The spatial anatomy of an epidemic: influenza in London and the county boroughs of England and Wales, 1918–1919

From uncertain origins in the spring of 1918, an apparently new variant of influenza A virus spread around the world as three distinct diffusion waves, infecting half a billion and probably killing around 40 million people. This paper examines the spatial structure of influenza transmission during the ten–month course of the epidemic in England and Wales, June 1918–April 1919, using the weekly counts of influenza deaths in London and the county boroughs as collated by the General Register Office, London. In addition, a particular case study of the borough of Cambridge is presented. From mid–1916, Cambridge contained, as well as its undergraduate population, a large naval contingent billeted in both the colleges and the town. It therefore affords the opportunity of studying the effect of the epidemic in contiguous groups with widely differing demographic characteristics. Through the application of a range of statistical methods (average lags, correlations and regressions), it is shown that the three waves that comprised the pandemic had fundamentally different spatial and temporal characteristics. The first, moving through a population that was a virgin soil to the new virus strain, was explosive in its north to south progress across the country. The second wave was somewhat slower in its rate of diffusion and displayed a south to north drift. Finally, the third wave reverted more closely to the form of the first. The spread of all three waves, however, was underpinned by a clearly defined process of spatial contagion. The Cambridge study showed the special characteristics of this pandemic in terms of the ages of those attacked: high rates were experienced across the age spectrum, a feature also seen internationally.     

The Spatial Dynamics of Epidemic Diseases in War and Peace: Cuba and the Insurrection against Spain, 1895–98

This paper examines the spatial transmission and rate of propagation of three infectious diseases (enteric fever, smallpox and yellow fever) in times of war and peace in Cuba between 1895 and 1898. For the three diseases studied, the analysis will demonstrate that, compared with peacetime, the Cuban Insurrection caused increased epidemiological integration of the settlement system of Cuba, acceleration of the spatial processes of disease transmission and a marked change in the geographical drift of infectious disease activity. While the first two findings may be attributed to the heightened levels of population mixing that accompanied the insurrection, the third implies that hostilities fundamentally altered the spatial courses of diseases. These changes transcended stark biases in the predisposition to infection among Spanish soldiers (to yellow fever) and Cuban civilians (to smallpox). Finally, it is shown that the military were the prime agents causing contrasts in the epidemiological experience of Cuba between war and peace.     

The combined use of oxygen isotopes and microwear in sheep teeth to elucidate seasonal management of domestic herds: the case study of Çatalhöyük,central Anatolia

This paper presents and tests a model designed to investigate how off-site herd management developed in settled pre-historic societies. The model is constructed from data collected from traditionally raised local sheep, acting as an interpretive link to published data. The modern comparator was small, but plausible results allow modelling of the archaeological data to be explored. Birth seasonality and herding location are identified through modelled patterns in oxygen isotope data in tooth enamel, and diet just before death by microwear in the same tooth. In combination, these allow aspects of seasonal management of breeding, fallow and slaughter herd sections to be interpreted. Novel practices are discussed in comparison local wild sheep ethology. The case study is Neolithic Çatalhöyük (7400–6200 cal BC) in central Anatolia. Its location provided the opportunity for different parts of the landscape to be used for herding, although choice might have been socially constrained. Data are taken from 72 specimens; the results suggest settlement-wide preference for a suite of practices that kept herds within a day of the settlement and that maintained breeding cycle synchrony with optimal resource availability. Chronological analysis suggests birth season manipulation was tried but rejected, whilst hay or cereal fodder was introduced and became increasingly important. It is argued that herding was probably on dedicated pasture on the arable fringes rather than in closer integration on ‘garden plots’, as there is no evidence of field-edge weed diets and little evidence of adjusting the birth season to accommodate the crop cycle.