The Philippines insurrection and the 1902–4 cholera epidemic: Part II—Diffusion patterns in war and peace

The great epidemic of cholera which swept through the Philippine Islands in the immediate aftermath of the Philippine–American War (1899–1902) spread in two temporally distinct, but spatially concordant, waves of infection. Part I of this paper studied the first wave (wave I, March 1902 to February 1903). Here, in Part II, we explore the manner in which the second wave (wave II, May 1903 to February 1904) diffused through the same geographical areas. Using the cholera reports prepared by the Chief Quarantine Officer for the Philippine Islands and published weekly in the contemporary USPublic Health Reports, the diffusion of wave II is analysed at the geographical levels of province, island and nation. Comparison with wave I confirms that spatially contagious spread dominated in both waves at all spatial scales. However, it is shown that there were important differences between the waves in their intensity, speed of spread and resulting spatial patterns. Amelioration of the disruption brought about by the Philippine–American War may account for some of the observed differences between the two waves.     

分析SARS:在我国的地理扩散和地理障碍

SARS疫情在我国的迅速传播已经对我国的社会和经济生活造成了重大的影响,也为我们观察和分析地理扩散提供了难得的机会。SARS的扩散显然是一种地理过程,这个过程的第一个特征是以等级扩散为发展方式的,第二个特征是必然在扩散中遇到障碍。第一个特征的存在使疫情在一段时间里在我国得以迅速的蔓延,但是当采取各种医疗、隔离和防护措施后,SARS的扩散在出现障碍的条件下受到抑制。文章描述了疫情扩散的方式,在我国形成的地理格局(以广东和北京为源地),认为这个地理格局的形成与我国流动人口的分布、人口流动的条件有关。同时指出,在疫情扩散的地理格局中,在中心城市形成的高度集中是一种令人担忧的现象。因为这样的集中已经对这些中心城市的包括"医疗中心"在内的行政、经济、交通等核心地的功能产生严重影响。为此,文章注意到我国一些没有发现疫情的地区的地理条件,认为存在着如地理距离(距离衰减)、地理环境、产业特征等地理障碍。通过对这些障碍的分析,文章最后提出了防治疫情及其继续扩散的措施。     

The spatial anatomy of an epidemic: influenza in London and the county boroughs of England and Wales, 1918–1919

From uncertain origins in the spring of 1918, an apparently new variant of influenza A virus spread around the world as three distinct diffusion waves, infecting half a billion and probably killing around 40 million people. This paper examines the spatial structure of influenza transmission during the ten–month course of the epidemic in England and Wales, June 1918–April 1919, using the weekly counts of influenza deaths in London and the county boroughs as collated by the General Register Office, London. In addition, a particular case study of the borough of Cambridge is presented. From mid–1916, Cambridge contained, as well as its undergraduate population, a large naval contingent billeted in both the colleges and the town. It therefore affords the opportunity of studying the effect of the epidemic in contiguous groups with widely differing demographic characteristics. Through the application of a range of statistical methods (average lags, correlations and regressions), it is shown that the three waves that comprised the pandemic had fundamentally different spatial and temporal characteristics. The first, moving through a population that was a virgin soil to the new virus strain, was explosive in its north to south progress across the country. The second wave was somewhat slower in its rate of diffusion and displayed a south to north drift. Finally, the third wave reverted more closely to the form of the first. The spread of all three waves, however, was underpinned by a clearly defined process of spatial contagion. The Cambridge study showed the special characteristics of this pandemic in terms of the ages of those attacked: high rates were experienced across the age spectrum, a feature also seen internationally.     

1820年赣南周边霍乱重疫区的形成与变迁

在清代嘉道之际的中国首次霍乱大流行中,不利于霍乱蔓延的赣南及其周边山区却形成重疫区,但受资料搜集不全的限制,以往学界并未注意到此问题。藉由对1820年赣南霍乱重疫区形成原因的揭示及此后疫区变迁的梳理,可以显见商贸重心转移对霍乱传播的巨大影响。在商贸至盛之时,频繁的贸易交往等人文因素会逾越地形等自然因素的障碍,将霍乱强势蔓延开来。     

Spatial-Temporal Spread of the AIDS Epidemic, 1982–1990: A Correlogram Analysis of Four Regions of the United States

We applied correlogram analysis to county-level AIDS data of four regions—the Northeast (Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania), California, Florida, and Louisiana—for the period 1982–1990 to characterize the spatial-temporal spread of the AIDS epidemic. Correlograms computed from yearly incidence rates differ substantially among these four regions, revealing regional differences in the spatial patterns and intensity of AIDS spread. A general trend of increasing spread to rural America, however, can still be detected. Contagious spread was predominant in the Northeast throughout the nine-year period, whereas California was dominated by hierarchical spread through time. The spatial-temporal changes of AIDS incidence patterns were most drastic in Florida, where the correlograms show hierarchical spread in the early years and then contagious spread in the later years. As a representative region for most other states in the United States, Louisiana has low spatial autocorrelation and no definite spatial pattern of spread. Grouping data into three-year periods for states with low yearly incidence rates such as Louisiana should help identify the dominant trends for these states. The correlogram results could provide useful insights into the specification of spatial models for AIDS forecasting.     

从1902年霍乱传播模式看清末北方社会

在晚清行将告罄的1902年,霍乱作为一个历史进程的指标,敏感地反映了开埠通商前后中国北方社会环境的剧烈变化:疫区的盈缩反映出区域商贸交往体系的成型及港口的兴衰;城乡传播模式的沿海环绕及内陆、沿海轻重疫区的清晰分层则暗示出其时区域人口交往密度的沿海大倾斜。而现代交通工具的介入,则从速度上悄然影响着霍乱的传播区域。     

Modified innovation diffusion — A way to explain the diffusion of cholera in Linköping in 1866? A study in methods

This article seeks to simulate diffusions of cholera from different water sources in the town of Linköping in 1866. The innovation diffusion theory, developed by Hägerstrand, has been used and modified. The article also investigates if it is possible to ascertain which water sources were contaminated during the cholera epidemic of 1866. The modifications of the theory of innovation diffusion resulted in a simulation model, which took into consideration the distribution of the population and barriers. The model corresponded with reality both in graphic and cartographic comparisons. With the help of the model, three water sources were identified as having been the probable cholera spreaders.     

1932年陕西省的霍乱疫情及其社会应对

1932年的霍乱遍及全国,尤以陕西省最为严重。本文主要依据当时的报刊资料对此次霍乱在陕西省的发生、流行以及社会各界的应对进行分析,认为此次陕西省的霍乱疫情蔓延60个县,死亡人数13万以上;呈现出初期远程传播与近程传播同时进行,后期主要以沿交通干线的远程传播为主的特征;至于霍乱疫情的发生有外地传来和本地引发两种可能;社会各界因社会地位、职责等的不同,在应对霍乱的过程中所担当的角色和采取的措施也就各异。     

霍乱与商业社会中的人口死亡——以1919年的黄县为例

1919年的霍乱造成黄县各村落普遍感染和4%的人口死亡率,黄县霍乱的严重流行虽然与天气和县内各地不同的土壤条件有关,但最主要的因素是该县发达的商业。黄县的地理位置和地貌特点使其北部和中部地区形成不同等级的城市和市镇体系,这种城镇分布特点部分决定了1919年的霍乱传播模式和人口死亡程度,形成除龙口和城关镇以外的各乡镇霍乱死亡率有规则的高低错落分布的特点。在交通不便的南部山区,因该地业已卷入到市场体系当中,故该区亦成为此次霍乱流行的重灾区。总之,以农业为主的县与以商业为主的县在霍乱传播模式上有很大的不同。     

The changing shape of island epidemics: historical trends in Icelandic infectious disease waves, 1902–1988

Iceland's centuries-long history of epidemics with its unusually complete disease records has attracted study from several disciplines. But detailed spatial data of particular interest to historical geographers date only from 1895 and were consistently maintained for about a century thereafter. Within this period, this paper concentrates on morbidity records of reported cases of infectious diseases for an 87-year window which was open between 1902 and 1988. In this time slice, spatially detailed data for seven demographically important infectious diseases allow the geography of 131 discrete epidemic waves with a recorded total of 529,000 cases to be tracked. Changes in the behaviour of the seven diseases over the period are analyzed and related to both epidemiological theory and to the changing historical geography of the island. The paper complements earlier Icelandic work by the authors on the historical geography of single diseases (measles, influenza and poliomyelitis) by extending the range of diseases, and by considering their common spatial behaviour and their interrelationships.     

Does Policy Diffusion Need Space? Spatializing the Dynamics of Policy Diffusion

For decades, scholars in multiple disciplines have examined spatial diffusion, or the spatiotemporal properties associated with the diffusion of innovations. These properties include contagious, hierarchical, and relocation diffusion. Each of these refers to a spatial model that epitomizes how innovations spread among geographic locations. Policy diffusion, a separate but homologous research tradition, had its theoretical underpinnings in spatial diffusion. However, contemporary policy diffusion has focused largely on mechanism‐based diffusion. This article demonstrates how exploratory spatial data analysis can be used to uncover spatial policy diffusion properties. In this study, municipal smoking regulation adoptions, religious‐based initiatives, and bag ban and bag fees are examined. This study finds evidence that for each policy more than one property is occurring; therefore, this study proposes that a hybrid model best explains diffusion. This article demonstrates how examining spatial diffusion properties, in addition to diffusion mechanisms, can improve the conceptualization of diffusion theories, enhance mechanism or theory‐based specification of diffusion models, and unravel the specific regional or neighboring causal pathways linking policies between adopting jurisdictions.     

天主教在广西沿北部湾地区传播、扩散过程中的海岛效应和点轴模式

本文以天主教在广西沿北部湾地区的传播、扩散为例,试图揭示其传播、扩散的地理学规律。研究表明,天主教在环北部湾地区的传播分布基本上符合清末年间传教士先从沿海港口登陆,渐次沿交通干道向内陆地区扩散的点轴扩散模式。需要强调的是,涠洲岛以其地理上的闭合性特征在天主教进入广西初期扮演了弹跳板和插转台的角色,进而直接影响到广西沿北部湾地区天主教分布格局的形成。     

The Spatial Dynamics of Poliomyelitis in the United States: From Epidemic Emergence to Vaccine-Induced Retreat, 1910-1971

This article seeks to advance an understanding of the spatial dynamics of one of the great emergent viral diseases of the twentieth century-poliomyelitis. From an apparently rare clinical condition occurring only sporadically or in small outbreaks before the late nineteenth century, poliomyelitis had, by the early 1950s, developed into a globally distributed epidemic disease. But, from 1955, continued growth was suddenly and dramatically reversed by the mass administration of inactivated (killed) and live (attenuated) poliovirus vaccines. After almost half a century of vaccine control, the world now stands on the brink of the global eradication of the disease. Against this background, the article draws upon information included in the U.S. Public Health Service's Public Health Reports and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report to examine the spatial dynamics of poliomyelitis during the phases of epidemic emergence (1910-1955) and vaccine-induced retreat (1955-1971) in the United States. It is shown that epidemic emergence was accompanied by shifts in the spatial center of activity from early diffusion poles in the northeastern states, to the western seaboard, and then finally to cover all the states of the Union. This was accompanied by accelerating epidemic propagation. The introduction of mass vaccination from the mid-1950s realigned spatial transmission of the disease, producing increased spatial volatility in the geographical center of activity and heightened dependence of epidemic outbreaks upon endemic reservoirs in the most populous states. Finally, the empirical results are generalized to suggest that the emergence and reemergence of many infectious diseases is a distinctively geographical process.     

Reconstruction of diffusion processes at local scales: the 1846, 1882 and 1904 measles epidemics in northwest Iceland

Because medical records of individuals contracting measles were not kept in northwest lceland for epidemics before 1904, the spread of the disease in 1846 and 1882 has been traced from notifications of death recorded in burial registers and census returns. Using this evidence, a time-space matrix of measles deaths has been constructed and the dynamics of the diffusion process through a necklace of small communities strung along the coast has been analysed. In each of the three epidemics the mortality curve corresponded closely to an S-shaped logistic model, each new epidemic passing through the area more rapidly than its predecessor. The operation of a neighbourhood effect from a single point of introduction implies that the disease should move in a wave-like form through the area. Whereas the 1882 epidemic advanced steadily as a wave-front progression characteristic of the neighbourhood effect, those of 1846 and 1904 had strong spatial biases towards the parish of Eyri. The intense localization of the outbreaks in 1846 and 1904 appears not to be related directly to distinctive features in the demography or form of the settlement. In 1904 a confirmation service held in Eyri church brought many victims into contact with a measles carrier, but no special circumstances have been reported or can be deduced for 1846.     

Reconstruction of diffusion at local scales: the 1846, 1882 and 1904 measles epidemics in northwest Iceland.

Because medical records of individuals contracting measles were not kept in northwest lceland for epidemics before 1904, the spread of the disease in 1846 and 1882 has been traced from notifications of death recorded in burial registers and census returns. Using this evidence, a time-space matrix of measles deaths has been constructed and the dynamics of the diffusion process through a necklace of small communities strung along the coast has been analysed. In each of the three epidemics the mortality curve corresponded closely to an S-shaped logistic model, each new epidemic passing through the area more rapidly than its predecessor. The operation of a neighbourhood effect from a single point of introduction implies that the disease should move in a wave-like form through the area. Whereas the 1882 epidemic advanced steadily as a wave-front progression characteristic of the neighbourhood effect, those of 1846 and 1904 had strong spatial biases towards the parish of Eyri. The intense localization of the outbreaks in 1846 and 1904 appears not to be related directly to distinctive features in the demography or form of the settlement. In 1904 a confirmation service held in Eyri church brought many victims into contact with a measles carrier, but no special circumstances have been reported or can be deduced for 1846.     

Somebody Else, Somewhere Else: Racisms, Racialized Spaces and the Popular Geographical Imagination in Sweden

In conjunction with recurrent economic dislocations and the restructuring and melting of national capitalisms into one another, there has been a resurgence of racisms in Europe; even in Sweden, a country long stereotyped as an international champion of equality and economic and political justice. An array of concrete and racialized spaces has emerged and contributed to the further spread of racism. Deeply enmeshed in this process is a disjuncture between racist attitudes and behaviors, and a widely held image of the self and the nation as altruistic and just. Confronted by such internal dissonance, many, if not most, Swedes resolve matters through denial and projection: believing or asserting that the country's only racists are either skinhead youths or right-wing extremists, "somebody else." The contradiction between the racisms and national identity is also commonly culturally reworked through projecting upon other locations as well as other groups. To demonstrate the complexities and internal contradictions of this popular geographical imagination, this paper provides a detailed depiction and critique of one of its elements—the municipality of Sjöbo.     

战后日本侨俘遣返中的卫生防疫——以1946年广东遣送船霍乱疫情为中心

1946年4月,由广东出发的多艘日本侨俘遣送船在遣返途中发生霍乱疫情。日本当局将霍乱船只集中于浦贺港,并建立了以“浦贺归国援助局”为核心的防疫指挥机构,开展了全面的卫生防疫工作。防疫措施主要包括检疫消毒、隔离诊疗以及向遣送船供给物资等。虽然受各种条件的限制,防疫措施在具体的实施过程中遇到了重重阻碍,但最终成功防止疫情向日本国内蔓延,取得了一定成效。但是,霍乱疫情依然对浦贺、东京乃至关东地区的经济、社会产生了诸多负面影响。     

Womyn's separatist spaces: rethinking spaces of difference and exclusion

This paper rethinks geographical explorations of social difference by interrogating ameliorative and pleasurable aspects of marginal spaces. Re-introducing womyn's separatist spaces contests feminist geographical writing in this area, requiring an examination of both the alternative ways of living that are created, and the pain of producing 'womyn-only' spaces in order for such spaces to exist. The paper draws on qualitative research with 238 attendees at the 31st Michigan Womyn's Music Festival. Womyn spoke of the pleasures of the festival and positive affinities with other womyn, as well as the festival's herstory of conflict, negotiation and compromise. Although accounts relay 'growing pains' that constitute the festival's current form, the current temporal and spatial segregations of 'womyn', through the womyn-born womyn policy, has resulted in something of an impasse. Rather than reductively posing 'the latest problem' of feminist separatism as the exclusion of trans women because of this policy, or unequivocally celebrating the festival's role in womyn's lives and herstory, these polarised conceptualisations are held in tension. This enables a consideration of the paradoxes and juxtaposition of womyn's space and Camp Trans (a protest camp that opposes the womyn-born womyn policy) as productive. In this way, the paper argues for an engagement with marginalised and alternative spaces of difference that allow for positive affectivities and productive tensions that do not neglect relations of power.     

Roads and the diffusion of insurgent violence: The logistics of conflict in Russia's North Caucasus

How does insurgency spread? Existing research on the diffusion of violence at the local level of civil war tends to under-specify the theoretical mechanisms by which conflict can be expanded, relocated or sustained, and overlooks the real-world logistical constraints that combatants face on a daily basis. This paper attempts to address both problems by taking a closer look at the role of road networks in the diffusion of insurgent activity. By explicating the logic of diffusion in a simple epidemic model and exploiting new disaggregated data on violence and road networks in the North Caucasus, this analysis challenges the conventional view that insurgent logistics are either self-sufficient or highly flexible. Roads shape the costs of sustaining and expanding operations, which facilitates the transmission of violence to new locations, but can also intensify competition for limited military resources between nearby battlefronts. At the local level, this dynamic makes the relocation of insurgent activity more likely than its expansion. Methodologically, this paper demonstrates that a failure to account for logistical constraints in the empirical study of civil war can underestimate costs of diffusion and overpredict the transmissibility of violence between neighboring locations. The use of road network distances can yield more conservative inferences and more accurate predictions of how violence spreads.