An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983 1. Migration Probabilities

This is part one of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

Regional Differences in High and Technical School Demand in Melbourne, 1951–1985

Over half of all young people in Australian government schools do not complete secondary education and leave school without any formal qualification. This paper uses a regional framework to examine long-term trends in retention rates in different areas of Melbourne and concludes that in both older established and newly urbanized parts of the city the post-war transformation of government high schools into a mass system has failed to break down barriers based on social area. Marked regional differences were found in demand for high school, as well as a long downward trend during the 1970s (despite recession). Technical schools have displayed comparatively minor regional differences and retention rates grew during the 1970s. This suggests that the academic curriculum of high schools continues to be culturally selective. In addition to residential differentiation, important structural features, such as the relative over-supply of technical school places, were identified as contributing to regional trends.     

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983: 2. Disequilibrium

This is part two of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

Employment Opportunities,Wages and International Migration in Sweden 1970–1989

In this study I focus on the impact of aggregate labor turnover and regional labor market conditions on gross in- and out-migration within the framework of a neoclassical flexible-wage (equilibrium) model and a fixed-wage (labor-market disequilibrium) model. Using annual panel data on internal gross migration flows in Sweden from 1970 to 1989, I find that regional differences in employment opportunities have the expected effects on migration. The empirical relationship between real wages and gross migration flows is found to be less congruent with theory implications, indicating that compensated regional income prospects are equalized primarily via the interaction between employment opportunities and gross migration flows. Cyclical changes in hirings are shown to have a robust and strongly significant positive scale effect on migration.     

The International Air Linkages of Australian Cities, 1985–1996

International air linkages are one of the important features differentiating the development of metropolitan areas, as the location of many activities now requires frequent and diverse international contacts. This paper explores the consequences of this for Australia by tracing the changes in international airline linkages over the past decade. In that time, the geography of the nation's air linkages have shifted in favour of the Asian nations to our north, reflecting the shifts in trade and immigration. Some cities have felt more of that change, with Cairns and Brisbane especially prominent due to their roles as gateways for the tourist industry. However, these shifts have yet to weaken the diversity of contacts in Melbourne and Sydney, indicating that the underlying geography of business still has a strong influence on the international contacts made from each city.     

Return and Onward Interprovincial Migration through Economic Boom and Bust in Canada,from 1976–81 to 1981–86

This paper applies a three-level nested logit model to the micro data of the 1981 and 1986 Canadian census to study the effects of personal factors and provincial attributes on the interprovincial migration patterns of the non-native young adults (aged 20–44) through the economic boom of 1976–81 and the economic bust of 1981–86. We found strong evidence that through both boom and bust periods, both return and onward migrations were in the “right” direction, in that they responded to economic variables in a rational way. However, the large proportion of migrants choosing to make a return migration indicates the importance of the province of birth in the mental map of the potential migrants. We also found that the selectivities in the migration behaviors with respect to certain personal factors (especially education) remained basically the same through both boom and bust periods.     

Spatial Analysis of Regional Inequalities in Turkey

In this paper, we examine regional inequalities in Turkey not only at the interprovincial level but for three different regional definitions as well. It has raised questions about inequalities not only between regions (interregional) but inequalities within each region. Hence, one contribution of this paper is to test the effects of aggregation and scale on the identification of regional inequalities using currently accepted spatial analytic methods. The results indicate that overall inequalities are decreasing; however spatial dependence is becoming more dominant. The Theil Index indicates that interregional inequalities are increasing while intraregional inequalities are declining for all spatial partitions from 1980 to 1997. Most developed provinces are enhancing overall inequalities, although there is some evidence of a spread effect on their neighbours.     

Migration to London and transatlantic emigration of indentured servants, 1683–1775

Large-scale migration to London was a central feature of pre-industrial England, enabling the city to grow to a considerable size and preventing over-population in marginal areas of the country, but little is known about the geographical pattern of migration because data are difficult to obtain. It is argued here that 75% of indentured servants bound in London for service in the colonies in America and the West Indies in the period 1683–1775 were two-stage emigrants and their records can be used to establish the pattern of migration to London in the century preceding the industrial revolution. It is shown that London's migration field in this period was very extensive, more than half the migrants coming from areas over 130 km from the city, and more than 21% coming from large towns. The migration pattern of women differed from that of men, in accordance with the principles identified by Ravenstein. It is also shown that the average distance travelled by migrants from England and Wales declined from 166 to 145 km between 1683 and 1775 although migration from Scotland and Ireland increased and the migration field expanded to include America and Asia. For many servants, emigration was simply a further stage in the migration process.