Population Trends in a Contested Pseudo-State: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

A U.S. population geographer specializing in the former Soviet Union surveys the results of an October 2005 census conducted in a contested pseudo-state known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). Data from the enumeration provide the first credible information about recent population characteristics, including nationality composition and migration from the war-torn republic. The data make it possible to ascertain the crude magnitudes of population losses in the republic's constituent rayons as well as changes resulting from deaths and expulsion of ethnic Armenians and/or Azerbaijanis. Changes documented since the last (1989) Soviet census in the region indicate that the current republic's population differs quite dramatically from that of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of Azerbaijan, complicating efforts to broker a lasting peace agreement between the pseudostate's two neighbors. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23, 1 figure, 1 table, 36 references.     

中国核武器的发展与中苏关系的破裂(1954-1962)(连载一)

近年来中国发展核武器的问题在中苏关系的演进中,特别是在中苏关系破裂中的作用引起学术界的重视.作者根据陆续出版和解密的中国和苏联方面的相关文献档案,对中国发展核武器的基本战略考虑、中国核武器的发展与中苏关系演进的互动关系、苏联政策的变化的动因以及此种变化对中苏关系破裂的影响进行深入分析:认为中国核武器的发展与中苏关系的破裂是一个互动的过程.中国发展核武器在当时背景下,只能争取苏联的援助,苏联向中国提供发展核武器的技术,有其特殊历史背景.1958年下半年后,随着两国在意识形态、对时代和国际形势以及核武器的态度等问题产生重大分歧,这些事件直接或间接促使苏联停止援助中国发展核武器.这成为中苏关系破裂的重要标志,也成为日后中苏论战的一个重要论题.     

Dismantling the Soviet Security System. Soviet–Finnish Negotiations on Ending Their Friendship Agreement, 1989–91.

The Soviet Union had tied Finland to its security system through the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance (FCMA) signed between the two in 1948. As the Soviet Union began to disintegrate at the end of the 1980s, Finland exited the Soviet sphere of influence – the region controlled through a system of bilateral and multilateral agreements. This article analyses the Soviet–Finnish negotiations to discard the FCMA treaty as a case study of the changing Soviet European neighbourhood policy. It gives important insights into the disintegration of the Soviet foreign policy mechanism during the Gorbachev era as it elaborates on both the intra-bureaucracy conflicts between the Kremlin and the Soviet foreign ministry, MID, and later between the Soviet central government and the Russian republic. As Finland was part of the Soviet security system, analysing Finland's exit from it sheds light onto the crucial change that took place in the Soviet foreign policy doctrine during the perestroika years. The Gorbachev leadership's decision not to defend its sphere of influence with force paved way for the upheavals of 1989 which led to the Cold War's end.     

Delayed Underurbanization and the Closed-City Effect: The Case of Ust'-Kamenogorsk

A field study conducted by the author based on a 2001 survey (N = 3,136) compares data on population change at the individual settlement level from the 1999 census of Kazakhstan with unpublished data from the 1989 census. The author documents the unique phenomenon of "delayed underurbanization" in the formerly closed East Kazakh city of Ust'- Kamenogorsk (ca. 300,000 inhabitants in 2002), arguing that the limited financial resources of rural migrants to that city (recently accessible to residents of its rural hinterland) have created spatial patterns of residence and commuting similar to those under the Soviet underurbanization model for open cities. The study, covering an area dominated by militaryindustrial and/or mining-metallurgical economies, is relevant to research focused on other formerly closed cities throughout the Soviet Union. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J61, O15, O18. 5 figures, 25 references.     

Population Trends in the Russian Federation: Reflections on the Legacy of Soviet Censorship and Distortions of Demographic Statistics

A noted demographer assesses the reliability of data in the 1989 census of the Soviet Union for 14 regions of the Russian Federation affected by distortions designed by Soviet authorities to conceal the populations of "secret towns" of the military-industrial complex. More specifically, using declassified population data available but only selectively published following the disclosure of these hidden settlements (and their populations) in 1994, he re-estimates the urban populations of these regions in 1989, and compares differences in 1989-2002 population change indicated by use of the original and adjusted 1989 data sets. Distortions of up to 10 percent of the regional populations (and as high as 13 percent for their eponymous regional capitals) are examined in light of their implications for the calculation of a variety of demographic and population-based indicators in studies of Russia comparing the late Soviet and early post-Soviet periods. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 8 tables, 35 references.     

Sub-regionalism in the Newly Independent States

Since 1989, six new sub-regional cooperation groups have emerged as the states of northern, central and eastern Europe work towards forging relationships with one another and their neighbours to east and west. Five of these groups are still in existence and have had considerable success in establishing cooperative relations in many areas outside the realm of purely military security. The authors suggest that such sub-regional groups could provide a useful model in the search for stability among the Newly Independent states of the former Soviet Union. Acknowledging and describing the ways in which this environment differs markedly form that of northern, central and eastern Europe, they point out the suitability of the model to the particular circumstances of the post-Soviet republics.     

论日本关东军的武器流向

有关日本关东军的武器装备流向,史学界一直没有明确的说法。前苏联方面有4种相关数字,但这些数字有笔误和夸大的成分。从东北解放军武器增多的数量和时间来分析,可以看出投降关东军的武器装备有支援中共、散落民间和运往前苏联的三个流向。     

THE FORMATION OF THE INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF THE KURSK MAGNETIC ANOMALY

The industrial complex in the area of the vast iron-ore bearing province known as the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly (Central Russia) has been shaped in the past by an advantageous economic-geographic situation in the heart of the European USSR, by the availability of labor resources and by the presence of a wide range of agricultural raw materials for industry (sugar beets, sunflower, hemp). Further development will hinge on the massive use of mineral resources, both iron ore for the iron and steel industry, and cement materials in the overburden of open-pit iron mines. In 1975 the KMA will supply one-sixth of all the iron ore mined in the Soviet Union. About 60 percent of the ore (direct-shipping ore and concentrates derived from low grade-quartzites) moves to nearby plants at Lipetsk and Tula, and 25 percent moves to the Urals. If plans for a 12-million-ton integrated iron and steel plant for the Comecon countries materialize, 40 percent of the ore will be consumed locally, still leaving 60 percent for shipment to other steel plants. See also Soviet Geography, November 1974, pp. 593–94.     

A Guarded Courtship: Soviet Cultural Diplomacy in Iran from the Late 1940s to the 1960s

By bringing to bear previously unstudied Soviet archival documents and conducting firsthand interviews with former diplomats, the article traces the ways in which the Soviet Union sought out opportunities to reinvigorate deteriorated Soviet?Iranian ties through cultural organizations and events in Iran during the decades following World War II. A variety of Soviet cultural representatives—from wrestlers to classical musicians to scholars of Iranian literature—were marshaled for this effort, which bore unexpected fruit considering the modest expectations of the Soviet leadership, ideological differences between the two countries, and increasingly dominant US cultural projection. The connections between cultural ties and state goals, Iranian perceptions of Russia, and the Soviet/Russian sympathies of some members of the shah’s government are among sub-themes examined.     

Geographical Approaches to the Study of Extractive Industries

The locational patterns of development of extractive industry in the USSR have been neglected as an object of study in Soviet economic geography. The geography of resource-based industry is determined by two groups of factors: natural and economic. Research is needed to establish the quantitative parameters of the effect of natural factors on location. The most significant economic factor of location is technical progress. A basic problem in the development of extractive industry in the Soviet Union has been the areal disparity between availability of resources and resource use. The disparity is most evident between the western and eastern zones of the country. Soviet economic regions can be grouped according to their share in the gross output of all extractive industry. Within groups, regions can be distinguished according to the extent to which available resources are being used. Resource-based industries tend to form the core of industrial complexes, particularly in pioneering regions where the economy is in its early stages of development. Five types of resource complexes are distinguished: energy-oriented complexes, ore-based complexes, fishery complexes, timber complexes, and nonmetallic mineral complexes.     

Scientific Results of the Trip of the Delegation of Soviet Geographers to the United States

A report of the Soviet delegation on research by government agencies, universities, and other institutions on the use and development of natural resources and on practical application of such research. The Soviet Union is found to be ahead in some theoretical aspects, but the author calls for detailed study of some of the practical applications of resource research in the United States for possible use in similar Soviet work.     

A Geography of Consumption and a Geography of Services

Professor Kovalev, a specialist in rural settlement, proposes the development of two new branches of economic geography in the Soviet Union that would be concerned with the study of regional differences in consumption and services. The proposal reflects the increasing concern of the Soviet party and government for raising the living standards of the population. Kovalev discusses a number of methodological problems, such as the availability of data.     

SOME ASPECTS OF THE SPATIAL ORGANIZATION OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE USSR

Studies of the geography of higher education have become increasingly common in the Soviet Union in view of two basic issues: (1) what some consider an excessive concentration of educational and research centers in Moscow and Leningrad, and a sparse distribution of such institutions in some other regions of the USSR; (2) the need for relating the specialization of institutions of higher learning to the basic economic activities of the regions in which they are situated. The author develops a number of measures such as indices of localization of undergraduates, graduate students and holders of academic degrees to assess the significance of higher education in various regions of the Soviet Union.     

THE LOCATION OF METAL-INTENSIVE AND LABOR-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN THE EASTERN REGIONS

The author argues against the widespread view (stated in several articles in Soviet Geography) that labor-intensive industries should be kept out of Siberia because of the shortage of labor resources in that region. Taking the specific example of labor-intensive machinery industry such as instrument-making, as opposed to steel-intensive industry, he points out that labor-intensive plants, by virtue of their smaller size, usually have smaller labor requirements than large heavy-machinery manufacturing plants. Moreover, he argues, location must not be based on total population or total labor resources of a region, but on the availability of so-called free (nonemployed) labor resources, which consist largely of women and of young people just entering upon a career. This category of labor resources happens to be greater in the eastern regions than in the western regions of the Soviet Union. In fact, one reason for the net out-migration from Siberia, according to the author, is that second and third members of households find it difficult to obtain jobs in a regional economy that is largely oriented toward male employment (in extractive industry, timber felling, etc.). The introduction of labor-intensive industries into existing Siberian industrial complexes would thus help provide employment to other household members and eliminate one reason for out-migration.     

The Role of Eastern Siberia in Solving Some of the Economic Problems of the Pacific Basin

The abundance of resources in the Soviet Far East and Eastern Siberia, combined with the known scarcity of fuel and energy supplies and certain raw materials in the countries of the Pacific basin, suggests that the resources of the eastern regions of the Soviet Union, could, if properly developed, find a wide market in countries bordering on the Pacific Ocean.     

The Energy Factor in Iran–Turkmenistan Relations

The collapse of the Soviet Union brought about major upheavals in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Among the newly independent states, those that were endowed with energy resources set out on the path of economic growth. The energy resources in Central Asia also attracted outside powers to the region. Moreover, the status of these countries as landlocked, and Russia's monopoly over energy pipelines, led these countries to search for new partners in order to reduce their dependency. This added a new dimension to the political, economic and security equations of the region. In this article, Turkmenistan is studied as a former Soviet republic and Iran as a regional actor that has interests in the region's energy dynamics. The role of energy in the relations between Turkmenistan and Iran is examined. The article proposes that the energy factor has produced a favorable atmosphere for closer relations between the two countries. However, Tehran needs to overcome a number of challenges in expansion of its relations with Turkmenistan, the most important of which is the United States' effective opposition to any Iranian initiative in the field of energy in the region.     

2002年俄罗斯联邦的民族状况

2002年俄罗斯联邦进行了苏联解体后的第一次全国人口普查。本文根据此次人口普查的资料描述和分析了俄罗斯民族数量的变化、人口10万以上民族的性别和城乡居民比例以及掌握俄语的情况,也对土著小民族以及没有族属的人的情况等进行了介绍和分析。文章认为,苏联和俄罗斯联邦的民族数量不确定的原因,主要与其缺乏统一、连贯的划分民族的国家原则有关。     

Crisis Amid Plenty Revisited: Comments on the Problematic Potential of Russian Oil

Two economic geographers specializing in the mineral resources of the former Soviet Union and Russia discuss a paper on Russian oil published in this journal by a seasoned oberserver of this critical subject since the early 1970s. The authors comment on the behavior of Russian oil companies such as Yukos, Russian economic policy in mid-2004, and the role of foreign companies, capital, and advanced technology. Recalling mistaken estimates of declining Soviet oil output in the late 1970s, they outline factors that suggest a somewhat more optimistic outcome could be possible, but note that the drift toward government control, which runs counter to the oil industry's efficiency, is not a positive sign. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18, 27 references.     

Book Review

In the absence of Soviet statistics on commuting it is estimated that, as of the late 1960's, at least 10 million people commuted to work or study in the Soviet Union, or about 12 percent of the number of public-sector workers and students. Sample surveys have shown that commuting is found not only in the suburban zones of large cities, but also around small towns, and that it involves as many as 3 million residents of rural areas who travel to work in urban places. The maximum commuting radius in the Soviet Union appears to be about 50 km, with the number of commuters dropping off sharply beyond that limit. In terms of social composition, commuters tend to be mainly young men of relatively low skills. An assessment of commuting, from the Soviet point of view, lists both positive features, such as the fuller use of labor resources around a large urban center, and negative features, such as the unproductive loss of time involved in commuting over long distances.     

Observations on Soviet Imperial Disintegration

A prominent American specialist and observer of post-Soviet affairs examines the shifting balance between forces of disintegration and reintegration in the successor states of the former Soviet Union from the early 1990s to the present, with particular emphasis on actions taken by Russia. A concluding section focuses on observations relevant to an assessment of the extent to which recent trends toward reintegration may persist in the future. 8 references.