基于空间相互作用模型的近代中国经济区域划分研究

通商口岸制度,是中国近代史上最重要的经济现象。近代中国经济地理学的格局和区域经济差异等内容,可以利用当代经济地理学、GIS技术、经济学等研究方法结合历史数据进行考察。近代中国一百多个通商口岸的发展,逐步形成了沿海、沿江、边疆对外开放的地理格局,为现代化提供了条件,促进了近代资本主义生产方式的空间扩张,也重构了中国的经济区域。为探究近代中国通商口岸影响下的经济区域变化,首先对通商口岸体系子口税贸易在地理空间分布进行探讨,初步界定一些较大通商口岸的影响区域,进而通过数量化和GIS方法,特别是使用空间交互模型得出结论。通商口岸体系是区域经济现代化的代表和系统性的研究对象,直接影响到当代中国的经济地理格局,可对当前中国经济地理区划提供有历史与现实意义的参考。     

An Analysis of Historic-Era Indian Locations in Iowa

A database of 675 historic Indian locations in Iowa illuminates some of the broader trends of population movement during the periods of Euro-American exploration and American settlement. The data are varied, consisting of recorded archaeological sites combined with Indian accounts gleaned from digital archives such as local histories and newspapers. Insights derived from analysis include the placement of the 1825 Neutral Line as a possible cause of the myth of the Dakota as an overly aggressive tribe and the poorly documented eastward expansion of Potawatomi into Iowa after 1840. The database can aid future investigations in historical research, archaeology, and tribal range and affiliation.     

早夏国家形成时期的聚落形态考察

传统观点认为中原地区国家文明始于夏代。对此尽管仍存异议,但标志三代文明开端的夏王朝的建立必然会引起文化乃至社会结构的一系列变化,是勿庸置疑的。鉴于目前学界对相关考古学文化变迁解释的歧异,笔者拟从聚落形态的对比分析出发,重新审视这一问题。考察的对象限定在学界探讨夏王朝建立所基本认同的时空范     

关于赵宝沟文化的聚落形态问题

本文对赵宝沟文化的白音长汗、水泉、小山和赵宝沟四处居住址的结构进行了分析,总结和阐释了以往在赵宝沟文化聚落形态认识上的主要观点和产生分歧的原因,认为只有对赵宝沟文化居住址做全面的揭露,才能真正解决赵宝沟文化的聚落结构问题。依据现有材料初步将赵宝沟文化的聚落区分为大、中、小三个层次,应该是较为切合实际的。     

Computing the Jacobian in Gaussian Spatial Autoregressive Models: An Illustrated Comparison of Available Methods

When estimating spatial regression models by maximum likelihood using spatial weights matrices to represent spatial processes, computing the Jacobian, ln(|I ? λW|), remains a central problem. In principle, and for smaller data sets, the use of the eigenvalues of the spatial weights matrix provides a very rapid resolution. Analytical eigenvalues are available for large regular grids. For larger problems not on regular grids, including those induced in spatial panel and dyadic (network) problems, solving the eigenproblem may not be feasible, and a number of alternatives have been proposed. This article surveys selected alternatives, and comments on their relative usefulness, covering sparse Cholesky and sparse LU factorizations, and approximations such as Monte Carlo, Chebyshev, and using lower‐order moments with interpolation. The results are presented in terms of component‐wise differences between sets of Jacobians for selected data sets. In conclusion, recommendations are made for a number of analytical settings. Al estimar modelos de regresión espacial con el método del máxima verosimilitud (máximum likelihood) y usando matrices de pesos espaciales para representar procesos espaciales, cálculo del término jacobiano (jabobian)—ln(| I ?λ W |)‐ sigue siendo un problema central. En principio, y para bases de datos más pequeñas, el uso de los valores propios (eigenvalues) de la matriz de pesos espaciales proporciona una solución muy rápida. Los eigenvalues analíticos para retículas o grillas grandes y regulares son ya conocidos. Para problemas más grandes, que no se presentan en mallas regulares ‐incluyendo aquellos que se inducen en problemas de paneles espaciales y en problemas de (redes) diádicas‐, es posible que resolver el eigenproblem no sea posible. Este artículo estudia una selección de alternativas y comenta acerca de su relativa utilidad. Se cubren las facorizaciones de tipo Cholesky disperso (sparse Cholesky) y de tipo LU dispersas (sparse LU), las aproximaciones Monte Carlo, y Chebyshev, así mismo se utiliza momentos de bajo‐orden (lower‐order) con interpolación. Los resultados se presentan en términos de diferencias de componentes entre sets de términos jacobianos para bases de datos seleccionadas. En conclusión, se hacen recomendaciones para una serie de contextos analíticos. 当采用表征空间过程的空间权重矩阵对空间回归模型进行最大似然估计时,雅可比矩阵ln(|I?λW|)的计算仍是核心问题。对于小数据集,原则上可利用空间权重矩阵的特征值提供一种快速的解决方案,对于大型规则格网数据特征值分析同样有效。但对于不规则格网大型问题,包括从空间面板和二元（网络）问题中引伸的问题,利用特征值的解决方案可能不适用,对此学术界提出了多种可选替代方案。本文选取已有的几种替代方案并评论各自的相对有效性,其中包括稀疏Cholesky分解和稀疏LU分解法,Monte Carlo和 Chebyshev近似模拟法以及低阶矩插值法。结果以所选数据集雅可比矩阵间特定组份的差异方式显示。最后,推荐了一些分析设定。     

中国旅游创新与旅游经济增长关系研究——基于空间面板数据模型

本文运用空间面板数据模型,选用1998～2009年数据研究了中国省域旅游创新与旅游经济增长的关系,发现：中国省域旅游创新与旅游经济增长呈现显著空间集聚性;旅游创新不仅推动当地旅游经济的增长,还通过空间传导机制对邻近区域的旅游经济产生正向的溢出效应。说明应充分重视创新在旅游经济增长中的积极作用,通过旅游创新成果的溢出效应扩大旅游创新对旅游经济增长的作用程度和范围。     

Spatial Dimensions of the Easterlin Hypothesis: Fertility Variations in Italy

The paper re–evaluates the Easterlin hypothesis in a multiregional context by conceptually and methodologically accounting for two processes of spatial interdependence in an open subnational demo–economic system: diffusion of fertility norms and values across space, and movements between labor markets. The empirical analysis estimates pooled cross–sectional, time–series models using data for 18 Italian regions from 1952 to 1995. The results suggest that accounting for spatial interdependencies is necessary to avoid model misspecifications. Moreover, the models lead to space–time landscapes of fertility elasticities that suggest, for the majority of space–time units, an inverse Easterlin effect for the diffusion component but support of the Easterlin hypothesis due to labor movements across space.     

基于空间计量方法的明清时期河南进士地理格局演变分析

空间计量分析方法被地理信息系统、空间经济学等广泛应用,但在对历史时期地理因素的研究中,这一方法的使用尚未普遍。根据明清两代进士题名录的考证,可以完备地整理出全国各个省份进士数额的科际分布结构,选取进士数额作为指标,可以较好地代表不同区域的文化水平发展程度。以明、清两代的河南进士作为研究对象,在历史资料、空间计量方法相配合的研究中可知,河南并非处于文化整体落后的局面之下,而是在省内明显出现了空间格局上集聚的演变过程,从明代府级政区治所的集聚,过渡为清代两个较为明显的文化中心区域,即以省会开封、商丘为中心的豫东地区,以光州为中心的东南地区。再结合聚类分析,及时间趋势下的进士数额分析,可知以进士为代表的明清两代河南文化地理区域,虽在整体上倾向于随机分布,但空间上仍呈现了一定的东西部差异,并有相应的稳定性。又通过回归分析可知,以进士数量分布为代表的文化地理格局的影响因素中,人口及经济发展程度的意义并不是最重要的,中央集权制度主导下的政区等级差别、文化传统中的社会民风等因素有更大的影响力。     

Bayesian Spatial Filtering for Hedonic Models: An Application for the Real Estate Market

This article presents a Bayesian method based on spatial filtering to estimate hedonic models for dwelling prices with geographically varying coefficients. A Bayesian Adaptive Sampling algorithm for variable selection is used, which makes it possible to select the most appropriate filters for each hedonic coefficient. This approach explores the model space more systematically and takes into account the uncertainty associated with model estimation and selection processes. The methodology is illustrated with an application for the real estate market in the Spanish city of Zaragoza and with simulated data. In addition, an exhaustive comparison study with a set of alternatives strategies used in the literature is carried out. Our results show that the proposed Bayesian procedures are competitive in terms of prediction; more accurate results are obtained in the estimation of the regression coefficients of the model, and the multicollinearity problems associated with the estimation of the regression coefficients are solved.     

我国旅游业技术创新水平的区域空间分布特征——基于专利数据的统计分析

本文基于专利的统计数据,分别采用绝对指标、相对指标和特化系数来评价我国旅游业技术创新水平的空间分布特征。研究结果表明,采用绝对指标评价的旅游业技术创新水平呈现“东高西低”的格局;而采用相对指标（单位人口的旅游业专利申请数量）评价的结果表明,东部地区仍处于领先地位,但与绝对指标评价结果相比,西部地区的排序明显升高;东部地区旅游业发明专利特化系数较高,如北京、天津、上海、广东、海南均在1．1以上,但是全国大多数省市的旅游业专利还属于实用新型和外观设计特化类,说明我国旅游业技术创新结构并不完善。     

土默特平原聚落分布形态演变及其驱动因素分析(1934—2019)

选取土默特平原1934、1982和2019年的聚落人口数据,运用GIS空间分析法,定性与定量结合分析研究区聚落分布形态演变及其驱动因素,结果表明,1934—2019年土默特平原以小聚落为主,大规模聚落数量和比例逐年增加,人口等级结构由“扁平”向“长高”金字塔形转变。聚落空间分布整体呈现集聚分布特征,大规模聚落集聚性不显著,其他规模的聚落分布模式由随机向集聚转变,研究区人口极化现象显著;聚落空间分布非均衡发展趋势明显,呈现由极核式向点轴式演变的迹象;聚落网络联系的空间近邻效应显著,人口规模较大的中心城区成为强联系节点。地形、河流、交通是研究区聚落分布形态演变的主要驱动因素,聚落低海拔、邻河流、邻干道、邻城镇的指向性强。该研究便于厘清土默特平原近百年聚落分布形态的演变脉络,为当地聚落的空间布局优化与调控提供一定参考价值。     

GeoDa : An Introduction to Spatial Data Analysis

This article presents an overview of GeoDa™, a free software program intended to serve as a user-friendly and graphical introduction to spatial analysis for non-geographic information systems (GIS) specialists. It includes functionality ranging from simple mapping to exploratory data analysis, the visualization of global and local spatial autocorrelation, and spatial regression. A key feature of GeoDa is an interactive environment that combines maps with statistical graphics, using the technology of dynamically linked windows. A brief review of the software design is given, as well as some illustrative examples that highlight distinctive features of the program in applications dealing with public health, economic development, real estate analysis, and criminology.     

登封王城岗遗址聚落形态再考察

登封王城岗遗址自史前时期的裴李岗文化,到历史时期的明代,文化传承从未间断。而大量的考古资料表明,王城岗遗址在文明演进的不同时期,其聚落形态亦发生着不断变化。     

The Spatial Distribution of French Agricultural Cooperatives: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

Abstract

This paper studies the spatial dynamics of French agricultural cooperatives using the recently developed exploratory spatial data analysis tool. Analysis at the level of French districts in 1995 and 2005 shows strong evidence for global and local spatial autocorrelations in the geographical distribution of agricultural cooperatives. The presence of spatial disparities between French districts is confirmed by the detection of such specific spatial patterns as district clusters, a group of neighbouring districts with the same high or low level of agricultural cooperative activities. A typology of all the different Regions is developed to examine the specific spatial patterns of the agricultural cooperative activities. The results indicate that major organizational changes in cooperatives do not significantly modify the initial dynamics concerning the location of activities.     

Using Spatial Filters and Exploratory Data Analysis to Enhance Regression Models of Spatial Data

Residual spatial autocorrelation is a situation frequently encountered in regression analysis of spatial data. The statistical problems arising due to this phenomenon are well‐understood. Original developments in the field of statistical analysis of spatial data were meant to detect spatial pattern, in order to assess whether corrective measures were required. An early development was the use of residual autocorrelation as an exploratory tool to improve regression analysis of spatial data. In this note, we propose the use of spatial filtering and exploratory data analysis as a way to identify omitted but potentially relevant independent variables. We use an example of blood donation patterns in Toronto, Canada, to demonstrate the proposed approach. In particular, we show how an initial filter used to rectify autocorrelation problems can be progressively replaced by substantive variables. In the present case, the variables so retrieved reveal the impact of urban form, travel habits, and demographic and socio‐economic attributes on donation rates. The approach is particularly appealing for model formulations that do not easily accommodate positive spatial autocorrelation, but should be of interest as well for the case of continuous variables in linear regression.     

中国自然保护地立法模式探析

建立自然保护地是有效保护和合理利用自然资源的重要举措。法制建设是自然保护地建设和管理的重要基础与有力保障。自然保护地建设过程中发生的种种矛盾,归根到底是利益相关者之间的利益冲突,为此政府必须提供平衡各方利益的制度保障。中国现有的类型化部门立法与其他法律规范相结合的自然保护地立法模式存在立法层级低、法制协调性不足、立法体系封闭、保护对象不明确等缺陷。考虑到自然的整体性和调整利益冲突的有效性,我们应该选择综合性框架立法作为中国自然保护地立法的理想模式。     

游客价值观对环保行为的影响——基于客源市场空间距离与区域经济水平的分组探讨

人为因素造成的旅游地生态环境退化已成为阻碍旅游可持续发展的重要因素,因此研究游客环保行为具有必要性.本研究选取九寨沟与青城山-都江堰为案例地,采用便利抽样法搜集数据,依据空间距离和区域经济水平划分游客样本,并构建4个游客价值观驱动保护旅游地环境行为模型.不同模型比较分析发现:(1)利他价值观、环境世界观与环保道德规范对游客环保行为的正向作用具有普遍性规律,不受空间距离与区域经济水平影响;(2)利己价值观对游客环保行为的作用机理存在区域差异,空间距离具有削弱作用,区域经济水平具有增强作用.