factors that have influenced state choices about methods of voter identification practices in the current environment of election administration reform. State voter identification practices have been an active area of state policy action since 2000. Rival explanations for state adoption of voter identification requirements are analyzed for three national election cycles following the 2000 presidential election. State voter identification practices are classified according to levels of relative stringency and in terms of variation from federal requirements for voter identification under the Help America Vote Act of 2002. State decisions to adopt more stringent forms of voter identification are significantly influenced by intrastate factors including Republican Party control of state government, traditionalist state political culture, and greater levels of racial/ethnic diversity. Federal review of election practices under the Voting Rights Act is positively associated with more moderate approaches to voter identification but is not significant over this time period.     

Young people,place and devolved politics: perceived scale(s) of political concerns among under 18s living in Wales

Despite clear linkages between conceptualisations and perceptions of politics, society, culture and territorial rescaling, research into young people’s political engagement, participation and representation is underrepresented in the field of social and cultural geography. Here the gap is addressed using perceptions of devolved politics, as a form of territorial rescaling, among young people living in Wales. Specifically, it shows the geographical scales at which young people locate their political concerns and where responsibility for these concerns is perceived to lie, with a focus on the National Assembly for Wales and the Welsh Government. This is a key contribution to our understanding of the role devolution plays in youth political engagement in the light of the following: the relative infancy of the devolved U.K. institutions; their asymmetrical development and increasing divergences; the growing variation in turnout among young people for different types of election and referenda; and the lack of research examining the youth engagement dimension of Welsh devolution as a political, social and cultural process of territorial rescaling in the U.K. The paper concludes with a critique of the notion that devolution poses a ‘politics of hope’ for youth political engagement in Wales, a very different picture to Scotland.     

Legitimising war in a changing media landscape

The media landscape is undergoing a period of radical transformation, characterised by the decline of the traditional media and the rise of digital new media. This article is concerned with the impact these changes are having on political violence and liberal democracies. The article argues that the emergence of citizen journalism and the decline of traditional journalism signals a dangerous deficit in accountability structures in liberal democracies.     

The Electoral Politics of Economic Reform in Australia: The 1998 Election

Like many other advanced industrial democracies, Australia has experienced major and ongoing economic reform over the last two decades, the pace of which has, if anything, increased since the election of the Liberal‐National government in 1996. These developments have led to a growing sense of economic insecurity among many voters. Many of these concerns were focused on the 1998 election, when the Liberal‐National Coalition advocated the introduction of a goods and services tax. This paper uses the 1998 Australian Election Study (AES) survey to examine the impact of economic evaluations, economic insecurity and economic issues on voting in the election. The results demonstrate the existence of widespread economic concerns across the electorate, but that the Coalition gained a marginal electoral advantage on the tax reform issue. Economic issues were also a cause of defection to the new One Nation Party, although further analysis reveals that its support was motivated more by race and ethnic concerns than by economic discontent.     

A decline of ‘friends and neighbours voting’ in Ireland? Local candidate effects in the 2011 Irish ‘earthquake election'

‘Friends and neighbours voting’, that is, the propensity of voters to support local candidates, is a characteristic of a number of contemporary democracies. The Republic of Ireland is one of the settings where this phenomenon has been explained and documented very comprehensively. In this paper, we study local candidate effects in the most recent Irish general election, held in 2011. We show that during this unusually volatile election, fought in the shadow of an EU/IMF ‘bailout’, ‘friends and neighbours voting’ persisted but was attenuated in comparison to what has been observed in the past. This was most pronounced in the case of the historically dominant party – Fianna Fáil – and (in a weaker form) for its all-time rival – Fine Gael. We describe the changing electoral strength of these two and other Irish parties in terms of fluctuating local candidate effects.