南京市住宅价格时空分异格局及其影响因素分析——基于地理加权回归模型的实证研究

以2009-2017年南京市“一主三副”商品房社区为基本研究单元,运用GIS地统计分析中的普通Kriging插值法对“一主三副”住宅价格空间分布进行模拟和估计,并利用地理加权回归（GWR）模型探究社区属性、商业区位、交通区位、服务区位和景观区位等类型变量对住宅价格的影响规律。研究结果表明：①南京市房价总体上呈现主城向副城递减的中心外围模式,“一主三副”住宅价格空间结构呈现出同心圆和扇形融合的混合模型。②中心位势对主城住宅价格影响相对下降,对副城影响相对提升,交通位势表现出相反的趋势,住宅房龄、绿化环境对住宅价格的影响由主城向副城递减,山水景观的影响由长江沿岸向外围递减。③主副城住宅价格影响因素具有空间异质性,其中主城受距CBD距离、住宅建筑年代和绿化率的影响较大,而副城主要受距地铁站距离、距景观资源距离的影响。     

UNCERTAIN INCOME AND HOUSING PRICE AND LOCATION CHOICE*

ABSTRACT. In this paper, we adapt recent developments in uncertainty modeling to the location choice paradigm. In particular, we analyze the impact of income and housing price uncertainty on housing demand and location demand characteristics in a partial equilibrium framework. We begin by recognizing that housing consumption cannot readily be altered in response to changes in income and price. We find that income and house price risk affect housing and location demands in different ways. Additionally, the spatial characteristics of price risk also affect consumer housing and location demands. For example, if housing price risk is lower farther from the central city, housing demand can be greater in those locations even with the higher transportation cost. Thus, over some locations, the expected price gradient could be positive.     

北京市区轨道交通对周边住房租赁价格的影响分析

基于北京市六环内住房租赁样本的交易数据,本文以北京地铁为例,采用空间回归模型实证探讨轨道交通对合租和整租这两种不同方式下的住房租赁价格的影响。结果表明：①基于轨道交通的就业可达性对于租赁价格会产生显著的增值效应,租客愿意为就业可达性较好的住房支付溢价租金。②地铁站点密度对整租的租赁价格具有正向影响,对合租无显著影响,而地铁换乘线路变量未对租赁价格产生显著影响。③轨道交通对合租和整租住房租赁价格的影响随着距离增加呈现差异化的演变规律。合租方式的租赁价格的影响随着实际路网距离的增加呈现单调递减,距站点500m范围内影响最大;而整租方式呈现倒“U”形变化,在500-1500m范围内增值效应最大。针对研究结果,建议政府加大租赁住房供给的同时要充分考虑轨道交通要素,精准施策以实现公共资源的空间高效配置。     

住宅优势度的理论与评价方法

在总结已有城市住宅价格空间分异相关理论体系的基础上,提出了住宅优势度的概念和理论,认为在城市内部,某住宅相对于其他住宅所具有的优势及其量化程度称为住宅优势度,是住宅相对优势的度量。住宅优势度决定住宅价格,住宅价格是住宅优势度的货币体现。构建了住宅优势度研究的基本框架,阐述了其假设前提,提出了其基本构成要素和综合评价体系。将该视角应用于扬州市的案例研究,结果表明其住宅优势度与住宅价格存在显著的正相关关系。证明本文构建的住宅优势度理论及其评价体系具有合理性和可行性,为城市住宅价格的构成要素与影响机理分析提供一个可供选择的新视角。     

Buying and Borrowing in Adelaide: Mortgage Commitments of Home Buyers, 1986

In April 1986 housing finance allocation procedures were deregulated. The impact of this decision on levels of finance borrowed by households was assessed for 2562 buyers of houses and home units in the Adelaide Statistical Division during May and June 1986. Sales price and mortgage data suggest two tendencies influencing the relationship between price and mortgage. Firstly, low price purchasers have small deposits and borrow heavily to effect their purchase. Secondly, high price buyers, with large deposits, are nevertheless taking out large loans to finance housing. Levels of gearing show market socio-economic bias, low cost buyers being more likely to be overcommitted.     

Housing Market Dynamics Under Stochastic Growth: An Application to the Housing Market in Boulder, Colorado

Recent housing-market studies have modeled slow stock and price adjustment with some success. However, the empirical procedures used in these models break down if housing stocks or prices are driven by stochastic growth. In this paper I suggest an error-correction model for analyzing housing supply and demand under conditions of stochastic growth for a regional housing market. The model is applied to the housing market in Boulder, Colorado from 1981 through 1995—a period of rapid growth in housing values in the area. Long-run housing supply and demand are shown to be inelastic with respect to changes in the price of housing. The results indicate that developers respond more accurately to housing-market disequilibrium attributable to supply-side disturbances than to disturbances generated by changes in the demand for housing. On the other hand, price appreciation is driven primarily by demand disturbances.     

快速工业化城市职住空间平衡与过剩通勤研究——以中山为例

过剩通勤是衡量城市居民职住空间组织和通勤效率的重要指标。本文以快速工业化城市中山市为例,采用2012年中山市交通调查数据,分析中山市职住空间平衡与过剩通勤状况。通过线性规划模型计算发现,中山市居民的通勤距离、过剩通勤率(E)、通勤容量(C_u)使用率均普遍小于国内大城市和西方城市。城市空间结构与土地利用、产业结构与就业结构对中山市的通勤特征的形成有重要的影响。过剩通勤各项指标与户籍、职业类型和家庭收入有显著的相关性。表现为家庭收入越高,过剩通勤率相对较高。机关事业单位和企业行政办公人员通勤效率较低,而产业工人通勤效率较高。非本市户籍人口通勤效率高于本市户籍人口。     

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF HOUSING TRAIT PRICES IN A THIRD WORLD CITY*

ABSTRACT. A first step in the process of economic analysis of housing markets in Third World cities is the econometric analysis of housing trait prices. The information on market price of housing is basic to the derivation/estimation of other market parameters such as housing demand and supply elasticities. In addition, housing trait prices constitute invaluable inputs into the analysis of effects of government housing programs. This paper presents estimates of housing trait prices in a Third World city housing market, the city of Jos in Nigeria. Nonlinear stochastic specification of a policy constrained hedonic price function is presented as an unbiased estimator of housing trait prices. The Box-Cox statistical procedure was employed in the paper to obtain hedonic regression coefficients which are the parameters needed to compute the average prices evaluated both at the mean of each trait and at their margins. The potential uses of housing trait prices for policy analysis are discussed briefly.     

长春市住宅价格空间分异与影响因素研究

基于持续年份住宅数据、利用空间热点分析和地理加权回归模型，对2011年以来长春市住宅价格分布的空间分异现象和住宅价格影响因素分布的空间异质性进行研究。结果显示：①近年来长春市住宅小区存在向内填充与向外扩散并进，圈层扩展和扇形放射融合的演化趋势，其中西南-东南扇面是居住空间扩展的主要方向；②2011年以来长春市住宅价格呈现出以南部为指向的扇面增长的空间特征，高价住宅街区由点状分布到片状扩散。通过半变异函数和冷热点聚类分析方法指出，长春市住宅空间的南北分异现象显著，住宅价格的低值与高值聚类以铁路为界线存在显著的空间隔离；③就POI数量而言，住宅小区周边银行保险、医疗、住宿、休闲娱乐数量对住宅价格产生较强影响，同时以上因素作用效应的空间差异性同样显著。     

沈阳市住房价格空间分异格局及其影响因素研究

本文以我国典型的老工业城市沈阳为例来分析其住房价格空间分异特征与影响机理。通过大数据方法获取该市1450个住宅小区的房价及特征数据，利用Kriging空间插值法模拟其房价空间分布格局，并从社区、公共配套设施和交通出行等方面构建地理加权回归模型，探究各因子对房价空间分布的影响机理。结果表明：①沈阳市住房价格呈现出多中心的空间结构，且长白区域已成为新的价格峰值区。②特征因素对住房价格的影响具有显著的空间异质性，其中，公共配套设施和地铁站对房价表现出较高的影响力，并对住房价格的作用程度呈现明显空间差异性。③受“强政府、弱市场”等的长期影响，政府调控下的城市资源分配不均衡成为沈阳等老工业城市住房价格空间分异的根本原因。     

INVESTMENT RISK AND THE TRANSITION INTO HOMEOWNERSHIP*

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the extent to which house–price uncertainty affects the transition of renter households into homeownership. Using a 14‐year household panel from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics during the years 1984–1997 and measures of the time‐varying risk and return to owner‐occupied housing, we estimate a Cox proportional hazard model of the effect of house–price volatility on the transition into homeownership. Results indicate that house–price uncertainty has a negative and dramatic impact on transitions into homeownership. In addition, we find that the low‐wealth renters are particularly sensitive to house–price risk.     

External validity of hedonic price estimates: Heterogeneity in the price discount associated with having Black and Hispanic neighbors

We examined the hedonic price of neighborhood racial composition across a sample of 180 US housing markets and compared heterogeneity in results. Statistically significant estimated price elasticities calculated at the mean ranged from ?0.61 to 0.2 and ?0.26 to 0.21, for increases in Black and Hispanic neighborhood proportion, respectively. Hedonic price discounts for Black neighborhoods were greater when land supply was more inelastic, when the land value share of the housing cost was greater, and in the southern portion of the United States. Hedonic price discounts associated with Hispanic neighborhoods exhibited no patterns relative to geography or housing supply factors.     

Israeli Settlement in Occupied Territories and its Impact on Housing Prices in Israel

The real price of housing in Israel rose 132 percent from 1959 through 1988. This paper investigates the factors standing behind the temporal movement of the real price of housing. Special emphasise is given to the role of government policies that encouraged settlement in occupied territories. A static model of the housing market is formulated and estimated, which takes into account the interrelation between the housing market in Israel proper and the emerging market in the occupied territories. In addition to confirming the role of demand shifters in accounting for the increase in real housing prices, it is found that settlement in occupied territories was an important moderating factor. According to our estimates, settlement in occupied territories accounts for a moderation of 1 percent in the annual rate of price appreciation during the Labor government, and 2.4 percent during the Likud government. These figures are in line with our expectations in view of the different policies pursued by the rival governments.     

THE ROLE OF INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE SUPPLY OF HOUSING*

ABSTRACT As the housing stock in a city is duplicated, developers must devote greater amounts of resources to the provision of infrastructure. If the production of infrastructure is characterized by decreasing returns to scale, this will cause the price of developable land to increase. The conditions under which an upward-sloping supply curve for housing will result are discussed. Using cross-sectional data for U.S. cities from 1973 to 1982, it is shown that land prices fail to increase with the quantity of construction and that the price elasticity of the supply of housing is infinite.     

THE EXCHANGEABILITY OF HEDONIC PROPERTY PRICE STUDIES*

ABSTRACT. Observations drawn from multiple markets are essential to the construction of indices of housing costs and to measures of demand for housing attributes. It is not evident when multiple markets exist or whether such markets exist for some attributes but not for others. We test for multiple markets by using Bayesian methods to assess the transferability (random exchangeability) of entire hedonic price expressions from one site and time to another, the transferability of hedonic price functions for particular attributes, and the degrees of similarity that hedonic price functions must have in order to be transferable. In our illustrations, price functions for structural housing attributes are generally transferable; prices for neighborhood attributes are not. Therefore, in our illustrations, the desired price indices and demand functions should be estimable for neighborhood attributes, but not for structural ones.     

NEIGHBORHOOD DYNAMICS AND PRICE EFFECTS OF SUPERFUND SITE CLEAN‐UP*

ABSTRACT Numerous hedonic price analyses estimate price effects associated with hazardous waste site remediation or other environmental variation. This paper estimates a neighborhood transition model to capture the direct price effect from Superfund site clean‐up and the indirect price effects arising from residential sorting and changes in investment in the housing stock following clean‐up. First‐difference models of neighborhood change and a national sample are used. This approach fails to find consistent positive direct price effects. Positive indirect effects, however, may arise through residential sorting and neighborhood investment spurred by remediation. The findings can be sensitive to policy endogeneity and model specification.     

租购同权”政策对学区房溢价的影响研究——基于空间特征价格模型的广州实证

在公共服务对住房市场的影响研究领域，学校质量的资本化效应一直是重要话题。本文借鉴边界固定效应思路，使用广州市2016和2019年136所重点小学周边学区房与相邻非学区房的配对面板数据，利用空间特征价格模型定量测度了不同质量等级教育资源的资本化效应，使用双重差分模型检验了“租购同权”政策对重点小学学区房房价和租金溢价的影响。研究结果表明：①广州市教育质量已部分资本化于住房价格和租金之中，且教育资源越优质，资本化程度越高。②“租购同权”政策的实施，并未带来学区房房价和租金溢价的显著变化。③“租购同权”政策对不同质量等级的重点小学学区房房价影响存在异质性，政策实施后省级重点小学的学区房溢价上升，区级重点小学的学区房溢价下降。④“租购同权”政策对于不同区域重点小学学区房房价和租金溢价的影响无显著差异。本文的研究结论可以为制定教育资源供给与配置的均衡化和公平性政策提供参考。     

SPATIAL HEDONIC MODELS OF AIRPORT NOISE,PROXIMITY, AND HOUSING PRICES*

ABSTRACT Despite the refrain that housing prices are determined by “location, location, and location,” few studies of airport noise and housing prices have incorporated spatial econometric techniques. We compare various spatial econometric models and estimation methods in a hedonic price framework to examine the impact of noise on 2003 housing prices near the Atlanta airport. Spatial effects are best captured by a model including both spatial autocorrelation and autoregressive parameters estimated by a generalized moments approach. In our preferred model, houses located in an area in which noise disrupts normal activities (defined by a day–night sound level of 70–75 decibels) sell for 20.8 percent less than houses located where noise does not disrupt normal activities (defined by a day–night sound level below 65 decibels). The inclusion of spatial effects magnifies the negative price impacts of airport noise. Finally, after controlling for noise, houses farther from the airport sell for less; the price elasticity with respect to distance is −0.15, implying that airport proximity is an amenity.     

THE COMPARATIVE STATIC RESPONSE OF RENTAL HOUSING TO A PRICE CHANGE: INFLATION AND GOVERNMENT POLICY*

ABSTRACT. A two period consumer choice model is presented in which housing is treated as a quality differentiated good. The short-run comparative static response of rental housing to a price change is examined via an example, an exogenous increase in the inflation rate. Two stylized facts are alternately used; interest income is taxed, and interest rate ceilings are imposed on small savings deposits. The partial equilibrium distributional impact of inflation, in the context of rental housing markets, is also discussed.     

THE SHIFTING DEMAND FOR HOUSING BY AMERICAN RENTERS AND ITS IMPACT ON HOUSEHOLD BUDGETS: 1940–2010*

From 1940 to 1960 across 20 large U.S. cities, rental housing's price fell, renters’ incomes rose, rent's share in household budgets fell, and, as expected, renters’ real housing consumption increased. From 1970 to 2010, rental housing's price increased, renters’ incomes decreased, but, unexpectedly, renters’ real housing consumption increased. We find neither demographics nor housing supply factors account for the anomalous post‐1970 increase in renters’ housing consumption. We conclude that after 1970 there was a nationwide increase in renters’ preferences for housing consumption. With incomes falling, renters increased housing consumption by decreasing consumption of other necessities including food, clothing, and transportation.