Demographic transition theory: a neglected aspect of the nomadism-sedentarism continuum

This paper proposes an adaptation of demographic transition theory to the nomadism-sedentarism continuum. It is argued that a change along this continuum implies a change in the mode of production, which in turn entails changes in fertility and mortality. The following hypotheses are set forth: 1) at the pastoral phase of a nomadic society, fertility is relatively low and mortality is relatively high, yielding a low rate of natural increase; 2) as a pastoral nomadic society senentarizes, fertility begins to rise and mortality falls, resulting in a sharp rise in natural increase, but as sedentarization becomes more advanced, both these trends slow down somewhat; 3) as the nomadic society becomes fully sedentarized, there is a period in which fertility remains at a high level but then begins to fall slowly, whereas mortality, after reaching a temporary minimum, exhibits a minor increase followed by a resumption of a declining trend; and 4) in the postsedentarization phase, the demographic regime of the ex-nomads becomes similar to the 2nd and 3rd stages of the original demographic transition theory, with a slowdown of the decline in mortality, followed by a later slowdown of fertility and of the rate of natural increase. The hypothesis of rising fertility among sedentarizing nomads is related to both social modernization and economic growth and development, including an improved standard of living and public health services. The interrelated processes of general societal responses to population growth and the changing role of children in the family are assumed to account for the eventual fertility decline. Data from several countries, including a case history from Israel, suggest that birth rates increase along the continuum but their decline at postsedentarization will depend on trends in the general rural sector. Natural increase rates of sedentarizing nomads are considerably higher than those of pastoral nomads. It is concluded that this approach may fill a gap in demographic transition theory and provide a conceptual framework for future studies.     

Offspring sex preference in frontier America

Analysis of the fertility histories of women born between 1850 and 1900, as given in the Utah Population Database (UPDB), reveals the effect of the number, as well as the sex composition, of previous children on birth-stopping and birth-spacing decisions. Specifically, agricultural and Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) households—two sub-populations that might have placed different values on male and female children for economic, social, and/or cultural reasons—showed a distinct preference for male children, as expressed by birth stopping after the birth of a male child and shorter birth intervals in higher-parity births when most previous children were female. Remarkably, women in both the early "natural fertility" and the later contraceptive eras used spacing behavior to achieve a desired sex mix. Although the LDS population had relatively high fertility rates, it had the same preferences for male children as the non-LDS population did. Farmers, who presumably had a need for family labor, were more interested in the quantity than in the sex mix of their children.     

Population studies

Contributions to the study of migration, fertility and mortality are discussed in this literature review article. Characteristics of migrants and the social and economic impact of migration are mentioned as well as temporal or spatial trends in fertility, research on the family and the household, secular changes in fertility patterns, and theoretical developments. Also covered are mortality variations and the relationships between fertility and mortality.     

News Notes

The settling of the Russians in Siberia is considered in the framework of three periods: (1) the 17th century, when the initial nucleus of the Russian population contingent was formed; (2) the 18th century and first half of the 19th, when in-migration declined and natural increase assumed a greater role in population growth; (3) the second half of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th, when Eastern Siberia's population grew at about the same rate as that of Russia as a whole, mainly through natural increase. Differences in natural increase, migration, economic activity and ethnic composition accounted for a wide diversification of the settling process within the region, and a number of distinctive settlement areas are described and mapped for the last two periods. Except for the initial intensive migration flow that gave rise to the nucleus of Russian population, Eastern Siberia's population growth before the 1917 Revolution derived mainly from natural increase, with migration playing a subordinate role.     

THE DEMOGRAPHIC WINDOW AND ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO IN THE HONG KONG SAR

Hong Kong, like other countries with developed economies, is experiencing significant population ageing. The shift in the population age structure results from a combination of decreasing mortality rates and prolonged low fertility rates. This paper investigates the economic impact of changes in a population's age structure. We forecast on sex-specific labour force participation rates (LFPRs) and the economic dependency ratio (EDR) using different scenarios. Our results show that the below-unity level for the EDR—prevalent since 1996—will exceed unity in 2015 and rise steeply thereafter. By 2036, the projected EDR will reach an unprecedented high of 1.4, where every three economically-inactive persons will be supported by two economically-active persons in Hong Kong. This projection not only reflects a significant age shift towards the older end of the age spectrum, but is also driven by declining LFPRs among men.     

FERTILITY CHANGES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1980

Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of communism affected more the transition to higher-order births. These results are however influenced by economic and demographic factors specific to each country. I investigate then the fertility upturn that is observed since the early 2000s—an issue neglected so far by demographers. Results from the analysis of official and household data show that in each country, the recent fertility increase resulted from the increase of distinct birth orders and was concentrated in specific ethnic groups.     

RECENT POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR

Pending the publication of new Soviet population data based on the 1979 census, to be hald next January, the author reviews population trends in the 1970's. After a steady decline through much of the Soviet period, birth rates and death rates have stabilized for the country as a whole, although marked regional differences continue. An unexplained rise in infant mortality and an apparent reduction of life expectancy have led to the suppression of data in these areas. No ready explanation is found for a recent increase in female fertility and age-specific death rates. Abnormalities in the age-sex structure, resulting from past population catastrophes, continue to persist and indicate future labor shortages. Geographical differences in population growth rates, resulting from differential rates of natural increase and migration, are analyzed. Urbanization, a typical phenomenon of the Soviet period, continues apace, with the biggest increases in large cities despite a policy designed to discourage big-city growth. A crucial question is the optimal disposition of the growing labor pool in the Central Asian region-whether to foster local employment or encourage migration from Central Asia to labor deficit areas elsewhere in the Soviet Union.     

Developments in Russian Gas Production Since 1998: Russia's Evolving Gas Supply Strategy

An American geographer and prominent authority on the oil and natural gas industries and resources of Russia and other former republics of the Soviet Union reports on overall trends in Russia's natural gas production in the years following the country's ruble devaluation and financial crisis. The account—based on systematic in-country observations, discussions/interviews with industry executives, and a review of industry sources—focuses on factors affecting domestic supply and demand as well as export capacity (will Russia have enough gas to meet rising domestic demand while fulfilling its export obligations?), regional patterns of production (and performance of Gazprom regional production enterprises), obstacles to the use of associated gas derived from crude oil extraction, and major pipeline construction projects in West Siberia and the Russian Far East. The paper concludes by outlining CERA's forecast for Russian gas production to 2020, also disaggregated by region. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 7 figures, 8 tables, 51 references.     

The futures of ethnic groups in the Russian Federation

The changes, sometimes dramatic, in the size and structure of the ethnic groups of the Russian Federation (RF) raise questions about their possible futures. The paper presents simulations of how ethnic groups of the RF could develop in the future and discusses the demographic aspects of the predicted changes. The simulations cover a 25-year period, from 1 January 2011 to 1 January 2036 and were prepared for the 22 most numerous ethnic groups using a multistate cohort-component population dynamics model. To prepare the assumptions for the simulations, ethnicity-specific data (no longer collected) on fertility, mortality, and international migration were used. The results indicate that in the coming 20 years Russia will face numerous challenges related to the changes in the size, age structure, and ethnic composition of its population. The population of the RF will age and, except in the “Modernization” scenario, will shrink. Non-Slavic and Muslim populations will increase their share in the total population at the expense of Slavic and Orthodox ethnic groups and will age more slowly.     

Small Area Population Estimation: Estimating Population Size at Ward Level 2014 in South Africa

The census is the traditional source of population figures at various levels. Census figures however are technically outdated immediately they are released because planners require figures for the present and possibly for future dates. In an attempt to meet this demand different organisations and researchers produce population estimates and projections. These estimates however are usually at higher geographical levels and often do not meet the planning needs of administrators at lower geographical levels. This study extends a top‐down estimation method to an African country by estimating the mid‐2014 population at ward level in South Africa. The study used the 2011 South Africa Census to estimate current levels of fertility, mortality as well as current trends in net migration at a higher geographical level. Historical trends in fertility and mortality were based on the 1996 Census, 1997 and 1998 October Household Surveys as well as the 2007 Community Survey data. The results indicate that that 20 of the largest wards as at mid‐2014 were located in South Africa's metropolitan areas. Nineteen of the 20 largest wards are currently growing at a rate of over 4% per annum and if this trend continues, eighteen of these wards will double their current population size in less than 15 years.     

Russia's economic agenda to 2020

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union the role of Russia in international relations has been in flux—a reflection of its changing capacities, positions and interests. To a certain extent, this variability has been defined by the Russian economy, which in the 1990s passed through a stage of deep structural transformation and severe financial crisis, but which then benefited from a period of fast and mainly stable economic growth in the first years of the twenty‐first century. Now, the serious economic decline as a result of the global crisis of 2008–2009 has been replaced by an unstable and uncertain recovery. In the 2000s a very specific political regime of personalized power under Vladimir Putin—set to be back as president in 2012—was established in Russia. During his next term Putin will face the most serious challenges to Russia's economic policy yet. According to some scenarios, these challenges could significantly destabilize the country's politics and economy. Russia is facing a demographic trap; the ageing of the population is increasing the pension burden on the budget, while the shrinking labour force will surely become an obstacle to growth. The dependence of the budget and balance of payments on the price of oil has grown so great that even price stabilization becomes a threat to macroeconomic stability. The poor quality of the investment climate leads to falling private investment which, in turn, hinders the much‐vaunted modernization of the economy. If combined, these problems will lead to the widening of the gap in technology and living standards between Russia and developed countries. Elimination of political competition and the impossibility of replacing political leaders through elections have led to widespread corruption and abuses, crony capitalism, and the complete undermining of the independence of the courts and law enforcement which further complicates the search for adequate responses to the mounting economic challenges. As there are no reasons to believe that Vladimir Putin is going to reform the country's current political system, the gradual accumulation of economic problems could well become the main threat to his presidency as Russia heads towards 2020.     

俄罗斯西伯利亚人口状况及其地理分析

西伯利亚人口问题一直非常尖锐,20世纪90年代以来更有不断恶化趋势。基于1989年和2002年俄罗斯人口普查资料,对西伯利亚人口状况及其动态变化进行了分析,得出了一些重要结论:1989-2002年间西伯利亚人口减少了95.9万,减少幅度达3.7%,远高于全俄1.5%的平均减幅;出生率降低、死亡率提高和人口大量迁移导致多数城市和区域人口持续减少,劳动力短缺问题日趋严重,制约了地区经济的发展;实现人口自然增长、调节人口迁移、引进合法移民乃西伯利亚人口和经济社会发展的当务之急。     

FORCED LABOUR AND RISING FERTILITY IN COLONIAL INDONESIA

This paper presents empirical evidence to support the labour demand theory of rising reproductive fertility in colonial Indonesia. According to this theory, birth rates in nineteenth-century Java rose as a direct result of the labour burden imposed upon women and their children by the Cultivation System of compulsory labour services. The theory was conceived in the 1970s as a reaction against the assumption that rapid population growth in colonial Indonesia must have reflected improvements in economic and health conditions under Dutch rule. The difficulty of testing the labour demand theory empirically, together with its counterintuitive quality and its ideological origins, led it to be sceptically received. However, newly-assembled statistical data from Minahasa—one of the few areas outside Java where compulsory cultivation services were introduced in the nineteenth century—suggest that the theory is in fact correct. The existence of a positive link between labour demand and fertility helps explain not only the paradox of population growth without rapid economic growth or public health improvements in nineteenth-century Java, but also the ‘involutionary’ cycle of agricultural intensification, population growth and impoverishment which seems to be a recurrent feature of Southeast Asian history.     

Eurasian Natural Gas: Significance and Recent Developments

A noted American specialist on the economies of Russia and major republics of the former Soviet Union explores and discusses the natural gas resources of Central Eurasia and the political and economic issues raised by their general inaccessibility. Central to these issues are the international pipelines required to bring this increasingly important energy source to meet growing world demand, and their intimate connection to the security of all the nations involved. The author explains why they are complicated by the growing, yet still largely potential, competition from a world LNG market driven by new technologies, and hence natural gas sources, outside of Central Eurasia. Each of the major actors in this arena—from the producer states and their national energy companies to the high-income consuming states with an increasing demand for natural gas—are pursuing frequently conflicting strategies to ensure their energy supplies and income security. Addressing the major developments thoroughly, the paper focuses in particular on the strategies of Russia/Gazprom, the Central Asian producers, and the transit states, as well as on the pipelines, both actual and potential, that intertwine them.     

A demographic analysis of the population growth of states, 1950-1980

Factors affecting regional differences in population growth in the United States are explored. "In this study, we estimated the contributions of births, deaths, and migration to changes in population size between 1950 and 1980 for the 48 contiguous states in the United States. We found that population momentum (i.e., the growth that would occur in a closed population if fertility and mortality rates remained constant) had the largest effect on population growth in most states, but that differences in net migration were the major cause of state-to-state differences in growth rates. We also found that net migration has been gaining in importance compared to natural increase as a component of population growth. We expect this trend to continue in coming decades." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 429).     

HOW WELL DID PAST UN POPULATION PROJECTIONS ANTICIPATE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN SIX SOUTH-EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES?

This paper analyses the accuracy of the United Nations’ population projections since the late 1950s for six South-east Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The study uses available projected and estimated age-structured data as well as published assumptions on fertility and mortality trends. A decomposition of the total projection errors into base errors (wrong estimates of demographic conditions at the beginning of projection interval) and change errors (wrong assumptions about the trends) shows that the base errors have generally been decreasing over time presumably as a consequence of improving demographic monitoring systems. The change errors, however, do not seem to decline over time. This seems to be due to a number of country-specific cultural and political factors whose effect was not anticipated as well as to a lack of good theories with predictive power. These findings suggest the need to give more explicit attention to the treatment of uncertainty in future population projections.     

Application of Quantitative Methods of Settlement Analysis to a Lower-Level (Intra—Oblast) Economic Regionalization

Two quantitative techniques—the mean center of population of the old centrography school, and the potential of population—are applied to settlement analysis in Eastern Siberia for purposes of lower economic regionalization. The migrations of the mean center of population of Yakut ASSR and Irkutsk Oblast are interpreted in terms of regional development trends from the 1920s to the 1960s. Analyses of the potential of population for different dates suggest the formation of areal production nodes that can be used in delimiting lower economic regions. The boundaries between such lower-order regions tend to pass through undeveloped and sparsely settled areas that show up as low values on maps of the potential of population.     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.     

HOW FAST IS THE POPULATION AGEING IN CHINA?

Using adjusted 2000 population census data, this paper conducts projections of China's population up to 2050. Three fertility and four mortality scenarios yield 12 sets of results. Even though fertility is below replacement, China's population will continue growing for many years. One of the notable trends is the rapid ageing of the population. By the end of 2050, one-fifth to one-third of China's population will be aged 65 and over. The demographic dividend is expected to continue in next 10 to 20 years depending on future fertility which, in turn, is determined by changes in China's one-child policy. The Chinese government should be aware of all possible situations of population change, and particularly population ageing in the first half of the century, and be well prepared for all possible challenges that may arise.     

Trends and Implications of Delayed and Non-Marriage in Korea

Korea has experienced marital transition since the 1920s, but recent data reveal rapid changes in marital behaviour and norms. Analysts usually relate these to the second fertility transition, fast growing gender equality, economic developments, and ideational changes, pointing to the necessity of understanding the process of change in marital behaviour in the context of societal transformation as well as demographic transition. With this background in mind, this paper constructs refined measures, such as age-specific first marriage rates and total first marriage rates, for different time periods and for different cohorts to present a clearer picture of marriage trends. The results are then examined in relation to various social and demographic factors, a procedure which provides an indirect check on the validity and usefulness of the method.