PROBLEMS OF THE LEVEL OF THE CASPIAN AND THE STABILITY OF ITS SHORELINE

The first of two papers on the problem of forecasting the level of the Caspian Sea evaluates factors widely believed to have been responsible for its lowering during much of the present century (including tectonic movements, climatic cycles, human activity). It concludes that previous forecasts have been inaccurate because of the failure to adequately model the complexity of processes involved, specifically the internal mechanisms of “self-regulation” of water levels. Continuation of the recent slight rise in the Caspian's level is predicted at least into the early 1990s (translated by Andrew R. Bond).