湖南省市镇规模等级结构的动态研究

本文应用市镇人口规模分布理论,研究了湖南省城市人口规模分布结构的动态变化及其基本特征。同时构造了2000年湖南省市镇序秩--规模分布模型,并利用logistic函数对预测结果进行了验证。预测表明:2000年南省市镇人口、市镇化水平分别约为2174万和32%,特大城市和大城市将扩大为长沙、衡阳、湘潭、株洲、岳阳和常德六市。据此对2000年湖南省市镇等级体系进行了规划。     

The urbanisation of Java, 2000–2010: towards ‘the island of mega-urban regions’

The mega-urbanisation process in Java is reflected in the spatial patterns of urban population growth between 2000 and 2010, although there has been a small deceleration in the rate of growth recently. This process is also clearly indicated in the significant increase in the number of urban localities, which reflects in situ urbanisation and rural–urban transformation in Java. Most districts and cities located adjacent to large cities experienced much higher population growth rates, compared to the core areas in cities. The formation of urban belts with a mix of economic activities connecting large cities is greatly expanding, while the small and medium cities, those with population sizes between 100,000 to one million, have tended to stagnate as their role and functions as centres of socio-economic activities are taken over by the large cities. Java’s mega-urbanisation appears unstoppable, and is largely uncontrolled at the present time. It is a daunting challenge for the central and local governments to manage the spatial urban growth in Java in the near future.     

RECENT CHANGES IN THE SIZES OF SIBERIAN CITIES

The author, comparing growth histories of East and West Siberian cities of over 50,000 population through regression and cluster analysis techniques, develops a number of city typologies based on magnitude of population growth, economic specialization, and social infrastructure. It is argued that such typologies are useful in planning because they identify types of cities experiencing similar growth conditions and instances where cities have changed from one type of situation to another. Although the study is limited to 1926-1986, it addresses economic and social components of Siberian urban growth relevant to the interpretation of preliminary results of the 1989 census (translated by H. L. Haslett, Leamington Spa, UK).     

江苏省流动人口分布的格局演变及其驱动因素——基于城乡建设用地的探讨

基于乡镇单元人口普查数据以及相应年份的城乡建设用地数据,运用空间分析和统计分析方法,尝试分析城镇-农村尺度江苏省流动人口分布格局的时空演变特征,并揭示驱动人口流动的动力机制。结果表明：①规模分布特征是具有较长大值右尾部的正偏分布,总体的集聚趋势增强,城镇和乡村集聚流动人口差距变大;②空间呈现高值集聚特征,热点区主要集中在长江以南的城镇,沿江地区流动人口高密度区域逐渐连绵化;③增长变化呈现长江以北地区城镇的流入人口增加、农村的输出人口减少,以及长江以南地区城镇的流入人口快速增加、农村的流入人口普遍增加的特征;④经济发展水平差异、乡镇企业繁荣、交通可达和政策导向是影响江苏省流动人口集聚的四大动力。     

中国城市化水平的综合判断

在测度和评价城市化水平高低时应该对人口城市化水平和城市人口绝对规模进行综合判断。学界通常用市区非农业人口口径来计算城市化水平,对城市外来人口考虑不够。对这种偏小的口径进行修正后发现中国的城市化水平至多略低于同等收入下的国际城市化水平。从城市人口与城市经济的适应程度看,中国的城市劳动生产率与发展状况类似的国家相比有偏低的倾向。因此,与流行的看法相反,中国的城市化水平与经济发展相适应的。笔者认为中国城市的存量部分已经"人满为患",未来城市化的着力点应是城市的增量部分,包括现有城市规模的扩大和新城市的设置。应进行户籍制度、土地制度、创业制度等制度创新,为城市发展提供宽松的外部环境。     

Some Demographic Problems in Belorussia's Urban Population Change in 1959–1971

The relative significance of the natural and migrational components of population change are analyzed for urban places of the Belorussian SSR using a graphic analytical technique proposed by J. W. Webb (Economic Geography, 1963, No. 2). A total of 59 out of 204 urban places in Belorussia are found to have a net out-migration, most of them being places of 5,000 population or less, with few employment opportunities. In 26 places, natural increase is inadequate to compensate for the outflow, resulting in a population loss, and three other places combine an excess of deaths over births with net out-migration. All 28 places of 20,000 population or more combine natural increase with net in-migration, with the natural component predominating in six places and the migrational in 22. In Minsk, the republic capital, and the five other oblast centers, the migrational component represents 70 to 75 percent of the population increment.     

Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization,environmental stress,and urban unrest in Africa

Most research on the security implications of environmental and demographic change does not explicitly distinguish between urban and rural areas. While statistical conflict analyses are increasingly sophisticated with respect to spatial and substantive disaggregation they largely ignore the possibility that urban and rural areas may be affected differently. In Africa, a continent assumed to be particularly vulnerable to the social and economic externalities of environmental and demographic change, less than one percent of the land mass is defined as ‘urban’. Yet, the population that lives in African cities is expected to increase by more than 150% between 2020 and 2050 according to UN population forecasts, massively outpacing rural population growth estimated at 35%. Given the vast social transformation associated with this process of rapid urbanization, understanding the dynamics and consequences of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, and its possible relationship with environmental factors is key to reducing vulnerabilities and facilitating sustainable urban growth on the continent. In this article we argue that high urban population growth may strain the provision of public services in urban areas, heighten competition over scarce urban land, and increase the chances of urban social unrest. We expect population pressure to have the most profound effects on social unrest in peri-urban areas, meaning the urban outskirts. We further investigate whether environmental push factors, operationalized as droughts happening in rural areas proximate to the urban centers, could be driving any effect of urban population growth on social disorder, possibly supporting concerns over climate change-induced social unrest. We test our expectations on a sample of similarly sized urban and peri-urban ‘grid cells’ covering the whole of the African continent for the 1997–2010 period, using geo-coded social unrest data. Our analysis shows that urban population growth is associated with increased unrest in the peri-urban areas only. We find no evidence, however, that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors in the form of nearby droughts. The study contributes insights relevant to the broader debates about possible security implications of hyper-urbanization and climate change.     

The Dynamics of Growth in a Regional Urban System: Southern Ontario, 1851–1971

This study has four objectives: (1) to describe the dynamics of growth in the urban system of southern Ontario over the period from 1851 to 1971; (2) to determine whether this system has evolved in accordance with the Gibrat process of growth; (3) to contribute to the debate on the relationship between city-size distributions and economic development; and (4) to offer some technical and definitional suggestions with regard to the rank-size rule, urban primacy, and the measurement of population concentration. Related Canadian studies covering similar time periods are those of Simmons (1974), who has analysed the growth of larger cities (10,000 and over) at the national scale, and Bannister (1975), who has described the extent of spatial autocorrelation in the growth rates of southern Ontario's incorporated centres. Like Simmons and Bannister we are less concerned with the fortunes of particular places than with the response of the urban system as a whole to expansionary forces. We are centrally concerned with the phenomenon of differential growth (Borchert, 1967; Ward, 1971, pp. 11–49; Muller, 1976, 1977). The fact that towns grow at different rates implies changes in the frequency distribution of city size and in the level of concentration of the urban population. These changes, in turn, have interesting consequences for urban systems theory.     

环南海区域16个典型沿海城市的用地空间增长规律研究

本文选取中国和东南亚十个国家16个人口 30万以上城市作为研究对象,采用1990年、2000年、2010年和2018年4期城市建成用地数据,应用城市土地密度函数和公共边测度方法,计算各时段城市空间增长速率以及用地扩张模式,并简要探讨城市空间扩张与人口、产业之间的关系.主要结论为:①1990-2018年间,广州、万象等城...     

吉林省城市体系等级规模结构研究

等级规模结构是城市体系的三大结构之一,其特征可以反映出城市在不同规模层次中的分布状况及城市人口集中或分散的程度,有助于认识城市体系发展所处的阶段。通过统计数据计算分析,运用分形理论,发现吉林省城市体系等级规模结构满足位序-规模分布规律,城市规模分布的均衡程度较高,中小城市比较发育,首位城市垄断作用不突出,缺乏大城市。在吉林省城市体系动态变化过程中,等级规模结构相对稳定且不断趋于集中。在此基础上提出重点培育通化、延吉等大城市;继续扩大长春规模,发挥整体效益;加强交通网络建设;加快矿业城市可持续发展等建议。     

THE SOVIET FAR EAST: A REPORT ON URBAN AND RURAL SETTLEMENT AND POPULATION CHANGE, 1966–1989

This article provides a general overview of trends in urban-rural population change and evolution of the settlement system in the Soviet Far East since 1966, incorporating data published in the recent national statistical yearbooks and the preliminary 1989 census report (Pravda, April 29, 1989, p. 2). Total population in the Soviet Far East increased from 5,435,000 in 1966 to 7,941,000 by January 12, 1989, with the share of the urban population now comprising over three-quarters of the total. Migration patterns into and out of the region are discussed and cities planned for expansion are identified.     

Urban geography and protest mobilization in Africa

Urbanization has long been seen by scholars and policymakers as a disruptive process that can contribute to social and political unrest, yet there is little cross-national quantitative empirical research on the topic. In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the links between urban geography and the incidence of protests (i.e. demonstrations, riots and strikes) in African countries since 1990. In contrast to previous studies, we are careful to distinguish between urban population scale effects, urban population ratio effects, population rate-of-change effects and urban population distribution effects. We also provide an explicit test of the long-standing hypothesis that ‘over-urbanization’ increases the risk of civil unrest. Employing multilevel negative binomial models that control for key political and economic variables we find that urban population size and the number of large cities in a country are both positively and significantly associated protest incidence. By contrast, we find that a country's level of urbanization is negatively associated with protest incidence and reject the over-urbanization hypothesis: higher levels of urbanization are associated with less frequent protests at all income levels. We find no evidence that the pace of urban population growth or urban primacy significantly influence protest mobilization. In sum, our results provide a nuanced picture of the relationship between urban geography and protest incidence that challenges conventional wisdom and contemporary hyperbole about the dangers of ‘rapid urbanization’ in Africa in particular, and developing countries more generally.     

Quantitative Regularities in the Urbanization of the USSR

Simple arithmetical formulas are proposed for the study and analysis of urbanization processes. The formulas establish functional relationships between the urbanization level at the beginning of a particular study period, the changes in urban and rural population during the period, and the urbanization level at the end of the period. The relative share of administrative centers and of other urban places in a particular major civil division in total urban population is also considered. Different types of urbanization processes are discussed and plotted on a graphic-analytical model (nomogram). Contrary to general assumption, it is found that in the USSR it is not the very large cities (500,000 and over) that are increasingly concentrating urban population, but the next lowest size class (100,000–500,000). Further research into urbanization processes in particular spatial settlement systems is urged.     

From temporary to permanent townsmen: migrants from the Malalaua District,Papua New Guinea

An attempt is made to explain how a group of people moved from being newcomers to town in the 1940s to being one of the most permanent and stable residential elements in Papua New Guinea's towns in the 1970s. Circular and permanent migration, as Young maintains, are not 2 distinct processes, and both initial rural urban movements and migrants' decisions to return or not to return home are examined simultaneously. The hypothetical career of a migrant is considered all the way from village residence to permanent urban residence along with the different decision points that might vary this career. In this case study focus is on 2 sets of factors that affect migration decisions: an imbalance in rural and urban economic conditions and the effects of the migration process itself. The people discussed come from what is now known as the Malalaua District of the Gulf Province and are referred to as Malalauas. Historically, there are several feastures of Malalaua urban migration that are important. Malalaua migration began earlier than that of most urban migrant groups in Papua New Guinea. In the 1963 urban population there were a number of Malalauas who first came to Port Moresby before or during World War 2. Migration from the Malalaua District has continued in a steady stream from the 1940s to the 1970s, although there is no evidence on absolute numbers of new migrants in any 1 year. The pattern of Malalaua migration to towns over the entire period has been largely one of the movement of young single adult males and young female adults moving to town on marriage. Both the absolute numbers of migrants and the proportion of Malalauas absent from the District have risen rapidly over the 20 years to 1972. Finally, children are being born to Malalaua migrants in town. Malalauas are possibly the migrant group most firmly established in town. The Malalauas are one of the most longterm and residential groups in Port Moresby. In Papua New Guinea as a whole they must be one of the migrant groups with the greatest commitment to urban living. Economic factors have been very important in Malalau decisions to leave the village, particularly the decisions of adult males. The migration process itself has increasingly affected migrant decisions: factors such as the diminished attraction of a depopulated rural community, a change in tastes towards urban based ways of living, the growth of strong personal and family ties among urban residents, and a simultaneous reduction in such ties with rural residents. It is argued that this 2nd set of factors over time increases in importance relative to rural-urban economic imbalance as an explanation of migration behavior. In general, rural urban economic opportunities have become less important over time. So in the 1970s and 1980s it would be argued that many Malalauas would not respond to increases in urban unemployment of rural incomes by moving back to the village. They would be permanent townspeople. This explanation of migration decisions is dynamic: in the history of individuals and groups the context and thus the explanation of decisions change.     

意象与现实:宋代城市等级刍议

人口数量是反映城市发展水平的重要指标。不少学者在论著中,从不同的侧面提出了他们关于宋代城市等级的看法,研究思路都是通过广泛搜集文献记载中偶存的宋代城市人口数据的片断信息,归纳得出结论,但相互间歧见颇大。其实,宋人关于城市人口规模的表述更多地是出于意象,宋人的这种意象,与其说主要依据于实际人口数量,不如说依据于城市的行政地位,因此在时人意象中城市规模的差序格局就形成了都城百万家、路治十万家、州军与重要县城万家以及一般县城数千家这样几个等级分明的序列。这说明至少就某种程度而言,在两宋士人的心目中,城市的行政地位比它们的实际规模更为重要。讨论宋代城市发展史不应忽视这一史实。     

都市区与非都市区城镇用地扩张的驱动力研究——以长三角地区为例

本文利用土地变更调查数据与经济社会统计数据,分析2001-2006年间长三角地区都市区与非都市区以及都市区内部不同单元的城镇工矿用地变动差异和主要影响因素,探讨都市区城镇用地扩展的驱动机制及演变特征。研究发现,虽然长三角地区城镇用地的整体扩张速度正趋于放缓,但变化趋势在不同类型的区域间存在明显差异。都市区比非都市区增长地更快,其中外围县地区超越中心市成为新一轮的增长热点地区。利用人口、非农产业、房地产投资等社会经济活动指标数据所做的回归分析表明,非农产业的发展是推动都市区城镇用地扩展的关键因素,而对非都市区的城镇工矿用地扩展而言,城镇人口集聚的拉动仍在起主要影响作用。在都市区内部存在功能分工的背景下,中心市与外围县在驱动因素和效果上存在差异。     

Beautiful city: Leisure amenities and urban growth

Modern urban economic theory and policymakers are coming to see the provision of consumer‐leisure amenities as a way to attract population, especially the highly skilled and their employers. However, past studies have arguably only provided indirect evidence of the importance of leisure amenities for urban development. In this paper, we propose and validate the number of tourist trips and the number of crowdsourced picturesque locations as measures of consumer revealed preferences for local lifestyle amenities. Urban population growth in the 1990–2010 period was about 10% points (about one standard deviation) higher in a metro area that was perceived as twice more picturesque. This measure ties with low taxes as the most important predictor of urban population growth. “Beautiful cities” disproportionally attracted highly educated individuals and experienced faster housing price appreciation, especially in supply‐inelastic markets. In contrast to the generally declining trend of the American central city, neighborhoods that were close to central recreational districts have experienced economic growth, although at the cost of minority displacement.     

Systems Of Urban Places

A method of “structural chains” is proposed for the analysis of regional urban systems. Each chain is made up of a sequence of numerical elements representing the average population of places at various levels of urban development, from small mining or forestry settlements to large polyfunctional cities of regional or national rank. The absence of a particular category in a region is marked in the chain by a zero. The structural chains of local urban systems can be grouped into tables reflecting the structure of a regional urban system and its local variations. The key characteristics of urban systems reflected by these chains are: the number of elements or levels of development; the number of zeros and their position in the chain, reflecting the degree of development of the urban hierarchy; and the height of the regional tables (number of horizontal rows), representing the number of local urban structures. The method is tested and illustrated by the urban systems of the Dnieper-Donets and Black Sea regions of the Ukraine, the Upper Volga region, and the urban system of the Tatar ASSR.     

Smart growth strategies,transportation and urban sprawl: simulated futures for Hamilton,Ontario

North American cities have undergone dramatic changes over the last century. Locations that were once inconvenient have become accessible through extensive road networks leading to population decentralization from the traditional urban centre to suburbia, creating polycentric sprawls from once monocentric communities. Hamilton, Ontario is one such city. The decentralization and urban decline of the city is widely attributed to sprawling development. This change in the sociospatial structure creates challenges for transportation planners as we see greater automobile dependency, greater commuting distances and increased congestion. Smart growth policies such as urban residential intensification (URI) aim to increase population densities in the urban core. This exploratory study estimates the benefits of such policies from a transportation aspect. It is predicted that the City of Hamilton will experience household growth of approximately 80,000 households over the period 2005–2031. Using IMULATE, an integrated urban transportation and land‐use model, a variety of development scenarios model this anticipated growth. Changes in vehicular emissions, traffic congestion and energy consumption as a result of URI are examined. Models of the land‐use/transportation relationship demonstrate how increasing population densities within a city's urban centre drastically reduce congestion, emissions and gasoline consumption.     

Demand-Threshold Estimation for Business Activities in Rural Saskatchewan

Historically, a common technique used to assess a community's ability to support various business activities has been demand-threshold estimation. The concept of a demand threshold has been applied at the community level by estimating a relationship between community population and the number of establishments of a particular kind in the community. The approach taken in this research incorporates a spatial dimension (community urban proximity) in addition to community population to estimate demand thresholds. Using a count data technique, demand thresholds are estimated for 27 different business activities found in 584 rural Saskatchewan communities in 1990. Both population and urban proximity are found to be important explanatory variables.