俄罗斯西伯利亚人口状况及其地理分析

西伯利亚人口问题一直非常尖锐,20世纪90年代以来更有不断恶化趋势。基于1989年和2002年俄罗斯人口普查资料,对西伯利亚人口状况及其动态变化进行了分析,得出了一些重要结论:1989-2002年间西伯利亚人口减少了95.9万,减少幅度达3.7%,远高于全俄1.5%的平均减幅;出生率降低、死亡率提高和人口大量迁移导致多数城市和区域人口持续减少,劳动力短缺问题日趋严重,制约了地区经济的发展;实现人口自然增长、调节人口迁移、引进合法移民乃西伯利亚人口和经济社会发展的当务之急。     

当前俄罗斯人口地理变动的新特点

俄罗斯是一个地广人稀的国家。在20世纪90年代世界性人口增长的大背景下,人口持续减少,已成为影响国家发展和民族生存的重大问题,特别是其人口的发展显示出有悖于世界人口增长普遍规律的一些特征,非常值得探讨和研究。本文在对俄罗斯人口的增长、结构、分布和城市化发展特点等四个方面进行全面分析的基础上,探讨了俄罗斯人口危机产生的经济、社会和文化原因。指出解决俄罗斯人口问题的当务之急是加快发展经济,全面提高人口的生存环境质量。     

An alternative policy approach to rural development in regions facing population decline

ABSTRACT

Many rural regions in Europe used to be characterized by weak economic performance and negative population development. While in a long-term perspective this is not any more valid for large parts of Western Europe, a number of rural regions face persistent population decline. By analysing the case of Austria, where approximately one-third of rural areas have experienced such negative population change over the past decades, this paper will examine the impact on economic performance, income levels and well-being patterns. Addressing the crucial and persistent obstacles to positive population trends, new theoretical approaches and perspectives are discussed for overcoming limitations in development. Future approaches for regional development have to go beyond strategies for targeting economic growth, but have to address issues of local participation, social innovation and establishing trust as preconditions to effectively impact well-being dimensions. Such a mobilization effort would be the result of a comprehensive social transition process which would foster an altered narrative for these rural regions compared to the current and predominant focus on compensation and growth policies. Despite strong interlinkages with other regions and actors, the needs of local people would be central and both would be a cornerstone for social innovation.     

The dejuvenation of the Italian population

Abstract

In recent decades, a process of structural reduction of the weight of new generations in overall population (dejuvenation) has been observed. In Italy, this process started in the 1970s and accelerated in the 1990s. We present here its main consequences for Italian society and economy. The number of Italian young people (aged 0–29) was reduced from 24.5 million in 1951 (51.6% of the population) to 17.5 million in 2016 (28.8%). What is more, many young Italians are becoming a wasted resource and a social cost, facing high rates of unemployment, long economic dependence on the family of origin, renunciation of full achievement of their life plans, distrust of institutions, low social and political participation, and increasing emigration flow. We analyze, using multivariate models, the data of the Rapporto Giovani survey held by the Toniolo Institute in 2015. Our main finding is that generational disadvantages not only hamper economic growth but, in a familistic context, also exacerbate social inequalities.     

Balloon measurements of stratospheric ion conductivities over the tropics

Conductivity measurements of negative and positive ions were made from about 20 to 35 km by two identical balloon-borne spherical probes at Hyderabad (17.5°N, 78.6°E), India on 22 April 1989 and 22 December 1990. One balloon was launched at 0158 h IST (Indian Standard Time) which reached its ceiling around 0330 h IST. After that time, it floated for about 3 h, 1.5 h before sunrise and 1.5 h after sunrise. Thus it gave data for both day- and night-time conditions at float altitude. The other balloon was launched at 0535 h IST. It gave data for daytime only. Several interesting results have been obtained at the float altitudes. During the night, in the flight of 22 April 1989 the conductivity values of positive ions were found to be about 1.5 times those of negative ions at the float altitude. During the day, in the flight of 22 April 1989, the positive ion conductivity values were found to increase with the increase of solar elevation angle at around 37.5 km altitude. The negative ion conductivity values, however, did not show any day-night variation. In the flight of 22 December 1990, these features were not seen. Instead, a pocket was found where conductivity values were very high (of the order of 10⁻¹¹ mho m⁻¹) at an altitude of about 32.5 km. Also in this flight, the positive ion conductivity was always found to be approximately equal to that of the negative ion conductivity.     

Regional Distribution of the Muslim Population of Russia

Drawing on the results of the 2002 population census in Russia, an American geographer examines the size and spatial distribution of ethnic groups classified as Muslim. Methods of classification and issues with enumerating the Muslim population and changes since the 1989 census are described and analyzed. Considerable attention is paid to the implications of such a large and territorially concentrated Muslim population under conditions in the post- Soviet era. Demographic, social, and economic differences between Muslims and the rest of the population of Russia are examined. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: I00, J10, O18. 2 figures, 6 tables, 53 references.     

State policy and urban employment of refugees: The Greek case (1923–30)

The case of the Greek-Orthodox refugees transferred to Greece after 1923 is unique: it was the first obligatory exchange of populations in world history. Whereas the overwhelming majority of studies published on this issue deal with its political, rural or economic aspects, this paper attempts to explore the field of urban refugee employment. The primary question investigated is how a poor, war-weary country with a population barely over 5,000,000 managed to provide urban employment for 1,221,489 refugees, without its social fabric falling apart.     

中国城市贫困的基本特点与脱贫模式探讨

本文通过城市贫困家庭的收入情况、消费情况、社交情况以及城市贫困的社区分布分析中国城市贫困的基本特点。提出三条形成城市贫困的相互影响的机制链条,即由于产业结构调整和经济体制的转轨、社会保障不完善和政府财政实力较弱以及人力资本偏低和市场需求高三方面引发城市贫困。并构建了城市贫困脱贫模式,分析了脱贫过程以及将"内外结合、标本兼治"作为脱贫模式的核心。得出了四个解决措施:一是加强政府反贫困建设,完善社会保障体系;二是提高贫困主体自身素质,强化脱贫意识;三是积极推进再就业工作,完善再就业服务;四是发展非政府组织的扶贫事业,拓宽救助渠道。     

Increasing inequality in Chalcolithic Southeast Europe: the case of Durankulak

Economic measurement tools allow a quantification of social differences not only for modern societies, but also for prehistoric communities. The use of Gini indices and Lorenz curves for the much discussed Chalcolithic cemetery of Durankulak (Bulgaria) indicates an average increase in material items from 5000 cal BC onwards and a tendency of these items to be distributed somewhat more equally. Towards the end of the Chalcolithic sequence, however, strongly growing inequality was associated with lower average welfare. The steep increase in social inequality might be one of the main reasons for the collapse of Chalcolithic societies around 4100 cal BC in Durankulak, but also in other South East European regions.     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.     

1949～1976年河北省际人口迁移与社会结构变动

1949年10月到1976年12月的河北省际人口迁移,大体可划分为三个阶段:1949～1959年累计净迁入120多万人;1960～1967年因经济困难导致人口大量外流至北京、天津、内蒙古及东北各省市,累计净迁出160多万人;1968～1976年累计净迁入60多万人。河北省际人口的迁移受社会经济发展的影响,显示出不同时期社会经济的特点,同时也影响着人口数量的变化、人口的再分布以及社会经济生活的各个领域。省际人口迁移对河北省社会结构变动产生了积极影响,也留下一些值得吸取的经验教训。     

Squeezed between external trade barriers and internal economic problems: Bulgaria’s trade with Denmark in the 1970s

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates Bulgaria’s trade strategy towards the European Economic Community (EEC) in the 1970s: a decade of intensified economic exchange between East and West thanks to détente and, simultaneously, of growing trade barriers due to the consolidation of the EEC’s Common Market. The successes and failures of Bulgaria’s endeavours are discussed through a study of economic cooperation with Denmark before and after its accession to the EEC in 1973. The main argument is that while Bulgarian economic policy focused on the rising regulatory impediments to trade with EEC members, it neglected the structural deficiencies of Bulgarian export production. Thereby, Bulgarian state officials strove to resolve foreign trade problems through diplomatic negotiations over customs regulations instead of advancing domestic economic reforms . This argument is supported by analysis of intergovernmental economic negotiations and trade deals between Bulgaria and Denmark during the 1970s. It highlights the different ways in which Bulgarian trade envoys in Copenhagen and top officials at home evaluated recurrent problems in accessing the Danish market and formulated solutions for these problems. Thus, instead of tackling internal structural problems, the blueprints for Bulgaria’s foreign trade focused on external foes, namely trade discrimination against socialist countries.     

RECENT CHANGES IN THE SIZES OF SIBERIAN CITIES

The author, comparing growth histories of East and West Siberian cities of over 50,000 population through regression and cluster analysis techniques, develops a number of city typologies based on magnitude of population growth, economic specialization, and social infrastructure. It is argued that such typologies are useful in planning because they identify types of cities experiencing similar growth conditions and instances where cities have changed from one type of situation to another. Although the study is limited to 1926-1986, it addresses economic and social components of Siberian urban growth relevant to the interpretation of preliminary results of the 1989 census (translated by H. L. Haslett, Leamington Spa, UK).     

Chinese capitalism at the crossroads?

China's 30 years of reform are often presented as a seamless progression towards greater liberalization and opening up. This review article of Yasheng Huang's Capitalism with Chinese characteristics shows how the author makes a compelling argument about how radically China's economic reforms changed from before and after the Tiananmen Square incident in June 1989. The 1980s saw the pro-rural, largely equitable, and generally liberal economic policies, with a private sector able to find sources of capital from family or relationship networks, and the creation of a very flexible and largely unplanned town and village enterprise system across China. From the 1990s, however, China has been dominated by pro-urban, less equitable and much more heavily state-led economic policies. Shanghai exemplifies this, with a highly circumscribed non-state sector, stagnation of per capita GDP growth in favour of company growth, and the Pudong development area largely based on land grab, and disrespect for the private property rights of the former tenant farmers based there. China grapples with the legacy of this policy change in 1989 to this day, with an increasingly disenfranchised and impoverished rural population, and cities that are both unsustainable, but irrevocable.     

Fertility policy in Ceausescu's Romania

This study tests a model for the impact that Ceausescu's pro-natalist policies had on the Romanian fertility rate between 1967 and 1989. Using time-series analysis the authors' findings show that the Ceausescu regime continually struggled with the Romanian population to increase the national birthrate. As a result the regime's policies, there was a significant increase in overall fertility between 1967 and 1989, when the Ceausescu regime was overthrown. Reasons are offered as to why Romania pursued such policies and was able to make them work, while other Eastern and Central European regimes proved to be less able to sustain drives to increase national fertility. This article also presents a model of what has happened to the Romanian fertility rate since 1989, showing that there has been a significant decline in fertility in the post-Communist period.     

Firm relocation in times of economic crisis: evidence from Greek small and medium enterprises’ movement to Bulgaria, 2007–2014

This paper examines firm relocation in the aftermath of the 2007 global economic crisis. In particular, the paper analyses the unprecedented recent increase in the movement of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) from Greece to Bulgaria using original insights by a survey of 103 Greek companies in Bulgaria. The findings suggest a reconsideration of the existing literature on firm mobility in order to explain the post-crisis movement of Greek SMEs. Entrepreneurs perceived firm relocation as a necessity, while, contrary to the existing literature, labour cost does not appear to have significantly influenced firm exit from Greece, the level of demand was highlighted as more important compared with the literature findings and access to external finance emerged as a major factor. Important among elements that attracted businesspeople to Bulgaria were low taxation and geographical proximity to Greece. The present analysis thus challenges the significance of firm relocation determinants in the literature.     

1966～1976年的上海职业人口

“文化大革命”期间,上海的职工人数增长了127．14万人。这主要是因为20世纪50年代生育高峰期的人口,每年以20万人以上的规模,从非在业状态转向在业状态。上海全民单位的职工主要来源于毕业生(高达72．28％)和复退军人,其他人员皆因“身份羁绊”难有机缘。这一期间,因上海从事第二产业人数及比重持续上升,终于使上海失去了金融、贸易等城市型经济功能,从一个综合型城市转变为生产型城市,并造成城市布局混乱、交通拥挤、工业区与居民区杂处等一系列影响人们生活的社会矛盾和困难。     

Supporting women's empowerment in Djibouti

This article reports on the work carried out by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) in the small island of Djibouti, Africa. The republic's population has been plagued with problems of high levels of unemployment, poverty, malnutrition, an almost non-existent family reproductive health care service, 100% prevalence rate of female genital mutilation and low literacy rate, especially for women. In addition, refugees from Ethiopia and Eritrea have settled in the country increasing the risks of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), HIV/AIDS, prostitution, and other social ills. In 1983, UNFPA started funding family planning and later reproductive health projects aimed at assuring access to services for a majority of Djiboutan women. The first country population program of assistance was started in 1992. This would help the government with health care for its population and to conduct a population census. In addition, the Fund has paid for training of doctors, midwives, and traditional birth assistants in the country and for rehabilitating maternity clinics and information centers. Moreover, it has supported agencies concerned with educating people on STDs, HIV/AIDS, safe motherhood and reproductive health for men and women, and other important issues.     

“They want a different life”: Rural northern settlement dynamics and pathways to homelessness in Yellowknife and Inuvik,Northwest Territories

Visible homelessness in the Northwest Territories, Canada is often described as a recent phenomenon by policy makers and the popular media alike. Indeed, since the late 1990s, homeless shelters in Yellowknife and Inuvik report a steady increase in demand for beds and other support for homeless people. Homelessness in these two communities disproportionately affects Aboriginal northerners, however little is known about their individual pathways to homelessness. Moreover, homelessness in the Northwest Territories is often portrayed as an issue confined to larger “urbanizing” regional centres, yet many homeless Aboriginal northerners have originated from small, rural settlement communities. Despite this, little concern has been paid to how factors at the small community level intersect with more visible forms of homelessness in larger, urban centres, not to mention how these intersections shape a territorial geography of homelessness. In this article, I aim to uncover and explore the often hidden factors at the northern rural settlement level that ultimately contribute to more visible forms of homelessness in northern urban centres. I suggest that uneven and fragmented social, institutional, and economic geographies result in a unique landscape of vulnerability to homelessness in the Northwest Territories. This geography emerges through the production of particular dynamics between rural settlement communities and northern urban centres. In particular, four main factors represent these rural‐urban dynamics: 1) the attractions of opportunity in northern urban centres; 2) rural settlement‐urban institutional flows; 3) chronic housing need in the settlements; and, 4) disintegrating social relationships in the settlements. I explore the particular ways in which these factors influence rural‐urban migration among the homeless population and what roles this mobility plays in individual pathways to homelessness.     

Transition in second birth intention in a low fertility context: the case of Jiangsu,China

When China’s decades-long one-child policy was replaced by a two-child policy, the circumstances under which women intend to have a second child become of great concern. This study examines the determinants of women’s second birth intention, as well as how the intention changes over time alongside changes in other life circumstances. Using panel data from the Jiangsu Fertility Intention and Behaviour Study (JFIBS, 2007, 2010), we find that women with more economic and familial/social resources are more likely to want a second child, while women who work in non-agriculture sectors and have higher decision-making power in the family are less inclined to have a second child. We also find that a sizeable increase of family income encourages women to upwardly revise their intention towards a desire for two children. The role of policy change on Chinese women’s second birth intention is also discussed.