SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF POPULATION DEVELOPMENT IN A DECLINING REGION: THE CASE OF SAARLAND

We increasingly understand the causes of population decline: these can be, among others, processes of deindustrialization, decreasing fertility or the succession of a city through the stages of urban life as the city matures. However, we are still insufficiently able to explain why differences still exist between cities within regions experiencing the same macro‐processes and between cities of the same “level of maturity”. This research addresses this intra‐regional differentiation in population development in the declining former mining region of Saarland (Germany). Quantitative and qualitative analysis reveals that the differentiation in current decline stems from (1) the differentiated population development trajectories of the past, with a massive population boom followed by an aged and declining population in the industrial municipalities; and (2) the spatial distribution of amenities over the region; and (3) the spatial distribution and accessibility of housing opportunities steering migration flows. The latter are not necessarily concentrated in those areas that are attractive. Rather, the distribution of these housing opportunities strictly follows the planning logic of the supra‐local institutional framework, with a concentration of housing within easy access of major transportation infrastructure and in larger centres. The case study thus reveals that the mechanisms behind this intraregional differentiation are much more complex than often portrayed in the urban development and decline debate.     

城市发展指数指引下的我国收缩区域初步评判

城市收缩在全球范围内蔓延，致使以增长为假设前提的区域经济增长模型受到极大挑战。本文以县域单元为研究对象，利用2000年与2010年各县域单元的社会经济数据构建城市发展指数，在其指引下对我国城市收缩状况做初步分析。研究表明：①在城市化的快速进程中，我国县域单元出现收缩现象，特别是县、自治县、自治旗、旗出现较多数量的收缩。②发生收缩的县域单元共261个，大多数为人口较少的中小城镇；西部地区分布较多，且收缩面积较大。③收缩的县级行政区表现出一些共性特征：人口数量和密度下降、老龄化加深、医疗卫生条件较差、经济发展缓慢，财政赤字严重。这一结果有助于初步了解我国收缩区域整体格局，并呼吁研究者和政策制定者尽快针对这一问题展开研究，促进区域可持续发展。     

新型城镇化下中部流出地村庄的人口转型特征与微观成因——以湖南岳阳市为例

新型城镇化驱动下,乡村人口转型呈现就近非农化不断增强等新特征。本文以岳阳市为例,首先揭示人口转型的总体格局,选定城关型、偏远山区型、传统农业型三个典型村庄,全面透视其外出、常住人口的转型特征,揭示自然本底、地域经济、社会服务的影响。发现：中部地区人口以流向省外为主,但回流增强,主要流向镇街;城关型村庄人口以就近（地）非农化为主;偏远山区村庄异地城镇化为主、就近非农化为辅;传统农业村庄人口外流、就近城镇化与非农化并存;村庄资源禀赋及利用程度、地域经济水平、生活服务配套等对人口外出程度和距离、择居（业）、年龄和家庭结构、村庄兴衰有不同影响,城镇化应因况施策。     

Understanding Spatial Differentiation in Urban Decline Levels

The economic and demographic changes currently manifest in many Western cities—referred to as urban decline or urban shrinkage—are receiving increased attention in public and academic debates. Although the general processes driving these changes have been identified, such processes cannot explain why regions and cities which have been exposed to similar processes still differ in their economic and demographic developments. This Western European and US-based literature review attempts to answer the question of how this interregional and intraregional variation in levels of economic and demographic decline can be understood. It is argued that the degree to which wider societal forces (such as deindustrialization, changes in international and domestic migration and changing fertility levels) impact on a particular area depends on how these forces are filtered, first, through the institutional and, second, the spatial context that the region or city is located in. To understand the differences between the cities within one region (being part of the same institutional and spatial contexts), we need to descend to the city level and take account of the local (dis)amenities, comprising its physical, social and economic assets, and the influence of (the place characteristics of) other cities in the vicinity and the socio-political framework.     

Tackling human capital loss in shrinking cities: urban development and secondary school improvement in Eastern Germany

Selective migration, and the loss of highly qualified employees that it implies, is frequently mentioned as a major problem related to urban shrinkage [Fol, S. (2012). Urban shrinkage and socio-spatial disparities: Are the remedies worse than the disease? Built Environment, 38(2), 259–275.] However, despite the fact that research conducted on the issue of shrinking cities has increased, urban development strategies targeting human capital loss are rarely discussed in the literature on urban decline. This paper addresses this research gap. It focuses on the investment in secondary school infrastructure in Eastern Germany and presents the findings of an empirical study that observed how the issue of secondary education improvement was integrated into the urban development strategies of shrinking cities. Two case studies will be discussed in order to highlight initiatives for educational advancement, which directly targeted the problem of human capital loss. On the basis of this ‘reality check', the paper argues that an investment in secondary education is part of a potentially rewarding strategy in dealing with urban shrinkage that may be linked to the concept of social innovation.     

Medium-sized cities in urban regions

A research project of the German Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning focussed on the role and the perspectives of medium-sized cities in urban regions. Quantitative and qualitative research approaches were combined. The main results concretize the development, the functions and the perspectives of medium-sized cities. Simultaneously, the role of medium-sized cities was investigated in the regional context, considering that in urban regions the hierarchy of large, medium-sized and small cities is overlapped by network structures.     

CITIES AND DEVELOPMENT

ABSTRACT This paper starts with a “primer” on what we know about the conceptual and empirical links between development and urbanization. While historical experience of developed countries is reviewed, today's rapid urbanization in developing countries offers an intense set of challenges. Rapid urbanization requires massive population movements and enormous local and inter‐city infrastructure investments in a modern context of heavy government interventions in economies. This context raises under‐researched issues, discussed in the second part of the paper. First concerns the spatial form of development. How much development should be focused in mega‐cities, or huge urban clusters, as opposed to being more spatially dispersed, a critical question facing China and India today? How do we conceptualize and measure both the benefits and costs of increased urban concentration; and how are they linked to a country's evolving national industrial composition? Second, what is the evolution of spatial income inequality under massive rural‐urban migration? Is inequality heightened today relative to the past by national government policies which “favor” certain cities and regions and by local government policies in those cities that may try to deflect migrants by offering them poor living conditions?     

Long-term land-use changes in small/medium-sized cities. Enhancing the general trends and local characteristics

Small and medium-sized cities represent the backbone of the European territory, promoting cohesion and an economic base for development. The study compares the spatial and temporal trajectories of land use in three small/medium-sized cities located in central Portugal, between 1958 and 2011. The cities of Viseu, Leiria and Castelo Branco were chosen because they are located in different urban sub-systems and because of the different factors that frame their alterations in land use, occupation and consequent urban development. The research evaluates the transformations, supported by indicators to explain the spatial dynamics of losses and gains and a principal component analysis compares the land-use trajectories for the three cities. The general results reveal an increase from the central part of the study areas to the periphery, contrasting with a continuous decrease of the agricultural parts, illustrating peri-urbanization and rururbanization processes. The study allows identification of the dynamics in the three analysed areas, highlighting the different rhythms of change and relating them to the particularities that exist in each city. The methodology represents an advantage for the analysis and evaluation of territorial dynamics related to land-use change, and made possible the identification of the different forces.     

Troublesome trends: population growth,distribution, migration

The upcoming International Conference on Population and Development and its draft plan of action call for international cooperation in protecting and assisting refugees and displaced persons and in assuring positive consequences in host and origin countries. The draft plan also aims to protect the elderly through enhancing self-reliance and continued work and independent living in their own communities. Social support systems for the elderly must also be strengthened. The document is also concerned with the movement of population to cities and across borders. Recommendations on migration encourage governments to evaluate the impact of economic and environmental policies on population distribution and migration, to promote development of medium-sized urban centers, to encourage rural economic development and placement of industries in rural areas, and to support access to land ownership or use and access to water resources in rural areas. Rural infrastructure and social services need to be improved. Grassroots organizations and cooperatives for establishing credit and marketing products are emphasized. Weak local area management is an obstacle to socioeconomic development, environmental protection, and population distribution. Waste, water, and land management strategies should be adopted. Prevention of the root causes of displacement is particularly important when environmental damage is the consequence or the cause. Women, children, and the elderly who are displaced need protection. Refugee numbers have swelled from 8.5 million in 1985 to 19 million in 1993. Sudden and mass refugee arrivals should be afforded temporary protection until a solution can be found. Conditions must be created for safe and dignified, voluntary repatriation. The social and economic integration of documented, longterm migrants must be assured.     

High-skilled Return Migration and Knowledge-based Development in Poland

It is by now well known that return migration of the highly skilled can have a significant impact on knowledge-based development in the regions to which they return. Whereas previous research has mainly focused on developing and newly industrializing countries, this paper looks at high-skilled return migration in an East European transformation economy, namely Poland. In our paper, we propose an analytical framework which integrates migration theory and regional development perspectives. Based on narrative interviews with high-skilled return migrants in Warsaw and Poznań, we show that high-skilled return migrants have an impact on economic development by acting as both investors and innovators, i.e. that they transfer and successfully integrate financial means as well as different types of knowledge into these local economies. Furthermore, the Polish example illustrates that social relations and institutional context are crucial in understanding how high-skilled return migrants contribute to knowledge-based development.     

吉林省城市体系等级规模结构研究

等级规模结构是城市体系的三大结构之一,其特征可以反映出城市在不同规模层次中的分布状况及城市人口集中或分散的程度,有助于认识城市体系发展所处的阶段。通过统计数据计算分析,运用分形理论,发现吉林省城市体系等级规模结构满足位序-规模分布规律,城市规模分布的均衡程度较高,中小城市比较发育,首位城市垄断作用不突出,缺乏大城市。在吉林省城市体系动态变化过程中,等级规模结构相对稳定且不断趋于集中。在此基础上提出重点培育通化、延吉等大城市;继续扩大长春规模,发挥整体效益;加强交通网络建设;加快矿业城市可持续发展等建议。     

基于分形理论的长株潭城市群等级规模结构研究及对策

运用城市群等级规模结构分形理论和方法,对长株潭"3+5"城市群(以下简称"3+5"城市群)的等级规模结构进行了实证研究,通过测算几年来"3+5"城市群等级规模分布的分维值,得出结论:"3+5"城市群规模分布符合分形特征;模型拟合认为其人口、经济分布的分维值均大于1,表明"3+5"城市群等级规模结构集中,已处于发展的相对成熟阶段。为此在对这些特征做出解释的基础上,认为可从强化首位城市、加快长株潭一体化建设、提升次中心城市、重点发展中小城市、加快小城镇建设等方面着手对长株潭城市群等级规模结构进行优化。     

How to deal with migrants and the State’s backlash – Polish cities’ experience

Over the last decades, Poland has witnessed a relatively dynamic increase in the number of immigrants. At the same time, current Polish central authorities, politicians of the ruling party and the majority of the population perceive migrants mostly as a threat and a challenge. Municipal authorities lack complex support from central authorities. However, the situation is slowly changing. Some Polish cities are adopting migration policies or including migration issues in the local development strategies. Considering this, the article aims to examine migrants’ integration policies in selected Polish cites considered leaders in this field: Lublin, Gdańsk, Kraków and Wroc?aw. The main research question is: how do Polish cities deal with the backlash from the national government and absence of clear legal regulations on their role and competences in the area of migrant integration? The research method is that of a legal-institutional analysis and case study. The former is used to interpret the legal acts and other documents. Its application is justified by the fact that this paper examines strategic documents adopted at the level of urban governments regarding the integration of migrants. Case study methods made it possible to examine the migrants’ integration policy in four Polish cities.     

城镇化的新形式与中国的人口城镇化政策

本文从三个方面讨论了发展中国家城镇化进程不同于发达国家相应发展阶段的特点及由此产生的新的城镇化形式对我国城镇化政策的影响,分析了上述城镇化的新特点和新形式在我国人口迁移和城镇化政策上的意义,认为相关研究和方针、政策的制定必须对上述新特点和新形式予以更多的关注。     

全球化视角下的世界城市网络理论

城市诞生时就相互保持着联系,只有将城市纳入世界城市网络中才能正确把握城市产生和发展的本质。1980年以来在第三次全球化浪潮的背景下,世界生产要素和产品市场开始整合,世界城市的兴起是国际劳动分工在空间上的表达。Cohen、Friedmann、Sassen、Castells和Taylor等学者提出并发展了世界城市理论,世界城市网络理论已经成为研究城市问题的重要框架。联系数据的缺乏长期制约了世界城市网络的实证研究,二十世纪九十年代中期以来学者们创新性地解决了方法论的问题,对世界城市网络的各个层面进行了实证研究。     

东部地区流动人口城市融入的比较研究

以东部地区城市特色比较明显的6个城市的问卷调查为基础,结合中国的实际情况构建了衡量流动人口城市融入的指标体系,通过主成分分析对6个城市流动人口的城市融入程度进行了比较。研究发现6个城市流动人口融入程度存在着明显的差异,环渤海的青岛和沈阳流动人口的城市融入程度最高,而珠江三角洲地区的东莞和长三角的温州流动人口的城市融入程度最低,介于两者之间的是长江三角洲地区的无锡和京津冀地区的北京。总体而言,北方城市流动人口的融入程度总体上要高于南方城市。流动人口城市融入程度的差异反映了城市特色或性质的不同。城市规模、城市所在区域的文化特色、城市经济特征、流动人口在总人口中的比例都是影响城市融入的重要因素。对于南北方流动人口城市融入的差异,方言具有很大的影响,推广普通话有利于流动人口的城市融入。     

Third-world development: urbanizing for the future

This article reviews some issues reflected in the 1996 UN Habitat II agenda and recent research on urbanization. The themes of the 1996 Habitat conference were urban development, urban poverty, and governance, civil society, and social capital. It is expected that over 50% of total world population will live in cities in the year 2000. Cities are viewed both as engines of economic growth and centers of severe economic, environmental, and social problems. There is some disagreement about whether cities are rational economic structures or what the World Bank's urban agenda is and its relationship with macroeconomic policy. Discussions of global urban issues are criticized for their neglect of issues of equity and poverty, cultural diversity, and identity and representation. Habitat II also stressed urban sustainability. There is growing recognition that urban management involves more than the "Brown Agenda" of environmental and physical aspects of urban growth. Recent studies identify how politics and power affect people's access to basic urban services. Urban economic activity can also contribute to environmental problems. Urban growth affects the provision of health services. Although there is not a consensus on the role of cities in expanding economic and social development and the best management practices, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that urban processes are varied throughout the developing world. The links between urban and rural areas differentiate cities and expose the need to understand the role of intermediate urban areas surrounding and between larger cities. Poverty has become increasingly urbanized, but the extent of poverty is unknown. Habitat II was an unprecedented effort to engage nongovernment groups, local government staff, trade unions, and the private sector and to emphasize community participation. Networks of trust and reciprocity are key to solving poverty, inequality, and disempowerment problems.     

‘Green cities’ going greener? Local environmental policy-making and place branding in the ‘Greenest City in Europe’

A growing number of cities around the world have taken advantage of their green image of the purpose of place branding. In the research literature, it is suggested that these practices are motivated by place-based competition over financial and social capital, combined with more holistic motives of sustainable urban development. However, although an increasing number of green cities are engaged in place branding, few studies have researched the impact of place branding on environmental policy-making in a city, building up to the question: how is local environmental policy-making affected by green place branding? Addressing this issue, this paper critically investigates how the continuity of local environmental policy-making is affected by place-branding practices. To tackle this task, the paper firstly develops an analytical framework aiming to understand how green cities emerge and become famous based on their policy-making. Secondly, using that framework, this paper present an in-depth case study of a city branding itself as the ‘Greenest City in Europe’. Drawing on the growing body of work on green cities, this paper investigates the ‘understudied’ practice of using policy for the purpose of place branding as well as the impact of place branding ‘on the environment’.     

基于腾讯迁徙大数据的长三角城市群春运人口流动时空特征

开展城市群人口流动研究对促进区域人口有序流动和城市群协同发展具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。本文基于腾讯迁徙大数据，运用GIS空间统计和K-shell分解等方法，从人口流动总量、位序、时序和网络层级等方面，对我国长三角城市群2018年春运期间的人口流动特征进行系统研究。结果表明：①长三角城市群春运期间大规模的“返乡流”和“返城流”呈现明显的对称性，并分别于除夕和第一个工作日达到最高峰。②经济发展水平相对较高的上海、苏州、杭州等为劳动力输入型城市，而经济发展水平相对较低的盐城、安庆和滁州等为劳动力输出型城市。③长三角城市群内部人口流动网络具有明显的层级特征，其中上海和杭州是人口辐射核心城市，上海-合肥、上海-南京、上海-杭州等是人口流动的主体路径；空间上东部-西部横向人口流动最为频繁，大体呈现“Z”字形。