SOVIET ASIAN-PACIFIC TRADE AND THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

During the 1970s and early 1980s it was generally accepted, by both Soviet and Western specialists, that in the Soviet Far East the expansion of exports to the nations of the Pacific Basin offered a solution to the region's economic problems. However, recent policy statements suggest the rejection of this export-led development strategy. This study examines the changing structure and dynamics of Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region. At present, for a combination of economic and political reasons, Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region is dominated by exports of machinery and equipment and petroleum to the socialist nations of the region, inasmuch as Japanese demand for Soviet natural resources is stagnant. Therefore, because of the resource orientation of the Far Eastern economy, contemporary trade relations do not favor the expansion of the Soviet Far Eastern export base. Consequently, the future role of the region in the national economic system will be determined largely by the availability of domestic capital investment funds.     

俄罗斯远东的经济发展与中国人的作用

分析了远东地区经济发展落后的历史、地理、人口等原因,对中国人在沙皇俄国时期、前苏联和俄罗斯联邦等不同时期,在远东地区经济发展中的作用进行了论述,并对远东地区同中国开展经贸合作的必然性及中国人在远东地区的前景进行了展望。     

跨国地区的空间经济联系与格局特征研究——以中国东北三省与俄罗斯远东联邦区为例

以中国东北三省和俄罗斯远东联邦区为研究对象,运用区域经济等级、经济联系强度、地缘经济匹配等研究中俄跨国地区空间经济联系与格局特征,研究表明：2010—2019年,(1)俄远东繁荣的经济区与停滞的落后区两极分化现象显著。一级经济区位于滨海边疆区、哈巴罗夫斯克（伯力）边疆区、萨哈（雅库特）共和国、萨哈林（库页）州,二级经济区分布在阿穆尔州、外贝加尔边疆区、布里亚特共和国,三级经济区包含堪察加边疆区、马加丹州、犹太自治州、楚科奇自治区。(2)中国东北三省与俄远东区的经济联系强度不断增强,同其毗邻东向的滨海边疆区,北向的阿穆尔州和哈巴罗夫斯克（伯力）边疆区的经济联系量最多。空间上,中国东北三省与俄远东不同地区（南部>西部>东北部）经济联系差异较大,呈“南高北低、西高东低”的格局特征。(3)中国东北三省与俄远东多数联邦主体隶属于地缘经济互补型,表现出距离越近的联邦主体、竞争关系较强,距离越远的联邦主体、互补关系较强的态势。     

POTENTIALS FOR MIGRATION AND MOBILITY AMONG OIL WORKERS IN THE RUSSIAN NORTH

High population mobility, mainly in the form of out-migration, is a characteristic feature of the post-Soviet Russian North. As subsidies from the centre were significantly cut, living standards and the number of inhabitants in many Russian peripheries declined considerably. Nevertheless, there are also prospering regions and industry sectors in these parts of Russia, which are often related to and dependent on the exploitation of natural resources. After introducing general Soviet and post-Soviet mobility and migration patterns in the north of Russia, this article examines the mobility behaviour of oil workers. The analyses are based on a case study of an oil company (SeverTEK) from the Komi Republic and incorporate different statistical approaches. The purpose of the study is to assess past, present and future mobility behaviour of those in northern regions who are benefitting from post-Soviet transition and will most likely contribute most to a positive development of the Russian North. The results show that the surveyed employees of SeverTEK have migrated in the past mainly from Siberia, the Far East, and the now independent countries of the former Soviet Union to northern and central parts of European Russia. The present mobility behaviour is strongly characteristic of shift work employment with long-distance commuting. An analysis of intended migration indentifies strong potentials for future migrations among the oil workers of the case study. It appears that many employees are ready to leave northern regions as soon as their job situation allows it. Therefore, unlike in other resource peripheries such as Western Australia, long-distance commuting is in Russia not used as a decentralization measure; instead it offers opportunities for reducing the problematically high population density of the post-Soviet North.     

The Role of Eastern Siberia in Solving Some of the Economic Problems of the Pacific Basin

The abundance of resources in the Soviet Far East and Eastern Siberia, combined with the known scarcity of fuel and energy supplies and certain raw materials in the countries of the Pacific basin, suggests that the resources of the eastern regions of the Soviet Union, could, if properly developed, find a wide market in countries bordering on the Pacific Ocean.     

The ‘R’ in BRICs: is Russia an emerging power?

The concept of emerging powers presupposes several features shared by the states in question including regional preponderance, aspiration to a global role and the contesting of US unipolarity. This article assesses the role of Russia as an emerging power. It asks how Russians interpret the international system, what kind of system they would prefer, what they are trying to do in the current system and why, and how these considerations affect their relations with the US hegemony, other centres of power such as the EU, and other emerging powers. The author discusses the structural, liberal and regional interpretations of state behaviour and how they relate to the Russian model, arguing that Russia's policy is strongly affected by its domestic economic and political context. Russia is highly responsive to trends in the former Soviet Union and regions it perceives to be in its own space (e.g. EU and NATO Europe and north-east Asia). In the larger international system, Russia's approach is a mix of partnership or acquiescence on matters of vital interest to the hegemonic power, and more competitive behaviour on issues deemed central to Russian but peripheral to US interests. The article concludes that Russia is not an emerging power in the conventional sense. Its foreign policy is dominated by efforts to reverse the decline of the 1980s and 1990s. This entails fostering international conditions conducive to allowing reconsolidation without external hindrance. Its second major priority is regional: to restore Russian influence over the former Soviet states. In essence, Russian policy aims to limit further losses and promote conditions that will allow it to re-emerge as a great power.     

Missing Links. Indigenous Life and Evolutionary Thought in the History of Russian Ethnography

The history of Russian social anthropology has long been best known for the work of three, late nineteenth-century “exile ethnographers,” each sent to the Russian Far East for their anti-tsarist activities as students. All three men—Vladimir Bogoraz, Vladimir Iokhel'son, and Lev Shternberg—produced voluminous and celebrated works on Russian far eastern indigenous life, but it was the young Shternberg who had perhaps the most profound effect on setting the agenda for the canonic evolutionist line soon to take hold in late Russian imperial and early Soviet ethnography. This essay draws on archival, library, and field research to revisit the life and work of Shternberg in order to tell the story of “group marriage” that he documented for the life of one Sakhalin Island indigenous people, Gilyaks (or Nivkhgu, Nivkhi). Documented in this way by Shternberg, the Nivkh kinship system proved a crucial “missing link” for Friedrich Engels, who had long been eager to provide evidence of primitive communism as man's natural state. For Gilyaks, the die was cast. Their role as the quintessential savages of Engels’ favor made them famous in Russian and Soviet ethnographic literature, and significantly enhanced their importance to Soviet government planners. This essay tracks that episode and its aftermaths as a pivotal moment in the history of Russian social anthropology and of evolutionist thought more broadly.     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE RAILROAD: ITS AREA OF INFLUENCE AND ITS PROJECTED FREIGHT FLOWS

The idea of building the Baykal-Amur Mainline, running through East Siberia to the north of, and parallel to, the Trans-Siberian Railroad, first arose in 1932. Initial surveys of an alignment were completed in 1944, and the western and eastern extremities of the BAM were completed by the early 1950s. Surveys along the BAM route resumed in 1967 with renewed interest in a railroad that would open up new Siberian resource sites for export through Pacific seaports. After completion of the BAM, scheduled for 1983, freight traffic will consist mainly of West Siberian crude oil moving to refineries and ports of the Soviet Far East (70 to 75 percent of freight movements in ton-kilometers) followed by timber (10 to 18 percent). Coking coal from southern Yakutia to the Pacific coast for export to Japan will also be significant freight item. Eastbound freight movements will greatly exceed westbound traffic. [A previous article on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April 1975.]     

Balance of Power and Political Equilibrium: A Response

This article analyses the international thought of the US sinologist and political advisor Owen Lattimore (1900–89). A well-known expert on China and the Far East, Lattimore was a ‘public intellectual’ and advisor to Chiang Kai-shek and Franklin D. Roosevelt. In 1950, after Senator Joseph McCarthy accused him of Soviet espionage, Lattimore's reputation was irrevocably damaged and his political thought forgotten. By assessing his visions of global democracy and geopolitics, this article claims Lattimore made insightful contributions to international thought. On the eve of the cold war, Lattimore's ideas of pluralistic democracy and tripolar world order offered an alternative vision of the post-war era, focusing on political participation and diversity. This article focuses on Lattimore's published writings in the 1940s, when, as political advisor and director of the Johns Hopkins’ Page School of International Relations, he sought to shift international attention from Europe to the Far East as the potential birthplace of a new version of post-colonial democracy. A fervent anti-imperialist, Lattimore crafted new political space for global democracy in a post-imperial age. His thoughtful discussion of participation, co-operation, democracy, knowledge, and pluralism make his vision of world order an interesting contribution to international thought in the twentieth century.     

The Long Sunset of Strategic Partnership: Russia's Evolving China Policy

The strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing is arguably the greatest Russian foreign policy achievement of the post-Soviet period. In just over a decade, the relationship has grown from a barely civil interaction to one of political and strategic convergence and flourishing economic cooperation. Once divisive issues such as border demarcation and Chinese 'illegal migration' into the Russian Far East have been largely defused, while bilateral trade has tripled during the past four years. Nevertheless, despite these successes, the strategic partnership remains fragile and vulnerable to bilateral and international developments. A negative historical legacy, enduring cultural prejudices and strategic suspicions, and even commercial disagreements threaten, over time, to undermine many of the gains of the recent past. In the transformed global environment after 9/11 there are signs that Moscow is rethinking its approach towards China as part of a more general evolution in Russian strategic calculus in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. China's emergence as the next super-power, the spectre of increased Sino-American tensions, the changing balance of power between Moscow and Beijing, and rival agendas in Central Asia all have the potential to rekindle once dormant political differences and security fears. Although the breadth of common interests means there is no early prospect of confrontation, the much-vaunted Russia–China strategic partnership may be giving way to a growing strategic divergence.     

Electoral Behavior in the Russian Far East, 1995-2000: Contextual and Compositional Effects

A group of political scientists specializing in Russia's post-Soviet electoral behavior explores the question of whether genuinely regional effects of voting behavior can be discerned (and at what scale) by controlling for variations in compositional characteristics measured by aggregate social and economic data. The paper seeks to identify situations in which contextual effects may be operating, using a scale of analysis that is intermediate between regional (oblast)-level case studies and nationwide surveys—that of the Russian Far East macroregion. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, O50, Z10. 4 tables, 40 references, 1 appendix.     

The Port Hamilton (Geomundo) Incident (1885–1887): Retracing Another Great Game in Eurasia

This paper traces a much overlooked historical event, whose impacts threatened to upend the status quo in the Far East and potentially escalate the Anglo-Russian rivalry in Eurasia. With the occupation of Port Hamilton (Geomundo) by a hegemon, Britain, Korea was catapulted into the centre stage of the international system, where it garnered unprecedented attention from major powers. It was also during this period that neutralisation was contemplated both within and without Korea. By exploring this incident through contemporary neutralisation discourse, this work illustrates neutralisation's role in providing an analytical framework to assess the geopolitical importance of this incident in international relations. After suffering a crushing defeat in the Crimean War, Russia was forced to modify its designs in the Mediterranean and adjust itself to a new regional order. Since its room for manoeuvre was constrained by its chief rival, Britain, the Russian government was forced to tread more cautiously in European geopolitics and to refrain from military means in advancing its interests there. Similarly, the British offensive on Geomundo thwarted Russian expansion into the Far East and denied Russia access to the Pacific, allowing Britain to repeat the feat that it had achieved in the Crimean War.     

Developments in Russian Gas Production Since 1998: Russia's Evolving Gas Supply Strategy

An American geographer and prominent authority on the oil and natural gas industries and resources of Russia and other former republics of the Soviet Union reports on overall trends in Russia's natural gas production in the years following the country's ruble devaluation and financial crisis. The account—based on systematic in-country observations, discussions/interviews with industry executives, and a review of industry sources—focuses on factors affecting domestic supply and demand as well as export capacity (will Russia have enough gas to meet rising domestic demand while fulfilling its export obligations?), regional patterns of production (and performance of Gazprom regional production enterprises), obstacles to the use of associated gas derived from crude oil extraction, and major pipeline construction projects in West Siberia and the Russian Far East. The paper concludes by outlining CERA's forecast for Russian gas production to 2020, also disaggregated by region. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 7 figures, 8 tables, 51 references.     

Before Australia: Historicising Russian Migration via China after World War II

In 1945, tens of thousands of Russian and Russian-speaking Jewish refugees were in China. Many had come decades earlier, following the Bolshevik revolution, the rout of anti-Bolshevik armies in 1919–20 and the White Russian defeat in Siberia in 1922. At war’s end, they became part of the large cohort of European refugees in the Far East, displaced by National Socialism and then by Communism, who urgently sought resettlement in the West. A significant number eventually came to Australia in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Yet, Russian migration to Australia via the China route is poorly understood in the historiography. This article examines Russian migration to China in the first half of the twentieth century, and their departure from China in the late 1940s and 1950s. Their trajectory was complicated first by events in China, and second, by their encounters with the international refugee agencies created by the Allies to assist those displaced by the war.     

THE BAM AND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

The construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline, which began in 1974 and is scheduled to be completed in 1983, is expected to have a profound impact on the economy of the Soviet Far East, whose development has long lagged because of lack of transport access to regional resources. The BAM is expected to foster the development of new industries, such as coal and steel, oil and gas, hydropower, metal fabrication and chemicals, and stimulate the expansion of traditional activities, such as gold and tin mining, fisheries and forest products. The BAM is also expected to play a key role in expanding trade between the Soviet Far East and the countries of the Pacific basin and the Indian Ocean. In light of the complex aspects of the BAM project, it is suggested that integrated planning procedures encompass not only the transport aspects of the project, but all economic activities to be generated as a result of the construction of the new railroad. In view of the labor shortage, a high level of labor-saving technology is recommended. Concern for the local environment is expressed in view of the extensive construction activities in permafrost. (Previous articles on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April and October 1975.)     

俄罗斯远东“中国移民问题”论析

在俄罗斯远东乃至全俄罗斯,“中国移民问题”是一个被有关势力上升到政治层面加以夸大、炒作的敏感问题。其主要肇因既有历史基因的复萌,也有现实利益的驱动。在其影响下,中俄两国开展劳务合作的潜力远未得到应有的发挥。近年来,俄虽有部分学者和政界人士能较为客观地分析中国移民问题,阐述利用中国劳务的必要性,且积极探讨利用中国劳务的有效途径,但俄罗斯社会对中国人持有的戒备和排斥心理仍相当浓厚。对此,我们应多从自身方面找原因,改进做法,积极应对,促使俄罗斯社会改变对中国人的偏见,从而将远东变成中俄合作真正的窗口和桥梁。     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE A MAJOR NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

A Soviet planning official discusses planning for the BAM project, a major new railroad to be completed by 1982 in East Siberia and the Soviet Far East. The construction of a well equipped rail line, supplied with specially designed tank-cars unit trains, was found to be more economical than the construction of an ordinary railroad, needed for resource development north of the present Trans-Siberian, and of a separate oil pipeline from West Siberia's oil fields across Siberia to Far Eastern refineries and tanker export terminals. Under the decision taken by the Soviet planning authorities, crude oil will move by pipeline from the West Siberian fields to Tayshet, where it will be trans-shipped to tank-car trains taking the oil to Urgal. There it will be transferred again to pipelines for transmission to refineries and port terminals. [See also Soviet Geography, November 1974, pp. 587–590; map, p. 588.]     

Russia's economic agenda to 2020

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union the role of Russia in international relations has been in flux—a reflection of its changing capacities, positions and interests. To a certain extent, this variability has been defined by the Russian economy, which in the 1990s passed through a stage of deep structural transformation and severe financial crisis, but which then benefited from a period of fast and mainly stable economic growth in the first years of the twenty‐first century. Now, the serious economic decline as a result of the global crisis of 2008–2009 has been replaced by an unstable and uncertain recovery. In the 2000s a very specific political regime of personalized power under Vladimir Putin—set to be back as president in 2012—was established in Russia. During his next term Putin will face the most serious challenges to Russia's economic policy yet. According to some scenarios, these challenges could significantly destabilize the country's politics and economy. Russia is facing a demographic trap; the ageing of the population is increasing the pension burden on the budget, while the shrinking labour force will surely become an obstacle to growth. The dependence of the budget and balance of payments on the price of oil has grown so great that even price stabilization becomes a threat to macroeconomic stability. The poor quality of the investment climate leads to falling private investment which, in turn, hinders the much‐vaunted modernization of the economy. If combined, these problems will lead to the widening of the gap in technology and living standards between Russia and developed countries. Elimination of political competition and the impossibility of replacing political leaders through elections have led to widespread corruption and abuses, crony capitalism, and the complete undermining of the independence of the courts and law enforcement which further complicates the search for adequate responses to the mounting economic challenges. As there are no reasons to believe that Vladimir Putin is going to reform the country's current political system, the gradual accumulation of economic problems could well become the main threat to his presidency as Russia heads towards 2020.     

Core and Periphery in the Evolving Russian Economy: Integration or Isolation of the Far East?

An American social scientist explores the relations between core and periphery in the post-Soviet economy, using the Russian Far East as a case study. His analysis draws on Western and Russian conceptual literature on economic peripheries, as well as on the Russian periodical press and recent interviews with officials in the Far East (conducted during research in Primorskiy Kray in January-February 1996). A concluding section outlines policy options for regional development, either in concert with Moscow or through an independent course of action. 52 references. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O10, P2, R58.     

East Timor and the new humanitarian interventionism

The fate of East Timor provides a barometer for how far the normative structure of international society has been transformed since the end of the Cold War. In 1975, the East Timorese were abandoned by a Western bloc that placed accommodating the Indonesian invasion of the island before the protection of human rights. Twenty‐five years later, it was the protection of the civilian population on the island that loomed large in the calculations of these same states. Australia, which had sacrificed the rights of the people of East Timor on the altar of good relations with Indonesia, found itself leading an intervention force that challenged the old certainties of its ‘Jakarta first’ policy. The article charts the interplay of domestic and international factors that made this normative transformation possible. The authors examine the political and economic factors that led to the agreement in May 1999 between Portugal, Indonesia and the UN to hold a referendum on the future political status of East Timor. A key question is whether the international community should have done more to assure the security of the ballot process. The authors argue that while more could have been done by Australia, the United States and officials in the UN Secretariat to place this issue on the Security Council's agenda, it is highly unlikely that the international community would have proved capable of mobilizing the political will necessary to coerce Indonesia into accepting a peacekeeping force. The second part of the article looks at how the outbreak of the violence in early September 1999 fundamentally changed these political assumptions. The authors argue that it became politically possible to employ coercion against Indonesian sovereignty in a context in which the Habibie government was viewed as having failed to exercise sovereignty with responsibility. By focusing on the economic and military sanctions employed by Western states, the pressures exerted by the international financial institutions and the intense diplomatic activity at the UN and in Jakarta, the authors show how Indonesian political and military leaders were prevailed upon to accept an international force. At the same time, Australian reporting of the atrocities and how this prompted the Howard government to an intervention that challenged traditional conceptionsof Australia's vital interests, is considered. The conclusion reflects on how thiscase supports the claim that traditional notions of sovereignty are increasinglyconstrained by norms of humanitarian responsibility.