Urban-Rural Voting Differences in Russian Elections, 1995-1996: A Rayon-Level Analysis

Two specialists on the electoral geography of post-Soviet Russia examine the results of the second national 1995 parliamentary election and the June and July 1996 presidential elections in the Russian Federation. The scale of analysis is the rayon level, based on a data set of roughly 300 rayons drawn from nine representative oblasts across the country. The data permit urban-rural and regional patterns in electoral behavior to be elucidated with greater precision. Although urban and rural effects are pronounced, the analysis reveals the importance of many other local contextual factors less amenable to quantification. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers H10, O10, R1O. 1 figure, 7 tables, 24 references.     

Devolution,Constitutional Development,and the Russian North

A prominent American Sovietologist examines a range of issues surrounding the involuntary migration of Russian populations from the non-Russian republics of the former USSR. Among the questions addressed are possible magnitudes of in-migration into Russia (with special attention paid to conditions in one of the major source regions, Central Asia), attitudes in Russia regarding appropriate policy with respect to treatment of co-nationals in the near abroad and whether their return to Russia would have a positive or negative impact, and conditions in areas of Russia that presently are absorbing the greatest numbers of migrants. The assertion that Russian policy should seek aggressively to prevent the out-migration of Russian populations in the near abroad is assessed critically. 1 table, 1 figure, 10 references.     

俄国革命中的立宪会议问题

立宪会议问题对于1917年俄国革命进程具有重大影响。立宪会议被赋予解决所有迫切问题的重负,承载了人民群众的主要期待和希望,但临时政府受继续进行战争的政策牵制,没有把它作为紧迫的任务来解决,因而延缓了和平、土地、民族等迫切问题的解决。十月前后布尔什维克对立宪会议的态度从积极主张到彻底否定,这一变化除了现实政治原因之外,也有思想理论上的根源。而俄国社会、经济、文化的相对落后,是影响立宪会议命运的深层因素。     

Redrawing the Political Map of Russia: The Duma Election of December 2003

Two experts on the electoral geography of post-Soviet Russia examine the disruption of the relatively stable pattern of political choice evident in the returns from the December 2003 elections to the Russian Duma. The paper documents major shifts, relative to three previous Duma elections, in turnout and the percentage share of vote among major parties and broad party groupings (liberal/reform, nationalist, KPRF/Agrarian, and centrist). Prominent among the latter are the resurgence of nationalist parties, the losses suffered by the communists, the virtual elimination of the reform parties from the national legislative scene, and the consolidation of power by the favorite party of the Kremlin. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, O10, R10. 9 figures, 2 tables, 21 references.     

The Geography of the April 25 (1993) Russian Referendum

Two geographers analyze the spatial dimension of results of the historic Russian referendum of April 25, 1993, which produced dramatic regional differences in the degree of support for President Boris Yel'tsin and his economic reform policies. The paper correlates the outcome of the referendum with demographic and economic performance variables for the political-administrative units of Russia. It thus assesses the extent to which approval of Yel'tsin was associated with such variables as urbanization, education, white collar work force, percentage of workers in agriculture, and age of the population. 5 figures, 5 tables, 23 references.     

1935年萨尔全民公决与英国外交

根据《凡尔赛和约》,德国的重要工业基地萨尔划归国联管理15年,期满后将通过全民投票的方式决定萨尔的归属。1933年希特勒在德国上台后萨尔地方治安日趋动荡,公决能否顺利进行一度成了悬案。在如何维护萨尔地区秩序、确保公决顺利实施的问题上,英国起初反对法国准备动用军队的主张,其后又转变态度,同意组建以英意军队为主的国际部队负责萨尔公决期间的秩序。英国在是否出兵维持萨尔秩序这个问题上所做的政策调整是贯彻其对德绥靖政策的需要,其根本目的是希望萨尔问题的顺利解决能够为恢复与德国的裁军谈判创造条件。但是,萨尔的顺利回归助长了德国毁约扩军的野心,最终使英国的盘算落了空。     

Constitutional Reforms in Jordan: A Critical Analysis

This study aims to shed light on the experience of the Jordanian constitutional reforms during the era of King Abdullah II and the Arab Spring. Moreover, this study provides a comprehensive and integrated view of these vital reforms and the democratic process in Jordan. With due consideration to the fact that the constitution represents the backbone of any political regime, constitutional developments in Jordan have been reviewed since the first Jordanian Constitution was drafted in 1928. By analyzing the most recent constitutional amendments, we identify the main features of these amendments as well as their strengths and weaknesses, potential for success or risk of failure, and the positive and negative reactions thereto. This study provides a summary and recommendation, notably, the need for further constitutional amendments to consolidate the process of reform and democracy in Jordan.     

Geography and Election Results: Disproportionality and Bias at the 1993–2004 Elections to the Australian House of Representatives

The Alternative Vote system used for elections to the Australian House of Representatives is generally believed to disadvantage the Australian Labor Party in contests with the Liberal and National parties. However, most analyses on which such conclusions are based over-simplify the situation by not separating out the translation of votes into seats according to whether the election outcome in a district is determined using the first-preference or two-party preferred (2PP) votes. Analyses of bias at five recent elections which recognise that separation find little bias against either party in the districts where the determination used the 2PP votes (i.e. no candidate received a majority of the first preferences), but considerable bias in those where the outcome was decided on first-preferences. Furthermore, that bias was not in one direction, but rather favoured the largest party in each of those contests. The reason for this is identified in the geography of support for the two parties, which produces the equivalent of a ‘cracked gerrymander’ in sufficient districts to have a significant impact on the outcome.     

第一届国会选举再论

第一届国会选举在中国政治现代化过程中具有重要意义。本文力图从各政党对选举问题重视、政党候选人争取选票方式以及选民投票心态等方面对此次选举加以评析,借以说明它基本上是在法律许可范围内进行,各选民自由地表达了自己的政治倾向。从总体上看,这是一次成功的选举。     

奉天省第一届国会议员选举析论

民初国会议员的选举是国家权力机关的选举,是真正具有资产阶级民主制度意义的选举,因此,它具有开创性的意义。从奉天省的选举来看,虽然有各种问题存在,但基本上是按照法定程序进行的。在选举过程中出现的问题,被揭示出来后,有的经过协调,重新举行选举,有的进入诉讼程序,具备了一定的公开性。通过国会议员选举这个平台,各个政党进行了多种多样的竞选活动,使民初政坛首次出现了多样的政治声音。从奉天省第一届国会议员选举的实际过程来看,基本上体现了现代选举制度的法制化、公开化、规范化原则。但我们也看到,这次选举中所表现出来的选民占人口比例过低、选民漏登记、选举管理疏漏、竞选失范等等问题,都说明中国的选举制度还仅仅是一个开始,还有很长的路要走。     

Foreign Direct Investment and Democratic Development in the Russian Provinces: A Preliminary Analysis

Foreign investment in Russia has consistently lagged behind East European countries throughout the last decade. Although formidable obstacles to attracting foreign investment remain throughout the country, some of Russia's 89 provinces have been more successful than others in creating attractive investment environments. One reason for this varied success may be related to the degree of economic and political elite consensus that exists in some regions. This, in turn, may help in the formulation of incentives to attract foreign investors. However, the political consensus that helps to establish a stable policy environment for foreign investment may well imperil pluralistic political development in the long run. Thus, we must be wary of conflating foreign investor interest with liberal politics and democratic development in Russia's regions.     

Election Campaigns and Television News Coverage: The Case of the 2001 Australian Election

This paper examines the patterns of television news coverage of the political parties, their leaders and the issues they raised during the 2001 Australian federal election campaign. By focusing on some issues, parties and leaders, television has long been argued to constrain voters' evaluations. We find that television news coverage in the 2001 Australian election campaign focused primarily on international issues, especially terrorism and asylum seekers, and on the two major parties—virtually to the exclusion of coverage of the minor parties and their leaders. Within the major party ‘two-horse race’, television gave substantially more coverage to the leaders than to the parties themselves, thereby sustaining what some have called a ‘presidential’-style political contest. John Howard emerged as the winner in the leaders' stakes, garnering more coverage than Labor's Kim Beazley.     

清季俄罗斯文馆延聘俄人教习研究

在俄罗斯文馆存在的一个半世纪里,先后有多名俄人担任教习之职。康熙年间,文馆教习由俄国商队成员、降人及后裔充任,教习队伍不稳定,语言水平也不高。从雍正初期起,文馆开始延聘俄国东正教驻北京传教士团成员担任教习,其中罗索欣、弗拉德金和列昂季耶夫与满人富勒赫合作编写出中国第一本俄语教科书。自道光年间起,有4位传教士团领班被俄罗斯文馆聘为教习,但由于鸦片战争爆发后中俄关系的实质已经由以往的平等交往转向了俄国伙同西方列强对中国进行瓜分,他们并未发挥出"协同教授"的作用,更多时候是将在文馆兼职作为为俄国政府探听清廷内情的机会或手段。     

Political Marketing and the 2008 New Zealand Election: A Comparative Perspective

Political marketing is a growing phenomenon and few political parties would seek to compete in an election without utilising at least some of its tools to help them understand their market and compete more effectively. The current range of tools available includes pre-election strategy, branding, e-marketing, opposition research, multiple forms of direct marketing and GOTV utilising market segmentation, tangibility tools, insights marketing and leadership re-marketing. New developments in practice transfer quickly between countries. In the 2008 New Zealand election, both major parties, Labour and National, utilised different aspects of political marketing with varied effects, showing the importance and limitations of global strategies, as well as the need for parties to utilise all aspects of political marketing for government and re-election.     

Interest rates and the 2004 Australian Election

During the October 2004 Australian federal election campaign the expected or possible effect of the election outcome on interest rates was a key point of differentiation between the Australian Labor Party and the Liberal–National Party coalition. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we examine whether this effect was a significant factor in the election outcome, as measured by the percentage swing towards the coalition in each electorate. Second, we use standard methodology from financial economics to examine whether the election outcome had an effect on interest rates. Contrary to media coverage of the campaign, we find that the election result did have an effect on interest rates but that the possibility of interest rate changes was not a dominant factor in the election result.