China's Demographic and Urban Trends for the 21st Century

This paper assesses remarkable and far-reaching changes under way as China enters the 21st century. Among the most significant are the rapid decline in fertility and birth rates, leading to a slowdown in the rate of population growth and a reduction in the growth rate of the labor force. This occurs against the backdrop of continuing structural shift in the economy from a rural-based economy to one increasingly urban-based with growing employment in manufacturing and services. Oshima's conceptual framework for the demographic and industrial transition in Asia is invoked to help explain conditions of change in China. Urbanization proceeds in parallel with these economic changes, and a key feature of transition will be the growth of cities and towns of all sizes. The regional pattern of urbanization will proceed at different rates, with coastal regions advancing most rapidly owing to stronger linkages to the global economy. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O10, O18. 3 figures, 6 tables, 36 references.