Household Incomes in Central Asia: The Case of Post-Soviet Kazakhstan

Two European geographers present the findings of a sizeable survey (n = 7,515) providing a detailed geographical analysis of household incomes and reliance on personal subsidiary garden plots across Kazakhstan. The authors focus on assessing the extent to which Kazakhstan's rising GDP during the post-Soviet period has coincided with an increase in the general population's personal income and ability to secure adequate food supplies for personal consumption. The fine geographical scale of analysis of the survey data (significantly less coarse than oblast-level data) enabled them to identify regions characterized by "trickle-down" income, largely centered on the country's two main urban centers and areas of resource exploitation. The patterns revealed in the paper have relevance to the debate concerning the uneven distribution of benefits from resource exploitation (notably oil and gas) to Kazakhstan's population. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: D100, D310, I300, Q120, R290. 2 figures, 6 tables, 51 references.     

Poverty in Transition: An Ethnographic Critique of Household Surveys in Post-Soviet Central Asia

Post-Soviet transitions have prompted a search for new policy tools and methods of data collection. The shift from universal welfare provision under the Soviet system to targeted assistance and poverty monitoring has stimulated a new interest in the measurement of living standards and poverty lines. This has promoted the use of quantitative techniques and sample surveys (household surveys, in particular) as privileged tools for the collection of policy-relevant information. This paper contends that survey techniques have particular limitations as research tools in an environment where local level case studies are scarce and where a host of new socio-economic processes are creating fundamental shifts in the landscape of social provision, redistribution and employment. These limitations are illustrated by drawing upon a household survey conducted by the author in four villages from two regions in Uzbekistan, Andijan and Kashkadarya, between October 1997 and August 1998. The ambiguities surrounding five basic concepts, those of household, employment, access to land, income and expenditure are discussed in detail, as are the changes in their contents and meanings in the context of transition. The gender differentiated outcomes of current changes and their possible implications are highlighted throughout the text. The conclusion suggests that Uzbekistan finds itself at an uneasy juncture where the policies deployed to ‘cushion’ the social costs of transition may reach the limits of their sustainability. A more contextually sensitive approach to the mechanisms that generate new forms of vulnerability and the use of qualitative and longitudinal methodologies are essential to an adequate monitoring of further changes.     

Regionalism, Regional Structures and Security Management in Central Asia

The security dimension of regionalism and regional structures in Central Asia and Azerbaijan has been limited by Russia's influence as a regional hegemon, aswell as by various other constraints specific to the region and the local states. Moreover, as a peripheral zone in the world system, Central Eurasia has not shown much evidence of regionalization as a process. But in response to the proximity of hegemonic power the smaller states have tried to adopt bandwagoning and balancing strategies in regional formats. Although their fixation on 'regime security' has encouraged them to accommodate Russia through CIS structures, this is changing as new bilateral security relationships develop with the United States. The Russian-sponsored Collective Security Treaty Organization is unable to address the most serious challenges for regional security management in Central Asia. Yet the local states have been unable on their own to establish a regional security consensus and to institutionalize cooperation on that basis. The diffuse GUUAM grouping (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova) has not offered a basis for selfsustaining regional security cooperation. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has created a venue to engage China in the security dialogue on Central Asia, particularly over counterterrorism, but has otherwise failed to tackle security challenges among and within the Central Asian states. Overall, the current focus of these states and their sponsors on bilateral relations to provide security assistance continues to displace security-related regionalism.     

Economic Resources and Political Power at the Local Level in Post-Soviet Russia

In the 1990s in local government in Russia, the dominant trends might be described as neo-Soviet because of their apparent continuity with patterns that prevailed before the end of communist rule in that country. The promise of independence for "local self-government," as set forth in the Russian Constitution of 1993 and subsequent legislation, largely has been frustrated. The tendency of privatized economic enterprises to divest themselves of responsibility for social benefits, and the lack of an adequate base for financial independence for local governments, have made it necessary for local officials to rely heavily on the regional authorities for support. Within local government, the elected legislature usually is subordinate to a dominant executive leadership. Those features of contemporary local government in Russia are explained by the consequences of decisions adopted by the country's post-Communist leadership, including the method and content of economic reform. The results are unfavorable both for the resurgence of the local economy and the growth of democracy at the local level.     

Han China in Central Asia

A.F.P. Hulsewé. China in Central Asia, the Early Stage: 125 B.C.-A.D. 23. An annotated translation of Chapters 61 and 96 of the History of the Former Han Dynasty, with an Introduction by M.A.N. Loewe. Leiden: E.J. Brill, 1979, Pp. viii, 273, map. (70 guilders)     

Regionalism, Iran and Central Asia

A combination of revolutionary ideology, trouble with neighbours and location in the Middle East, where regionalism is moribund, make the Islamic Republic of Iran an unlikely enthusiast for regional coalition-building. The impetus towards regionalism derives first and foremost from geopolitical considerations–the need to counter the US government's efforts to isolate Iran–but also from domestic dynamics; the regionalist discourse has lent an acceptable ideological colouring to an increasingly pragmatic foreign policy.
Iran's neighbours, however, share neither its geopolitical predicament nor its ideological complexion, and the actual implementation of Tehran's regionalist agenda has been based on functional cooperation, rather than on geopolitics and ideology. Trade promotion and the development of transport infrastructure to link Central Asia and the Caspian to Turkey and the Persian Gulf have been the most appealing areas for northern neighbours, and dominate the agenda of the Economic Cooperation Organization, Iran's main vehicle for multilateral cooperaton with Central Asia and Azerbaijan. Tehran's 1992 proposal for a Caspian Sea Cooperation Organization has so far been stymied by the littoral states' well-publicized disagreements over the sea's legal status, though their numerous multilateral meetings and handful of agreements suggest that the idea has potential in the medium–term.
Notwithstanding the meagre tangible results to date, Iran's tilt towards regionalism has had a positive impact. It has helped to rehabilitate the Islamic Republic in the eyes of its neighbours, contributed to the evolution of policy debate at home and prepared the ground for future multilateral cooperation.     

东南亚的非传统安全问题

后冷战时期,东南亚地区面临着非常严峻的恐怖主义、海盗、毒品生产与贩运等非传统安全问题的困扰。尽管表现形式各异,但是东南亚地区各类非传统安全问题的形成与贫困都有着密不可分的关系。各类非传统安全问题无论对东南亚各国的经济发展和社会稳定,还是对东南亚国家之间的关系以及东南亚国家与区域外部大国的关系都产生了重大影响。为了有效应对非传统安全问题的挑战,东南亚国家在调整自己的安全观念的同时,还从不同层面出发采取了很多切实有效的举措．     

The United States and Regionalism in Central Asia

This article examines the record of American policy towards regional cooperation in Central Asia. It begins with the determinants of regionalism and the role of external states therein. It then considers the nature of American interests in Central Asia. This is followed by a historical account of the three stages of American policy towards the region. The article argues that regional cooperation has not been a significant aspect of US policy. Instead US policy-makers have preferred bilateral relations or multilateral structures (e.g. the Partnership for Peace, the GUUAM [Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova] group) which draw the region's states beyond its boundaries. US policy tends to reduce incentives for regional actors to develop multilateral cooperation. It may also encourage competitive regionalist agendas on the part of other interested major powers (Russia and China).     

中亚国家的民族关系与地区安全

随着地缘政治的变化,中亚五国的民族问题凸显跨国性。民族与宗教因素相结合、相促发,利用宗教服务于极端民族主义是影响民族关系、制约国家经济建设和危及地区安全的突出征象。“9.11”事件以后,由于美国的军事介入,致使中亚的民族问题更加复杂,不仅关涉五国间的国家关系,而且牵动包括我国西北边疆及其他周边国家在内的地区安全。面临来自周边动荡带的巨大压力,中亚的稳定仍然十分脆弱,强化国家安全的任务极其艰巨。中亚各国政府针对本国出现的一些具体问题,积极推行一系列促进族际关系健康发展的措施,民族问题始终处于政府的控制之下,整个地区总体上保持基本稳定态势,但局部片区的安全形势不容乐观,种种变数难以预测。     

Strategic Reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy

President Putin has presided over a proactive, hard-headed and relatively effective Russian policy in Central Asia and the Caspian region since at least the summer of 2002, which aims both to support Russia's revival as an economic and military power and to help tackle at source new security challenges from the volatile south. In line with rising domestic nationalist thinking and the growing influence of officials with a security service or military background, Moscow has been searching for a rationale to support a more assertive policy in the region. Meanwhile, Russian and American views on the scope and conduct of the war on terrorism have diverged in important respects. Russia lacks an overall regional strategy for Central Asia, but is seeking to mesh together geopolitical, security and energy policy goals. It is seeking to reinvigorate its military–security influence in Central Asia under the banner of counterterrorism and at the same time has achieved long-term agreements for energy transit and purchases that make Central Asian states increasingly dependent on Russia in energy policy. Overall, a dynamic of competition is displacing the potential for cooperation between Russia and western states, especially the United States, in Central Asia. The prospects for a fully-fledged strategic partnership in the region are fading but the reality of security threats from Afghanistan and within Central Asia might eventually reconcile Moscow to a lower profile but long-term western strategic presence in the region.     

Geography in the Republics of Central Asia

A review of the last 50 years of geographic research in the four Central Asian republics of Uzbekistan, Kirghizia, Tadzhikistan, and Turkmenia, where the dominant desert and mountain landscapes impose a specific character on geographic investigations. Physical geography has tended to focus on glaciation in mountains and on surface runoff in the desert as potential sources of water for irrigation. Economic geography has emphasized the utilization of desert pastures.     

Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registration system with estimates from other data sources. The results show that the recent changes to be real and not a result of data artifact. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the three other non-exclusive factors (population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect) that contributed jointly and simultaneously to push up the period fertility rates in the region.     

Changing security threat perceptions in Central Asia

This article discusses the current process of securitisation in Central Asia and identifies its convoluted and faulty nature as a factor impeding collective security action in the region. It uses the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) as an explanatory tool and posits that security discourse in — and about — the five former Soviet republics is dominated by geopolitical grand strategy on the one hand and by particularist concerns about lack of democracy or transnational threats on the other. Issues of conventional security involving two or more states, such as territorial disputes or resource management, are pushed aside and rarely securitised at the official level. The article outlines conceptual and institutional reasons for this bias, and argues that unless inter-state tensions are properly analysed, debated and addressed, the prospects for security and stability in the region will remain grim.     

Democratization, Legitimacy and Political Change in Central Asia

This article examines the concepts of democracy and legitimacy in the context of post-Soviet Central Asia. Its first argument is that democratization projects have lived through hard times in five Central Asian countries despite the failure of the institutional expression of democracy to incorporate the values and structures of these societies. The Soviet legacy of cynicism combined with local conservative political culture obstructs the emergence of democratic values and processes crucial for successful institutional development. If democracy does not provide a basis for political legitimacy, should the conclusion be that the ruling regimes are illegitimate? The article’s second argument is that the current sources of legitimacy stem from the fact that the regimes managed to cope with the initial challenges of post-communist transition with relative success and laid the foundation of the new states. Moreover, the populations do not see viable alternatives to the present order. However, there are new problems, such as mounting social tensions, regionalization and criminalization of politics. These challenges are largely a by-product of developments in the post-independence era. The continuing legitimacy of the regimes will depend on their ability to cope with these new, highly problematic issues.     

The Origins of the Apple in Central Asia

Journal of World Prehistory - The study of agricultural origins has been revolutionized by genomic science. Whole genome sequencing of plant domesticates opens a door to multiple new approaches by...     

论中亚的民族主义问题

本民族主义在中亚各国的表现进行了综合分析,特别对各国主体民族意识方面的表现进行了阐述。作认为,尽管中亚国家的民族自我中心主义对提升主体民族的凝聚力有帮助作用,然而却导致了非主体民族与主体民族的矛盾,甚至产生了危害国家安全的异己力量。中亚国家的民族主义思潮严重影响到中亚地区的社会稳定,对我国西北边疆地区的社会稳定也带来消极的影响。中亚国家已经认识到民族主义的危害,并采取了相应的对策,抵制民族主义的泛滥,携手共同打击民族分裂主义势力、宗教极端主义势力和国际恐怖主义势力等三股恶势力。